789
FXUS63 KMQT 192114
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
414 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING SUBZERO FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE INTERIOR WEST HALF OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. MUCH OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES FAIL TO RISE ABOVE ZERO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HOMEOWNERS AND PROPERTY MANAGERS SHOULD TAKE ACTION NOW FOR
THIS COLD PERIOD, ESPECIALLY IF PAST VERY COLD PERIODS HAVE
YIELDED IMPACTS. ENSURE YOUR WINTER CAR SURVIVAL KIT IS UP-TO-
DATE. LIMIT TIME OUTDOORS FOR YOU AND YOUR PETS, AND CHECK ON
VULNERABLE NEIGHBORS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- FREQUENT WHITEOUTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE FALLING SNOW
BEING A FINE, POWDERY TYPE SNOW THAT IS HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT
REDUCING VISIBILITY. EXPECT VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS
IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.
- NO WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FOR UPPER MI THROUGH THIS
WEEK. NEARLY ALL OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT
DRIVEN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 344 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
WIND SNOW BELTS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH TONIGHT. BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING ARCTIC AIR INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. CURRENT GROUND-BASED OBS
ARE REPORTING -8 DEGREES AND -4 DEGREES IN IRONWOOD AND WAKEFIELD,
RESPECTIVELY, WITH MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. ELSEWHERE, THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE U.P. IS GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AT THIS
TIME. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMETING TO THE -30C MARK TONIGHT,
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. ALL OF UPPER
MICHIGAN WILL BE BELOW ZERO TONIGHT WITH THE INTERIOR WEST NEAR
-20F. SO, COLD ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF UPPER
MICHIGAN. IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE TODAY, DRESS WARMLY IN LAYERS
AND MAKE SURE TO HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE IN
CASE OF EMERGENCY. LIMIT EXPOSURE OUTSIDE FOR YOU, YOUR FAMILY,
AND YOUR PETS!
IN ADDITION TO THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALGER AND LUCE COUNTIES WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SUPPORTING 3 TO 6 INCHES (LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO
10 INCHES) OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH TONIGHT. DUE TO THE
FINE/POWDERY COMPOSITION OF THE SNOW, WHITEOUT CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF M-28 AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AND, DUE TO AN UPTICK IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF ONTONAGON
AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THOSE COUNTIES AS WELL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 2 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THAT
WESTERN SECTOR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO -30C MOVE THROUGH THE U.P. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THIS POLAR PLUNGE IS AIDED BY A HIGH PRESSURE BLOCK
DROPPING DOWN FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY
THIS WEEK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES BETWEEN 1040 AND 1050MB OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY THIS WEEK AND A DEEPENING LOW LIFTING FROM
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO SOUTHERN GREENLAND TO AROUND 960MB
(ACCORDING TO THE NAEFS), NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE MONDAY
BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
LARGE SPREAD IN AREA BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES AND DEEPENING
LOW ISN'T CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA, IT WILL BE
ENOUGH TO PLUMMET WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -25F IN THE FAR EAST TO AROUND
-45F IN THE FAR WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THUS,
FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA COULD SET IN WITHIN 10 MINUTES OR LESS IN
THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING, AND
WITHIN 30 MINUTES OR LESS EVERYWHERE ELSE. THEREFORE, COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WEATHER WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA. IN ADDITION, EXPECT TO SEE
COMPOUNDING STRESS FROM THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO BRING VERY LITTLE
RELIEF; HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUBZERO IN THE INTERIOR WEST AND
CENTRAL, WITH WIND CHILLS FAILING TO EVEN CRACK -25F NEAR IRONWOOD
MONDAY AND TUESDAY DURING THE DAY! THUS, THIS WILL BE A DANGEROUS
COLD WEATHER EVENT FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS LIKE THE HOMELESS,
ELDERLY, AND YOUNG. THEREFORE, BE WILLING TO HELP YOUR NEIGHBOR IF
YOU SEE OR KNOW SOMEONE WHO NEEDS HELP EARLY THIS WEEK WITH
HEATING/STAYING WARM; TRY TO GET THE HOMELESS INTO ANY WARM
SPACES/SHELTERS IF THEY ARE WILLING, CHECK IN ON YOUR ELDERLY
NEIGHBORS, AND MAKE SURE TO KEEP YOUR YOUNG ONES INSIDE. IN
ADDITION, WHILE YOU SHOULD HAVE TAKEN THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS BY
NOW, IF YOU HAVEN'T, THEN MAKE SURE TO GET YOUR ANIMALS INTO
SHELTERED AND WARMER SPACES; LIMIT YOUR PETS'/ANIMALS' TIME OUTSIDE
TOO. ANY PLANTS YOU WANT TO KEEP ALIVE SHOULD BE BROUGHT INSIDE TOO,
AS THE GROWING FROST DEPTH COULD EVEN DAMAGE SOME DORMANT CROPS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WHERE THERE IS MORE AGRICULTURE
AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. SPEAKING OF THE FROST DEPTH, WHILE THIS
IS VERY TRICKY TO FORECAST FOR GIVEN THE FEW OBSERVATIONS AND
LITTLE, IF ANY, FORECAST DATA WE HAVE ON THE MATTER, WE CAN EXPECT
IT TO GENERALLY TREND DEEPER INTO THE EARTH IN THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE
LITTLE TO NO SNOW COVER. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME PIPES TO FREEZE UP,
IN ADDITION TO CAUSING DAMAGE TO DORMANT CROPS; WHILE WE DON'T KNOW
THAT 'MAGIC' NUMBER FOR HOW DEEP THE FROST DEPTH WOULD HAVE TO BE IN
ORDER TO ACHIEVE THIS, THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM A DEEPENING FROST
DEPTH LOOK TO OCCUR IN THE INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AWAY FROM
LAKE SUPERIOR. THEREFORE, BE SURE RUN A FAUCET DRIP EARLY THIS WEEK
TO HELP PREVENT YOUR WATER LINES FROM FREEZING UP, ESPECIALLY IN THE
INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL (THIS ISN'T AS MUCH OF A CONCERN IN
THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS AS THE SNOW COVER SHOULD INSULATE THE
AREA FROM FROST GOING DEEPER INTO THE GROUND). TEMPERATURES FINALLY
BEGIN TO WARM UP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND LIFTING OFF OF THE U.P. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES PER 12 HOURS
OVER THE WESTERN NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS MONDAY, WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES PER 12 HOURS POSSIBLE. AS FOR THE EASTERN
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS, EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES TO BE A LITTLE
HIGHER, GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 5 INCH RANGE PER 12 HOURS, WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES PER 12 HOURS POSSIBLE. THUS, WE CAN
EXPECT GENERALLY 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
KEWEENAW TO ROCKLAND, AND THEN FROM A LINE FROM ROCKLAND TO THE
PORKIES, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO A FOOT POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.P.. AS FOR THE EAST, EXPECT TO SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO
12 INCHES FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BETWEEN MUNISING AND
NEWBERRY, WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 18 INCHES POSSIBLE NORTH OF M-
28. IN ADDITION, WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING REALIZED
NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE DUE TO THE CLOSURE OF M-28,
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE VERY
FINE, POWDERY/SAND-LIKE SNOW WILL BE EASY FOR EVEN LIGHT WINDS AND
VEHICLES TO BLOW AROUND. THEREFORE, WATCH OUT FOR LOCALIZED WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS BEHIND MOTOR VEHICLES AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE MONDAY TO MONDAY EVENING OVER THE NORTHWEST WIND
SNOW BELTS. WITH ALL THESE FACTORS IN MIND, WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ONTONAGON, NORTHERN HOUGHTON, ALGER,
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES UNTIL 12Z TUESDAY MORNING.
AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY DUE TO THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY, EXPECT THE WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS TO LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA TUESDAY, WITH THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL ENDING TUESDAY EVENING AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVES
INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF AN INCOMING CLIPPER LOW FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES.
OUR NEXT ROUND OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO COME AROUND WEDNESDAY AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE DOES LOOK
TO BE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING SOME LIGHT AND FLUFFY SNOWFALL TO THE
SURFACE AS THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS WARMS INTO THE DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE, WITH A SYSTEM IN THE GULF STARVING THE CLIPPER OF MOISTURE,
EXPECT THE SNOW TOTALS TO BE VERY LIGHT, GENERALLY HALF AN INCH OR
LESS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE FAR EAST NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE SOME SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAY BRING SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BEHIND THE CLIPPER, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS.
ONCE WE GET MOVE LATE THIS WEEK, QUITE A BIT OF MODEL SPREAD
DEVELOPS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A SHORTWAVE HIGH WILL ROLL THROUGH LATE
IN THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER POSSIBLY IMPACTS THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THESE FEATURES IS HIGH DUE TO THIS BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT. IT DOES
LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE 'NORMAL' TEMPERATURES RETURN TOWARDS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, IT DOES SEEM LIKE WE WILL SLIP
INTO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
PLUNGE OF COLD (NOT NEARLY AS INTENSE) AIR LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES DUE TO LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW, BUT WORST CONDITIONS REMAIN AT IWD AND CMX.
IWD WILL MAINLY TREND TOWARD MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR, WHILE CMX
WILL PREVAIL AT IFR AND FURTHER DETERIORATE TO LIFR AT TIMES.
MEANWHILE, MVFR CONDITIONS AT SAW SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
TODAY WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT IS NOT AS PREDOMINANT. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS WILL CONTINUE THE BLOWING
SNOW/REDUCED VISIBILITY THREAT AT IWD AND CMX.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 413 PM EST SUN JAN 19 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR
ROTATES THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE CORE OF THE
COLDEST AIR, EXPECT THE WINDS TO BACK TO THE WEST MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH WINDS INCREASING
TO 25 TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT; THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF ISLE ROYALE, WITH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE GIVING AROUND A
30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS. ONCE A CLIPPER
DIVING FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT THE WINDS TO BEGIN DYING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST,
BECOMING NORTHWEST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE
THE HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ENDED BY WEDNESDAY, THE
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-003.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
TO 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ MONDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-007-
011>013-084.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ MONDAY TO 1 PM
EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-011>013-084.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-
085.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-014-085.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-
014-085.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST MONDAY FOR MIZ009-010.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ009-010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY
FOR LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP
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