049
FXUS63 KMQT 202006
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
306 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING SUBZERO PROBABLY THROUGH WED
MORNING FOR MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
- ENSURE YOUR WINTER CAR SURVIVAL KIT IS UP-TO-DATE. LIMIT TIME
OUTDOORS FOR YOU AND YOUR PETS, AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE NEIGHBORS
THROUGH THIS COLD SNAP.
- FREQUENT WHITEOUTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST WIND SNOW BELTS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE FALLING SNOW BEING A FINE, POWDERY
TYPE SNOW THAT IS HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY.
EXPECT VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THESE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AREAS.
- NO WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FOR UPPER MI THROUGH THIS
WEEK. NEARLY ALL OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT
DRIVEN.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, LEADING TO
TEMPERATURES REMAINING SUBZERO THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE INTERIOR
WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
- FREQUENT WHITEOUTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE FALLING SNOW BEING A FINE,
POWDERY TYPE SNOW THAT IS HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY.
EXPECT VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AREAS.
- NO WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FOR UPPER MI THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE SNOW THAT OCCURS WILL
BE LAKE EFFECT DRIVEN.
- EXPECT A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR OUR
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 512 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACTS AND CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING
ARCTIC AIR INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING NEAR THE -30C MARK TODAY INTO TONIGHT, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. HIGHS TODAY OVER
THE WEST HALF WILL PROBABLY ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO READINGS EXPECTED EAST HALF.
ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT WITH
GENERALLY - 10F TO -25F OVER THE INTERIOR, COLDEST WEST. SO,
COLD ADVISORIES AND EXTREME COLD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS ALL OF UPPER MICHIGAN. IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE TODAY OR
TONIGHT, DRESS WARMLY IN LAYERS AND MAKE SURE TO HAVE A WINTER
SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF EMERGENCY. LIMIT
EXPOSURE OUTSIDE FOR YOU, YOUR FAMILY, AND YOUR PETS!
IN ADDITION TO THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES, LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT ALGER AND LUCE AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES
WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SUPPORTING 3 TO 7 INCHES THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 10 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN ALGER AND NORTHERN LUCE COUNTIES WHERE
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY LAND BREEZES.
WITH THE EXPECTED WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW, ONLY AN INCH OR LESS OF
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM MUNISING WESTWARD. AND, DUE TO AN
UPTICK IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF ONTONAGON AND NORTHERN HOUGHTON, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BIGGER IMPACT
FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LIKELY BE THE EXTENSIVE BLOWING SNOW
ACCOMPANYING IT DUE TO THE FINER FLAKE SIZE, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS UNDER THE LES BANDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF THE SAME WEATHER PATTERN (STEEP RIDGING OVER
WESTERN CANADA, DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES), AN ACTIVE
PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP BEYOND THE MIDWEEK AS THE FIRST IN A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TRANSITS THROUGH THE MIDWEST REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE
MIGHT NOT HAVE MASSIVE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DUE TO WEAKENING
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AS IT ARRIVES AND OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES ROBBING
IT OF NEEDED MOISTURE TRANSPORT, BUT THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL
BRING AT LEAST MORE SEASONAL AIR OVER THE UP IN CONTRAST TO THE
CURRENTLY ONGOING DANGEROUS COLD AIR. WHILE DETAILS IN TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE FOLLOWING SHORTWAVES IS STILL HIGH, THE GEFS SHOWS
ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCAL RIDGING THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE PASSES FRIDAY. FROM THERE, MORE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED,
BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN ANY DETAILS BEYOND THE GENERAL
PATTERN. IN A LONGWAVE PERSPECTIVE, BY SUNDAY, A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN
SETS UP AS A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PUTTING
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW (ASIDE FROM
PASSING SHORTWAVES).
HAZARDOUS COLD AND WIND CHILLS WILL BE ONGOING TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BREAK THE 0 F MARK FOR ALL EXCEPT
KEWEENAW COUNTY AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE UP, AND EVEN THEN, ONLY
LOW SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED. WHILE LARGE-SCALE SURFACE FEATURES
ARE FAR DISPLACED FROM THE UP (GEFS MEAN LOW OF 961MB OVER THE
LABRADOR SEA AND 1050MB HIGH OVER COLORADO), THE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHT ENOUGH TO FORCE 10-20 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH.
THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW WIND CHILLS TO "WARM" FROM THE -30S AND -40S TO
THE -20S AND NEGATIVE TEENS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN
VULNERABLE LIFE AND PROPERTY WITH LITTLE TO NO REPRIEVE FROM THE
BRUTAL COLD AND WIND CHILL. CURRENT COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE
KEPT AS IS, AS THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AROUND WHETHER OR NOT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN WARNING CRITERIA OR WILL SIMPLY BE
ADVISORY-LEVEL DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE AS THEY
WERE, ONE THING THAT WILL CHANGE WILL BE THE ONGOING LAKE EFFECT
SNOW, AS SURFACE RIDGING PUSHING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE
MIDWEST WILL FORCE WINDS TO BE MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY,
PUSHING LAKE EFFECT TO THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND ONLY THE
SHORELINES EAST OF MUNISING, EVENTUALLY COMPLETELY OFFSHORE. HREF
MEAN 6-HOURLY PRECIP OF 0.1" OR MORE WILL BE LIMITED ALMOST ENTIRELY
TO NORTH OF THE PORTAGE CANAL. WITH TOTAL SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 2 INCHES UP-WIDE, EXTENSIONS IN ANY ONGOING
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ATTENTION TURNS UPSTREAM TO A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BELT OF HIGH PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM THE VIRGINIAS TO TEXAS WILL KEEP ANY OCEANIC MOISTURE
TRANSPORT SOURCES FROM CONTRIBUTING TO THIS SYSTEM, AND GIVEN PRIOR
SIMILAR SETUPS IN MOISTURE-STARVED CLIPPERS THIS SEASON, ONLY A
COUPLE TO A FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS
IT PASSES WEDNESDAY. THE CHANGING OF THE FLOW WITH THE CLIPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH POTENT WARM ADVECTION TO BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. WHILE THIS IS
STILL A HANDFUL OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (AT LEAST), THIS WILL BE A
WELCOME BREAK FROM THE SUBZERO CONDITIONS, THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
DIP BELOW ZERO IN THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WEDNESDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL STILL BE AROUND THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLD BUT WILL CERTAINLY WARM ABOVE THEN
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND SHOULD BE AROUND THE 0 DEGREE MARK BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON (40-70% CHANCE OF ABOVE 0 WIND CHILLS ACCORDING TO
THE LREF FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON).
MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS NBM HIGHS
IN THE LOW 20S FRIDAY ONWARDS ARE MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS LONG AS LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN ITS
CURRENT MAINLY ICE-FREE STATE, TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WAKE OF ANY PASSING SHORTWAVES, AND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, THE MOST COMMON 925MB WIND DIRECTION
REMAINS NWERLY, SO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE EXPECTED REGIME FOR
LES BANDS TO SET UP IN FOLLOWING ANY CLIPPERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT IWD AND CMX
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MOST AFFECTED WILL BE CMX WHERE HEAVIER LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CREATE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. IWD, ON THE
OTHER HAND, WILL TREND MORE TOWARD MVFR WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE, SAW HAS RETURNED TO VFR WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO
STAY. MEANWHILE, STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO 25
KTS AT ALL SITES, RESULTING IN BLOWING SNOW/VISIBILITY THREATS AT
CMX.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 438 AM EST MON JAN 20 2025
TO BEGIN THE WEEK, STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LABRADOR SEA AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY, SHIFTING TO BE
MORE WESTERLY BY TUESDAY AS LOCAL HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO
WISCONSIN. WHILE A LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUST CAN'T BE RULED OUT
(~20% CHANCE) IN SOUTHEASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, WIDESPREAD GALES ARE
NOT EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO NEAR 30 KT, WITH
CHANCES OF GALES OF AROUND 40% FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS THE CLIPPER
DEPARTS, WINDS FALL TO AROUND 20 KT OUT OF PRIMARILY THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, PRIMARILY WESTERLY
AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED, WITH GALES NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY (30% CHANCE) DEPENDENT ON THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH SOME OF THE
MOST FRIGID AIR OF THE LAST FEW YEARS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS WAVES OF 3-8 FEET WILL ALLOW FOR SUPERCOOLED SPRAY TO
FORM.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ002-004-005-011>013-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-006-
007-085.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ THIS EVENING TO
1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-004-005-011>013-
084.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-014-
085.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-
014-085.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MIZ009-010.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...GS
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