424
FXUS63 KMQT 210434
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1134 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, LEADING
TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING SUBZERO THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
- FREQUENT WHITEOUTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND
SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE FALLING
SNOW BEING A FINE, POWDERY TYPE SNOW THAT IS HIGHLY EFFECTIVE
AT REDUCING VISIBILITY. EXPECT VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.
- NO WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FOR UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE SNOW THAT
OCCURS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT DRIVEN.
- EXPECT A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
OUR AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THIS ARCTIC STRETCH IS STILL AHEAD TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW. COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL SINK TO -25F. ELSEWHERE, THE
REMAINDER OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE -10F TO -20F
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG WNW
WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE -40F TO -45F RANGE. EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT ACROSS GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES
WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE -5 TO -10F RANGE. MOST
OF THE REMAINING COUNTIES ACROSS THE U.P. WILL ALSO FALL UNDER
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH ALL OF
THE U.P. EXCEPT LUCE AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES UNDER AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING. IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE TONIGHT, DRESS
WARMLY IN LAYERS AND MAKE SURE TO HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF EMERGENCY. LIMIT EXPOSURE OUTSIDE FOR YOU, YOUR
FAMILY, AND YOUR PETS!
ALSO OF NOTE, ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ONTONAGON, NORTHERN HOUGHTON, ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE
COUNTIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS IN THE 3
TO 5 INCH RANGE ACROSS ADVISORY AREAS AND LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 8
TO 10 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THE M-28 CORRIDOR NEAR THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY TREACHEROUS DUE TO
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN BLOWING, POWDERY SNOW (MUNISING
EASTWARD TO PINE LAKE AND AS FAR SOUTH AS SENEY).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BEGINS LIFTING FROM THE U.P. TUESDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DIGS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -30F IN THE EAST AND -45F IN
THE WEST LOOK TO GREET US TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE WE WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME, WITH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR
ONLY JUST LEAVING THE AREA AROUND THAT TIME, EXPECT HIGHS TO REMAIN
SUBZERO IN THE CENTRAL AND WEST AND FOR WIND CHILLS TO STILL REMAIN
IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE AREA. THUS, IT
WILL STILL NOT BE SAFE TO SPEND TOO MUCH TIME OUTSIDE ON TUESDAY. AS
THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY, EXPECT THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL TO LIFT OFF OF THE KEWEENAW AND EAST NEAR GRAND
MARAIS THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, WITH THE U.P. BECOMING
SNOWFALL-FREE BY EVENING. WHILE THE SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
LIGHTEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WE COULD STILL SEE 1 TO 4 INCHES FALL
NORTH OF HOUGHTON AND AROUND THE GRAND MARAIS AREA; BE CAREFUL IN
THE SNOW BANDS AS LOCALIZED WHITEOUTS COULD STILL OCCUR BEHIND
VEHICLES AND IN THE PATCHES OF BLOWING SNOW GIVEN THE FINE, POWDERY
NATURE OF THE SNOW.
A PATTERN SHIFT TOWARDS MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CLIPPER LOW
DIGGING INTO OUR REGION RAISES TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, EXPECT THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS TO OCCUR THIS EVENING AND NOT LONG
AFTER SUNSET; MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS THE WARMING ACROSS OUR AREA BY
MIDNIGHT OR EARLIER TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE, WHILE WE CAN STILL
EXPECT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS TO
NEGATIVE TEENS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S, EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUS, WHILE WE MAY HAVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES
OUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WE MAY SEE
THEM DROP OFF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE. IN ADDITION TO BRINGING WARMER WEATHER, THE
CLIPPER IS LOOKING TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA TOO.
EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM DOWN IN THE GULF WILL STARVE THE CLIPPER OF
MOISTURE, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE LEFT IN IT TO PRODUCE UP TO
A HALF INCH OF POSSIBLY FLUFFY SNOW ACROSS THE AREA (THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY POSSIBLY WARM JUST ENOUGH TO HAVE THE MID AND
LOWER LEVELS SQUEAK BACK INTO THE COLD-END OF THE DGZ); WE MAY SEE
UP TO A COUPLE OF INCHES OVER THE FAR EAST (EASTERN SCHOOLCRAFT AND
LUCE COUNTY) LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOWFALL OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY AND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
REDEVELOP BEHIND IT OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS, WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. WHILE THE
CANADIAN SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A MESOLOW OVER THE EASTERN
LAKE, MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON ITS PLACEMENT LET ALONE WHETHER IT OCCURS
OR NOT IS STILL HIGH AT THIS TIME. SHOULD THE MESOLOW FORM HOWEVER,
WE COULD SEE SOME HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.P. THURSDAY.
RIDGING LOOKS TO RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DIG FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
AND THE TROUGHING WROUGHT BY THE CLIPPER LIFTS TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF THE FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN, WITH CLIPPER LOWS
FOLLOWED BY RIDGING. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES DURING THE BACK HALF OF
THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE
AROUND NORMAL; WHILE TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO GET ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, HIGHS AND LOWS MAY BECOME ABOVE
NORMAL AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIMES
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER LOWS. WHILE LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL STILL BE
EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLIPPER LOWS AND THE LAKE EFFECT
BEHIND THEM, NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IS REALLY PROJECTED FOR SNOWFALL
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL IN ALL, BY
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK EXPECT THE RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WEATHER FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CMX THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CMX WILL HAVE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT WILL CREATE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TUE
AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR. IWD, ON THE OTHER HAND WILL
BE VFR, BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY TO THE
NORTH. SAW WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 400 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LAKE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS, EXPECT HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY TO CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NORTHWEST WINDS TURN TO THE WEST AND THEN
SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW. WHILE WIDESPREAD
GALES AREN'T EXPECTED, SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED WIND CONVERGENCE
COULD PRODUCE GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS AT TIMES BETWEEN THIS
EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE SHOWING
CHANCES BETWEEN 50 AND 90+%. AS AN APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW MOVES
INTO THE LAKE WEDNESDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, EXPECT THE WINDS TO SWITCH TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST AT 20 TO POSSIBLY 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SETTLING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER LOW
MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK LOOKS TO BRING MORE SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS BACK ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEKEND; THERE IS UP
TO A 40% CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ001-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-006-
007-085.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ002-004-005-009>013-084.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ003.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-014-
085.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TAP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page