199
FXUS63 KMQT 210909
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
409 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY, LEADING
TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING SUBZERO THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
- FREQUENT WHITEOUTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND
SNOW BELTS THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE FALLING
SNOW BEING A FINE, POWDERY TYPE SNOW THAT IS HIGHLY EFFECTIVE
AT REDUCING VISIBILITY. EXPECT VERY HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.
- NO WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FOR UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE SNOW THAT
OCCURS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT DRIVEN.
- EXPECT A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
OUR AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THIS ARCTIC STRETCH IS STILL AHEAD TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW. COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE
INTERIOR WEST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL SINK TO -25F. ELSEWHERE, THE
REMAINDER OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE -10F TO -20F
RANGE. THESE TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG WNW
WINDS WILL PUSH WIND CHILLS INTO THE -40F TO -45F RANGE. EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS ARE ALREADY IN EFFECT ACROSS GOGEBIC AND IRON COUNTIES
WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE -5 TO -10F RANGE. MOST
OF THE REMAINING COUNTIES ACROSS THE U.P. WILL ALSO FALL UNDER
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE EVENING WITH ALL OF
THE U.P. EXCEPT LUCE AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES UNDER AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING. IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE TONIGHT, DRESS
WARMLY IN LAYERS AND MAKE SURE TO HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF EMERGENCY. LIMIT EXPOSURE OUTSIDE FOR YOU, YOUR
FAMILY, AND YOUR PETS!
ALSO OF NOTE, ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ONTONAGON, NORTHERN HOUGHTON, ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE
COUNTIES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BACK TO THE WEST TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW TOTALS IN THE 3
TO 5 INCH RANGE ACROSS ADVISORY AREAS AND LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 8
TO 10 INCHES OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THE M-28 CORRIDOR NEAR THE
LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE WILL REMAIN ESPECIALLY TREACHEROUS DUE TO
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN BLOWING, POWDERY SNOW (MUNISING
EASTWARD TO PINE LAKE AND AS FAR SOUTH AS SENEY).
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP FOR THE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSITS THROUGH THE MIDWEST
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE MIGHT NOT HAVE MASSIVE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DUE TO WEAKENING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AS IT
ARRIVES AND OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES ROBBING IT OF NEEDED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, BUT THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST MORE
SEASONAL AIR OVER THE UP IN CONTRAST TO THE CURRENTLY ONGOING
DANGEROUS COLD AIR. WHILE DETAILS IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
FOLLOWING SHORTWAVES IS STILL HIGH, THE GEFS SHOWS ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCAL RIDGING THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES
FRIDAY. FROM THERE, MORE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN ANY DETAILS BEYOND THE GENERAL PATTERN. IN A
LONGWAVE PERSPECTIVE, BY SUNDAY, A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETS UP AS A
CUTOFF LOW WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PUTTING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW (ASIDE FROM PASSING
SHORTWAVES).
ATTENTION TURNS UPSTREAM TO A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE
OVER NORTHERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BELT OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
FROM THE VIRGINIAS TO TEXAS WILL KEEP ANY OCEANIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SOURCES FROM CONTRIBUTING TO THIS SYSTEM, AND GIVEN PRIOR SIMILAR
SETUPS IN MOISTURE-STARVED CLIPPERS THIS SEASON, ONLY A COUPLE TO A
FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANGING OF THE FLOW WITH THE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR ENOUGH POTENT WARM ADVECTION TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. WHILE THIS IS STILL A HANDFUL
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (AT LEAST), THIS WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK
FROM THE SUBZERO CONDITIONS, THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BELOW
ZERO IN THE INTERIOR WEST FRIDAY MORNING. ONE FEATURE TO WATCH WITH
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM IS ANY POTENTIAL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALL AS DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WARM
ADVECTION, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
NEGATIVE TEENS ABOVE AN OPEN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HREF PUTS THE CORE
OF THIS ENHANCED PRECIPITATION JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA OVER THE FAR
EASTERN UP, BUT IF THE WIND PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY, MANISTIQUE AND
NEWBERRY COULD SEE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH'S PASSAGE
WITH LREF 6-HOURLY PRECIP RATES FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY ARE ONLY AROUND 0.01-0.05", MEANING THAT EVEN 20:1 SNOW
RATIOS COULD ONLY PRODUCE AROUND AN INCH OF FLUFF PER 6 HOURS, WITH
MOST PLACES SEEING LESS THAN THAT RATE OF SNOWFALL. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE IF SOME LOCAL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
EASTERN UP CAN BE REALIZED THURSDAY MORNING LIKE IN THE CANADIAN
DETERMINISTIC SUITES, IN WHICH CASE, UP TO 2"/6HR IS POSSIBLE. UNTIL
OTHER MODEL SUITES SHOW THIS POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION
IS LOW.
MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS NBM HIGHS
AROUND THE LOW 20S FRIDAY ONWARDS ARE MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS LONG AS LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN ITS
CURRENT MAINLY ICE-FREE STATE, TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WAKE OF ANY PASSING SHORTWAVES, AND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, THE MOST COMMON 925MB WIND DIRECTION
REMAINS NWERLY, SO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE EXPECTED REGIME FOR
LES BANDS TO SET UP IN FOLLOWING ANY CLIPPERS. HOWEVER, STRONG
SYNOPTIC SNOWS LOOK UNLIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MIDWEEK, WHEN
THERE'S A WEAK SIGNAL IN THE ENSEMBLES FOR A SUB-900MB LOW TO PASS
SOMEWHERE IN THE GREAT LAKES, THOUGH SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME
PERIOD, SO THIS PROSPECTIVE SYSTEM IS JUST AS LIKELY TO MISS THE UP
AS IT IS TO PROVIDE ANY WINTER IMPACTS. CPC OUTLOOKS FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY HIGHLIGHT SLIGHT FAVORING OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LIKELY STEMS FROM ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB
HEIGHT CHARTS FAVORING TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST CANADA TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, FAVORING
TRANSPORT OF COOLER AIR OVER STILL-OPEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES
(SAVE FOR BAYS, ETC THAT ARE ICING OVER CURRENTLY) WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED LES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CMX THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CMX WILL HAVE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT WILL CREATE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TUE
AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR. IWD, ON THE OTHER HAND WILL
BE VFR, BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY TO THE
NORTH. SAW WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
FOR TODAY, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW. A FEW ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST HALF OF THE LAKE, BUT CONFIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AT
ANY GIVEN TIME IS TOO SMALL TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING. AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 30 KT, WITH CHANCES OF GALES OF AROUND 50% FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IF THE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS, A GALE WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POST-CLIPPER NORTHWESTERLIES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, MAINLY WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
PRIMARILY WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED, WITH GALES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY (40%
CHANCE) DEPENDENT ON THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH SOME OF THE MOST FRIGID AIR OF THE LAST
FEW YEARS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WAVES OF UP TO
10 FEET FEET WILL ALLOW FOR SUPERCOOLED SPRAY TO FORM.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
006-007-085.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ002>006-009>014-084-085.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002>006-
009>014-084-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...GS
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