274
FXUS63 KMQT 211013
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
513 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SUBZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
- FREQUENT WHITEOUTS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WEST WIND SNOW BELTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW, DUE TO A FINE, POWDERY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THAT IS HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY.
- NO WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FOR UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE SNOW THAT
OCCURS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT DRIVEN.
- EXPECT A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
OUR AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM AS BITTER COLD
ARCTIC AIR OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY GRADUALLY BEGINS TO MODIFY
IN A WAA PATTERN BEGINNING TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS -26C TO -30C EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL RISE TO -17C TO -19C LATE TONIGHT IN WAA AHEAD OF
A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR
UPPER MICHIGAN IS WE STILL HAVE MORE BITTER COLD WEATHER IN STORE
FOR TODAY AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS GRADUALLY
"WARM" LATE TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO TO NEAR ZERO.
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF UPPER MICHIGAN IS EXPERIENCING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BLO ZERO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW TYPICAL COLD SPOT LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER, ARE ALREADY -20F TO -25F! TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY EVEN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MAX TEMPS
OVER THE WEST HALF WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO AND
PROBABLY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO FOR THE EAST HALF. MORE RECORD
COLD MAX TEMPS COULD BE BROKEN. CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO
THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE -10F TO
-15F RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO NEAR
THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE WAA CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND TROUGH MOVING IN FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO TO NEAR ZERO JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. INCREASINGLY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WIND CHILLS
INTO DANGEROUS TERRITORY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO
TRANSITION THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL
UPPER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS WIND CHILLS OF 25
BELOW TO 40 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING MODERATE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL
REMAIN NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU MUST GO
OUTSIDE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, DRESS WARMLY IN LAYERS AND MAKE SURE TO
HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF EMERGENCY.
LIMIT EXPOSURE OUTSIDE FOR YOU, YOUR FAMILY, AND YOUR PETS!
ALSO OF NOTE, ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ONTONAGON, ALGER, AND LUCE COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z, BUT AS WINDS BACK
FROM WNW TO W LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS WILL LIFT
OUT OF THESE COUNTIES. THE WEST WINDS HOWEVER WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND
KEWEENAW COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH, OVERALL
ACCUMULATION SHOULD ONLY BE UP TO 2 INCHES THE BLOWING SNOW WILL
CAUSE OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. IF
MOTORISTS MUST VENTURE OUT TODAY, DRESS WARMLY, TAKE IT SLOW, AND BE
SURE HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP FOR THE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSITS THROUGH THE MIDWEST
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE MIGHT NOT HAVE MASSIVE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL DUE TO WEAKENING SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AS IT
ARRIVES AND OTHER SYNOPTIC FEATURES ROBBING IT OF NEEDED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, BUT THE SHIFT IN THE PATTERN WILL BRING AT LEAST MORE
SEASONAL AIR OVER THE UP IN CONTRAST TO THE CURRENTLY ONGOING
DANGEROUS COLD AIR. WHILE DETAILS IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
FOLLOWING SHORTWAVES IS STILL HIGH, THE GEFS SHOWS ONLY A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOCAL RIDGING THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES
FRIDAY. FROM THERE, MORE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN ANY DETAILS BEYOND THE GENERAL PATTERN. IN A
LONGWAVE PERSPECTIVE, BY SUNDAY, A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN SETS UP AS A
CUTOFF LOW WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, PUTTING THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES IN A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW (ASIDE FROM PASSING
SHORTWAVES).
ATTENTION TURNS UPSTREAM TO A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE
OVER NORTHERN MN WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BELT OF HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED
FROM THE VIRGINIAS TO TEXAS WILL KEEP ANY OCEANIC MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SOURCES FROM CONTRIBUTING TO THIS SYSTEM, AND GIVEN PRIOR SIMILAR
SETUPS IN MOISTURE-STARVED CLIPPERS THIS SEASON, ONLY A COUPLE TO A
FEW TENTHS OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES
WEDNESDAY. THE CHANGING OF THE FLOW WITH THE CLIPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR ENOUGH POTENT WARM ADVECTION TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY INTO THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. WHILE THIS IS STILL A HANDFUL
OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (AT LEAST), THIS WILL BE A WELCOME BREAK
FROM THE SUBZERO CONDITIONS, THOUGH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP BELOW
ZERO IN THE INTERIOR WEST FRIDAY MORNING. ONE FEATURE TO WATCH WITH
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM IS ANY POTENTIAL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALL AS DESPITE THE RELATIVELY WARM
ADVECTION, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
NEGATIVE TEENS ABOVE AN OPEN LAKE MICHIGAN. THE HREF PUTS THE CORE
OF THIS ENHANCED PRECIPITATION JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CWA OVER THE FAR
EASTERN UP, BUT IF THE WIND PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY, MANISTIQUE AND
NEWBERRY COULD SEE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH'S PASSAGE
WITH LREF 6-HOURLY PRECIP RATES FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY ARE ONLY AROUND 0.01-0.05", MEANING THAT EVEN 20:1 SNOW
RATIOS COULD ONLY PRODUCE AROUND AN INCH OF FLUFF PER 6 HOURS, WITH
MOST PLACES SEEING LESS THAN THAT RATE OF SNOWFALL. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE IF SOME LOCAL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
EASTERN UP CAN BE REALIZED THURSDAY MORNING LIKE IN THE CANADIAN
DETERMINISTIC SUITES, IN WHICH CASE, UP TO 2"/6HR IS POSSIBLE. UNTIL
OTHER MODEL SUITES SHOW THIS POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION
IS LOW.
MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS NBM HIGHS
AROUND THE LOW 20S FRIDAY ONWARDS ARE MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE NORMAL
HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS LONG AS LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN ITS
CURRENT MAINLY ICE-FREE STATE, TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WAKE OF ANY PASSING SHORTWAVES, AND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, THE MOST COMMON 925MB WIND DIRECTION
REMAINS NWERLY, SO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE EXPECTED REGIME FOR
LES BANDS TO SET UP IN FOLLOWING ANY CLIPPERS. HOWEVER, STRONG
SYNOPTIC SNOWS LOOK UNLIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT MIDWEEK, WHEN
THERE'S A WEAK SIGNAL IN THE ENSEMBLES FOR A SUB-900MB LOW TO PASS
SOMEWHERE IN THE GREAT LAKES, THOUGH SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME
PERIOD, SO THIS PROSPECTIVE SYSTEM IS JUST AS LIKELY TO MISS THE UP
AS IT IS TO PROVIDE ANY WINTER IMPACTS. CPC OUTLOOKS FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY HIGHLIGHT SLIGHT FAVORING OF COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL FOR THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS LIKELY STEMS FROM ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB
HEIGHT CHARTS FAVORING TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST CANADA TO
THE GREAT LAKES AND RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, FAVORING
TRANSPORT OF COOLER AIR OVER STILL-OPEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES
(SAVE FOR BAYS, ETC THAT ARE ICING OVER CURRENTLY) WHICH SHOULD
SUPPORT CONTINUED LES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS/CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT CMX THROUGH
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. CMX WILL HAVE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS THAT WILL CREATE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE TUE
AFTERNOON WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS OCCUR. IWD, ON THE OTHER HAND WILL
BE VFR, BUT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND CLOUDS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY TO THE
NORTH. SAW WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 409 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
FOR TODAY, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW. A FEW ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST HALF OF THE LAKE, BUT CONFIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AT
ANY GIVEN TIME IS TOO SMALL TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING. AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 30 KT, WITH CHANCES OF GALES OF AROUND 50% FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
IF THE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARDS, A GALE WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POST-CLIPPER NORTHWESTERLIES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, MAINLY WESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
PRIMARILY WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED, WITH GALES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY (40%
CHANCE) DEPENDENT ON THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH SOME OF THE MOST FRIGID AIR OF THE LAST
FEW YEARS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE
IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WAVES OF UP TO
10 FEET FEET WILL ALLOW FOR SUPERCOOLED SPRAY TO FORM.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ001-007.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002-
006-007.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MIZ002>006-009>014-084-085.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
TO 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ002>006-
009>014-084-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ003.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...GS
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