287
FXUS63 KMQT 211957
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
257 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TODAY INTO TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SUBZERO THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD FOR MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
- FREQUENT WHITEOUTS AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WEST WIND SNOW BELTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE KEWEENAW, DUE TO A FINE, POWDERY LAKE
EFFECT SNOW THAT IS HIGHLY EFFECTIVE AT REDUCING VISIBILITY.
- NO WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLS FOR UPPER MI THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE SNOW THAT
OCCURS WILL BE LAKE EFFECT DRIVEN.
- EXPECT A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
OUR AREA BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 511 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM AS BITTER COLD
ARCTIC AIR OVER UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY GRADUALLY BEGINS TO MODIFY
IN A WAA PATTERN BEGINNING TONIGHT. 850 MB TEMPS -26C TO -30C EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL RISE TO -17C TO -19C LATE TONIGHT IN WAA AHEAD OF
A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR
UPPER MICHIGAN IS WE STILL HAVE MORE BITTER COLD WEATHER IN STORE
FOR TODAY AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS GRADUALLY
"WARM" LATE TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO TO NEAR ZERO.
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR OF UPPER MICHIGAN IS EXPERIENCING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BLO ZERO EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FEW TYPICAL COLD SPOT LOCATIONS OVER THE INTERIOR WEST, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER, ARE ALREADY -20F TO -25F! TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY EVEN UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AS MAX TEMPS
OVER THE WEST HALF WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO AND
PROBABLY AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BLO ZERO FOR THE EAST HALF. MORE RECORD
COLD MAX TEMPS COULD BE BROKEN. CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO
THE EVENING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK INTO THE -10F TO -15F
RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES BEFORE WAA CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND TROUGH MOVING IN FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THAT TIME, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS BLO ZERO TO NEAR ZERO JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE. INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE WIND CHILLS INTO
DANGEROUS TERRITORY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DECIDED TO TRANSITION
THE EXTREME COLD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
TO COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF WEST AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS WIND CHILLS OF 25 BELOW
TO 40 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING MODERATE SOMEWHAT BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR
25 BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF YOU MUST GO OUTSIDE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, DRESS WARMLY IN LAYERS AND MAKE SURE TO HAVE A
WINTER SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF EMERGENCY. LIMIT
EXPOSURE OUTSIDE FOR YOU, YOUR FAMILY, AND YOUR PETS!
ALSO OF NOTE, ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
ONTONAGON, ALGER, AND LUCE COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z, BUT AS WINDS BACK
FROM WNW TO W LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS WILL LIFT
OUT OF THESE COUNTIES. THE WEST WINDS HOWEVER WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND
KEWEENAW COUNTIES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALTHOUGH, OVERALL
ACCUMULATION SHOULD ONLY BE UP TO 2 INCHES THE BLOWING SNOW WILL
CAUSE OCCASIONAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL. IF
MOTORISTS MUST VENTURE OUT TODAY, DRESS WARMLY, TAKE IT SLOW, AND BE
SURE HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT IN YOUR VEHICLE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO SET UP FOR THE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND AS
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSITS THROUGH THE MIDWEST
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE DETAILS IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
FOLLOWING SHORTWAVES IS STILL HIGH, THERE IS A GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOCAL RIDGING FOR FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PASSES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FROM THERE, MORE SHORTWAVES (WITH
PLENTY OF SPREAD AMONG MODELS, AND VARYING DEGREES OF
STRENGTH/TIMING) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THESE
ARE EMBEDDED IN BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN SETS UP WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WEDNESDAY MORNING, A WEAKENING CLIPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE
BORDER OF NORTHERN MN, SET TO TRACK ALONG/NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FRO THE MID ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST TO TEXAS WILL CUT US OFF FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (AND ITS
MUCH-NEEDED MOISTURE), AND GIVEN PRIOR SIMILAR SETUPS IN MOISTURE-
STARVED CLIPPERS THIS SEASON, ONLY A COUPLE TO A FEW TENTHS OF
SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES WEDNESDAY. ONE
FEATURE TO WATCH WITH THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM IS ANY POTENTIAL
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALL AS DESPITE
THE RELATIVELY WARM ADVECTION, 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ABOVE AN OPEN LAKE MICHIGAN. CAMS
CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER BANDING EXTENDING INTO MACKINAC AND
CHIPPEWA COUNTIES, JUST EAST OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER, IF FUTURE FORECAST
CYCLES SHIFT THIS MORE WESTERLY, AT LEAST LUCE COUNTY COULD BE
CLIPPED BY SOME ADVISORY AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH'S PASSAGE WITH LREF 6-HOURLY
PRECIP RATES FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY ARE ONLY AROUND
0.01-0.05", AND SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 0.10" WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WHERE ANY LOCALIZED TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT CAN OCCUR IN THE
WESTERN UP. WILL ALSO NOTE THAT SOME OF THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN UP WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE OR MESO-LOW
DEVELOPMENT MOVING ONSHORE FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WITH SNOW
RATIOS ONLY PEAKING AT AROUND 20:1, AROUND AN AN INCH OF SNOW PER
SIX HOURS IS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE NW WIND SNOW
BELTS WED-THURS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 1-2IN/6HRS WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT IN THOSE AREAS OF LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT. INTO
THURSDAY, SLOWLY BACKING WINDS AND A DRIER AIRMASS WORKING IN AS A
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL CUT BACK ON SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COME IN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT MORE SEASONABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND
20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. AS LONG AS LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS
IN ITS CURRENT MAINLY ICE-FREE STATE, TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IN THE WAKE OF ANY PASSING SHORTWAVES. FOR
THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, THE MOST COMMON 925MB WIND DIRECTION REMAINS
NWERLY, SO THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE EXPECTED REGIME FOR LES
BANDS TO SET UP IN FOLLOWING ANY CLIPPERS. HOWEVER, STRONG SYNOPTIC
SNOWS LOOK UNLIKELY UNTIL AT LEAST NEXT WEEK, WHEN THERE'S A WEAK
SIGNAL IN THE ENSEMBLES FOR A SUB-900MB LOW TO PASS...SOMEWHERE
THROUGH OR NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. SPREAD IS HIGH AT THIS TIME PERIOD,
SO THIS PROSPECTIVE SYSTEM IS JUST AS LIKELY TO MISS THE UP AS IT IS
TO PROVIDE ANY WINTER IMPACTS. CPC OUTLOOKS FOR EARLY FEBRUARY
HIGHLIGHT SLIGHT FAVORING OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
HIGHER PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS LIKELY STEMS FROM ENSEMBLE MEAN 500MB HEIGHT CHARTS FAVORING
TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST CANADA TO THE GREAT LAKES AND
RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA, FAVORING TRANSPORT OF COOLER AIR
OVER STILL-OPEN WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES (SAVE FOR BAYS, ETC THAT
ARE ICING OVER CURRENTLY) WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED LES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
WITH WINDS BACKING TO THE SW, LAKE EFFECT SHSN HAVE ENDED AT CMX,
BUT BLSN DUE TO WINDS GUSTING 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE
FLUCTUATION IN VIS BTWN MVFR AND IFR FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS, THEN
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. VFR WILL
PREVAIL AT IWD/SAW INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LATER TONIGHT INTO WED
MORNING, AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LOWERING CIGS AND
SOME -SN TO THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL FALL TO MVFR AT IWD/CMX
OVERNIGHT AND AT SAW EARLY WED MORNING. A PERIOD OF IFR IS POSSIBLE
AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AT CMX. S TO SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TO ABOUT
20KT AT IWD THIS AFTN AND TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING. AT CMX, EXPECT GUSTS TO 20-25KT TODAY AND UP TO
20KT TONIGHT. GUSTS AT SAW WILL REACH TO 20-25KT LATE EVENING INTO
WED MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2025
FOR TODAY, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BACK SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW. A FEW ISOLATED GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WEST HALF OF THE LAKE, BUT CONFIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE AT
ANY GIVEN TIME IS TOO SMALL TO ISSUE A GALE WARNING. AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 30 KT, VEERING TO THE NW OVERNIGHT, WITH CHANCES OF GALES OF
AROUND 30-50% WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE. AS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY,
MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED. FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, PRIMARILY WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 25 KT
ARE EXPECTED, BUT GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY SUNDAY
(AROUND 30-50% CHANCE) AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AGAIN BEHIND A
PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM. NW WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 20-30KTS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH SOME OF THE MOST FRIGID AIR OF THE LAST
FEW YEARS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WAVES OF UP TO 10 FEET
FEET WILL ALLOW FOR SUPERCOOLED SPRAY TO FORM.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/ WEDNESDAY
FOR MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...LC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page