476
FXUS63 KMQT 221131
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
631 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY TO BRING MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS ABOVE
ZERO.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO BRING 2-4
INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS,
LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE SPINE OF
THE KEWEENAW.
- MODERATING AIRMASS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TRENDING MORE OR
LESS TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES FROM MIDWEEK ONWARDS.
- PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEMS WILL BRING IN ROUNDS OF LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 316 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS PRIMARILY DIRECT NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500MB OVER THE
UP WITH BROAD SCALE TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. UPSTREAM, A SHORTWAVE AXIS IS PIVOTING AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT EASTERN MT/ND. THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A CLIPPER LOW THAT THE RAP HAS AT 1003MB CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE AT 07Z. BROAD WARM ADVECTION IS
PROVIDING ENOUGH ASCENT FOR -SHSN TO BE OBSERVED AT THE OFFICE
AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CAN BE SEEN ACROSS AT LEAST THE WEST
HALF OF THE UP, SPREADING EAST QUICKLY. PWAT VALUES OF AROUND
0.1" WILL LIMIT QPF POTENTIAL, WITH THE HREF ONLY SHOWING
ISOLATED POCKETS OF THE UP WITH ~30% POTENTIAL OF EXCEEDING 0.1"
OF PRECIPITATION BY NOON TODAY. THE WARM ADVECTION WILL ALSO
ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE TEENS TODAY, WHICH WHILE STILL AT
LEAST A HANDFUL OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
(AROUND 20), THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RESPITE FROM THE FRIGID COLD
OF THE PAST FEW DAYS. WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL STILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS IN AT LEAST THE NEGATIVE TEENS THIS MORNING AND
BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WIND CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AT COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AFTER THE SUN RISES THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT, AS THE LOW PASSES, WEAKENING TO ABOUT 1013MB, CAMS SHOW
SOME MESOLOW TYPE FEATURES MAKING LANDFALL AROUND THE PICTURED ROCKS
NATIONAL LAKESHORE AROUND 07Z. WHILE SOME LOCALIZED LOWER
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS, ANY ENHANCED SNOWFALL FROM
THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, SO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. NORTH-NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
SET UP IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AS 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN
AROUND -20 C AND LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS AT LEAST 90% OPEN DESPITE
THE RECENT COLD. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW, WHERE UPSLOPING WILL HELP ENHANCE THE
BANDS TO PRODUCE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OF QPF PER THE HREF
MEAN BY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH AT NEAR 20:1 RATIOS COULD MEAN
LOCALLY UP TO 6 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW POSSIBLE (THOUGH MORE
WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES WILL BE THE NORM). OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND
25 MPH WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS AROUND -10, WHICH IS COLD, BUT
WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HEADLINES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 451 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC/GULF OF ALASKA REGION ON FRIDAY WITH 500 MB HEIGHT
RISES OF 360M OR MORE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD
WESTERN CANADA. THIS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROMOTE
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF NORTH
AMERICA THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE END RESULT WILL BE A NW
FLOW INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BETWEEN THESE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES WITH A SERIES OF MAINLY WEAK CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. ANY
SYSTEM SNOW WITH THESE SHORTWAVES LOOKS TO BE LIGHT UNTIL AT
LEAST MAYBE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, FORCING FROM THESE
SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SHOTS OF COLD ADVECTION WILL
SUPPORT BOUTS OF LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER MAINLY THE NW TO W SNOW BELTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER FOR THE MOST
PART, FROM BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEK, TO NEAR NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TO ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
BEGINNING THURSDAY, COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THIS
AFTERNOON/TONIGHT'S CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT NW FLOW LES.
ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE INVERSION HEIGHTS ABRUPTLY LOWERING TO
NEAR 3 KFT WEST AND 4-5 KFT EAST AS SFC RIDGING QUICKLY ADVANCES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MUCH OF THE CLOUD LAYER BENEATH THE
INVERSION IS WITHIN THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD YIELD FLUFFY LES
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES WEST AND 3 TO LOCALLY 6 INCHES
EAST BEFORE THE LES TAPERS OFF THU NIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING MORE
WESTERLY. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THU NIGHT UNDER THE SFC
RIDGE WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS AND MIN
TEMPS ON THE LOWER END OF FORECAST GUIDANCE. DECIDED TO LEAN A BIT
TOWARD THE COOLER AND USUALLY BETTER PERFORMING BIASED-CORRECTED
CANADIAN GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR MIN TEMPS OF
-10 TO -15F OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND A FEW -10F OR COLDER
READINGS OVER THE TYPICAL COLD INTERIOR CENTRAL LOCATIONS AS WELL.
AFTER A DRY, COOL AND BREEZY FRIDAY THE NEXT ROUND OF CLIPPER
SHORTWAVES ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO
MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH MAYBE SOME WEAK LAKE
ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SHORTWAVES BRINGING PERHAPS A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW INTO THE KEWEENAW ON SATURDAY. CAA WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DIPPING NEAR -20F WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO AT
TIMES MODERATE NW FLOW LES BEHIND THE CLIPPER ON SAT NIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY, BEFORE THE NEXT SERIES OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THAT THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF
GENERALLY SHOW MUCH OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY/FORCING SKIRTING
NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THIS PERIOD KEPT SLIGHT CHC TO LOW
CHC POPS CONFINED TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE U.P. WITH
THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST WHERE WEAK FORCING AND PERIODS
OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER COLD ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR NW FLOW LES ACCUMULATION.
IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW ADVERTISE A SOMEWHAT
STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK (WED-WED NIGHT TIME FRAME) WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND NW
FLOW LES BEHIND IT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS CLIPPER WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH ON FUTURE OPERATIONAL RUNS AS IT GENERALLY GOES
AGAINST THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS WHICH HAVE MID-
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, ARGUING FOR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND DRIER CONDITIONS
AT THAT TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL TRANSITION TO A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SETUP THROUGH THIS EVENING AT IWD AND CMX AND OVERNIGHT
AT KSAW. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL SNOWFLAKES FALLING WILL CREATE
EFFICIENT CONDITIONS FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, ESPECIALLY AT KCMX,
WHICH WILL HAVE PERIODS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE LIFR VISIBILITY IS AT
LEAST 40% LIKELY. IFR VIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AT IWD AND MVFR FOR
SAW. CEILINGS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR TO LOW-END VFR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO OVER 20 KT WILL VEER
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE CLIPPER PASSES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 451 AM EST WED JAN 22 2025
AN APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE
THE SOUTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KTS THIS MORNING WITH A 20-30% CHANCE OF A
FEW SW GALE GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. WINDS WILL DROP OFF A BIT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING TO THE N LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND THE CLIPPER LOW. THERE IS A 30-60% CHANCE OF BRIEF N
GALES TO 35 KTS TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKE, ALTHOUGH GUSTS
SHOULD BE TOO BRIEF TO BE HEADLINE WORTHY. AS HIGH PRESSURE
INFLUENCES THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, MAINLY WESTERLY WINDS
AROUND 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED. FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
PRIMARILY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 25-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED BUT
THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF GALE GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY (AROUND 40-70%
CHANCE) AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW AGAIN BEHIND A PASSING CLIPPER
SYSTEM. W-NW WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED AT AROUND 20-30KTS INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH AGAIN A POTENTIAL FOR GALE GUSTS TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ENDS LATER THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND WINDS DIE DOWN.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING FOR LSZ162-240>251-263>265.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LMZ248-250.
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...VOSS
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