088
FXUS63 KMQT 161633
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1133 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
MORNING FOR BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF MARQUETTE OF 3 TO 6
INCHES EXPECTED, THEN LIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER 2 TO
5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TODAY, EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
SHIFT OVER TO THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN UP, PERSISTING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 8- 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PORCUPINES, AND LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH
OF M-28 IN ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES.
- STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. OCCASIONAL
WHITE OUTS AND SNOW DRIFTING IS EXPECTED IN ALGER COUNTY,
PARTICULARLY ALONG M-28 BETWEEN HARVEY AND MUNISING.
- COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ZERO TO 15 BELOW TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW INTERIOR
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
BROAD BAROCLINIC LEAF STRUCTURE STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS MIDDLE AMERICA IS EVIDENT
ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVERNIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD
NORTHEAST TO NORTH CYCLONIC FLOW IS STRETCHING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN UNDERNEATH A COLUMN OF DEEP MOISTURE AND 850MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM -12C EAST AND SOUTH, TO -16C IN THE KEWEENAW AND
WEST, PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. FURTHER NORTH AND ALOFT, A CLOSED
MID- UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OBSERVED ROTATING JUST NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG WITH A SHORTWAVE STRETCHING SOUTH INTO MINNESOTA. A
COMBINATION OF WEBCAMS, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, AND RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES SHOW WIDESPREAD LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND SNOW
COVERED ROADWAYS ACROSS NORTH- CENTRAL, THE KEWEENAW, AND
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN
THE SHOWERS PRESSING INTO NORTH- CENTRAL, AND SNOW AMOUNTS
SINCE 0Z TOTAL 4.9 INCHES HERE AT THE NWS OFFICE IN NEGAUNEE
TOWNSHIP. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE TEENS IN THE WEST, TO UPPER TEENS IN THE KEWEENAW, AND
LOW 20S SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS MORNING AND TODAY, THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH WILL
DRIFT SOUTH, FORCING THE TROUGHING OVER MIDDLE AMERICA AND THE
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER KENTUCKY NORTHEASTWARD
TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ENABLE A FEW IMPULSES TO PRESS
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP
MAINTAIN CYCLONIC FLOW AND SHARPEN SURFACE TROUGHING OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR, AND INCREASE INVERSION HEIGHTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH- NORTHEAST NOW, TO NORTHERLY THIS
MORNING, AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THIS SAME PROGRESSION, SHIFTING
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND SNOW BELTS TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SNOW BELTS THROUGH THE DAY. AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HIGH SLRS, SO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL EXPECTED.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TONIGHT, THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS OVER
BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW
FROM GWINN NORTHWESTWARD, WEST OF MARQUETTE CITY. THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY NORTH OF US-41/M-28. ELSEWHERE IN
THE COUNTY, ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN THE
WEST AND KEWEENAW, GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED, WITH
UPWARDS OF 4 BEING POSSIBLE IN THE PORKIES. SUNDAY, MAIN FOCUS
SHIFTS INTO ALGER COUNTY, ENABLING 2-6 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL
SNOW. ELSEWHERE 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. TONIGHT, INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE, WHICH WILL HELP
INCREASE LAKE EFFECT INTENSITY. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL HELP
FOCUS BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO ONTONAGON, ALGER, AND
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IN THESE AREAS COULD
YIELD UPWARDS OF 8 INCHES WHILE OUTSIDE OF THESE AREAS 1 TO 3
INCHES IS EXPECTED.
TIGHT GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT STRONG WINDS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES, POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 25-35 MPH. GIVEN THAT A MAJORITY
OF THE LAKESHORE IS ICED IN, AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BE
EXPECTED, RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND SNOW
DRIFTS. GIVEN THE EASTWARD MIGRATION OF SNOW SHOWERS TODAY,
THIS RISK INCLUDES THE STRETCH BETWEEN HARVEY AND MUNISING ALONG
M-28 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
GIVEN ALL THIS, OPTED TO EXTEND THE INHERITED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN HOUGHTON/KEWEENAW AND LEFT THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS
FOR BARAGA/MARQUETTE COUNTIES AS IS. ALSO LEFT GOGEBIC/ONTONAGON
ADVISORIES AS THEY ARE, BUT UPGRADED ONTONAGON TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING AT 0Z TONIGHT. ALSO OPTED TO UPGRADE ALGER AND ADD NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT TO A WINTER STORM WARNING BEGINNING AT 21Z. ALSO ADDED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR LUCE COUNTY BEGINNING AT 21Z.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE ARCTIC,
RESULTING IN DISLODGING OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES TEND TO DOMINATE TO THE S TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES IN THIS
TYPE OF SITUATION. THAT INCLUDES CANADA WHERE AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC
AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDES, WITH TEMPERATURES PLENTY OF -20 TO -30
DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONE PIECE OF THE ANOMALIES WILL
DROP S TO HUDSON BAY, FORCING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/TROFFING S
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THRU TUE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
MODERATING CORE OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO, FOR UPPER MI, BLO NORMAL
TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE
COLDEST DAY LIKELY ON MON. THEREAFTER, POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXPANDING ALL ALONG THE VCNTY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK, BRINGING TEMPS
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AS FOR PCPN, THE EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SYSTEM SNOWS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THE LACK OF SYSTEM SNOWS FOR UPPER MI HAS BEEN A
THEME OF THIS WINTER, JUST LIKE IT WAS LAST WINTER. THE ARCTIC AIR,
HOWEVER, WILL SUPPORT LES UNTIL LATE WEEK.
BY EARLY MON, INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO AROUND 7-8KFT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA AS MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
BEGINS TO OPEN UP WHILE IT SHIFTS ESE, REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BY MON
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LES INTENSITY. WITH
PERSISTENT NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFF OF WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE FOCUSED INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY AND ADJACENT
HOUGHTON COUNTY. OFF OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, CONVERGENCE FOCUSES
MAINLY INTO ALGER/NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. SO, EXPECT
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO PERSIST IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
MONDAY BEFORE SNOWFALL RATES START TO SLOWLY FALL BACK MONDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE
AREAS, BRINGING EVENT TOTALS AROUND 8-12IN FOR MOST, AND LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ~1-3
INCHES/12HRS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND 1-2/12HRS IN BARAGA
COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS, EXPECT SCT -SHSN, BUT TRENDING TO NO
-SHSN S CENTRAL. AFTER A COLD START, HIGH TEMPS ON MON WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAIRLY STEADY STATE NW FOR TUE/WED, FAVORING LES
IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN FREQUENT LES DURING THIS WINTER. AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE, INVERSIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO ~4-5KFT,
WORKING TO KEEP LES IN CHECK. AS AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES, THE DGZ
WILL ALSO SLOWLY RISE TO BECOME BETTER SITUATED IN THE LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTIVE LAYER, RAISING SLRS FOR FLUFFIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IN
GENERAL, THE WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON/ALGER/LUCE
AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES FOR BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
BROADLY SPEAKING, SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE
1-3IN/12HR RANGE, LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE ANY FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
OCCURS DUE TO THERMAL TROFFING/LAND BREEZE WIND COMPONENT. WIND
CHILLS EARLY TUE MORNING WILL BE IN THE -15 TO -25 RANGE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR W HALF. HIGH TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS, COLDEST W HALF. MODERATION BEGINS ON WED, AND BY
FRI/SAT, TEMPS WILL BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. LES WILL WIND DOWN AND
END BY FRI.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
NORTHWESTERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL STAY MVFR FOR THE MOST PART AT IWD WITH
PERIODS OF IFR IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. CMX WILL REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT AND AT TIMES WILL BE LIFR. SAW
WILL BE IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
NE WINDS OF 20-30KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE
NW BY THE AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FALLING TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TUESDAY. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KT WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY IN THE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN GRAND
MARAIS, STANNARD ROCK AND MUNISING. THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALSO SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THRU TUE. NW WINDS
FINALLY DROP BACK BELOW 20KT FOR WED.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ001-003-
084.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST MONDAY
FOR MIZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ004-
005.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MIZ006.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY
FOR LSZ240>251-263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...LC
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