506
FXUS63 KMQT 161943
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
243 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
MORNING FOR BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF MARQUETTE OF 3 TO 6
INCHES EXPECTED, THEN LIGHTEN THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER 2 TO
5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW TODAY, EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
SHIFT OVER TO THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN
AND EASTERN UP, PERSISTING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AT TIMES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
WILL LEAD TO A WIDESPREAD 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW. HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 8- 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE PORCUPINES, AND LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH
OF M-28 IN ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES.
- STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. OCCASIONAL
WHITE OUTS AND SNOW DRIFTING IS EXPECTED IN ALGER COUNTY,
PARTICULARLY ALONG M-28 BETWEEN HARVEY AND MUNISING.
- COLD AIR SETTLES OVER THE AREA THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ZERO TO 15 BELOW TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW INTERIOR
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 243 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB CLOSED LOW NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
AND A TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE CLOSED LOW HEADS SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MON JUST NORTH OF
INTERNATIONAL FALLS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WIND
AFFECTED LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELTS WILL COME INTO PLAY THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE. COUPLE OF THINGS TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT FOR THIS FORECAST. FIRST IS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OCCURRING, STRONG
DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE SETS UP WHICH WILL CAUSE SOME STRONG LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS TO MOVE ACROSS ONTONAGON, ALGER AND NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES AND THE WINTER STORM WARNING LOOKS GOOD STILL.
ADVISORY AREAS LOOK GOOD AS WELL WHERE THEY ARE. SECOND ISSUE IS
POSSIBLE APPARENT AIR TEMPERATURE VALUES. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS, THIS
WILL TEND TO CAUSE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INLAND.
THE WIND DOES NOT LOOK TO DECOUPLE TONIGHT, SO IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING DOES NOT SET UP. THINK CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT ENOUGH
OVER THE WEST COMBINED WITH THE WIND WHICH WILL KEEP APPARENT
TEMPERATURES ABOVE -25F, SO NO COLD ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. A FEW
PLACES WILL GET CLOSE THOUGH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CURRENTLY DOMINATE THE ARCTIC,
RESULTING IN DISLODGING OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES TEND TO DOMINATE TO THE S TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES IN THIS
TYPE OF SITUATION. THAT INCLUDES CANADA WHERE AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC
AIR MASS CURRENTLY RESIDES, WITH TEMPERATURES PLENTY OF -20 TO -30
DEGREE READINGS ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES AND INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO. THE ARCTIC POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES WILL BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONE PIECE OF THE ANOMALIES WILL
DROP S TO HUDSON BAY, FORCING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES/TROFFING S
INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY THRU TUE. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE
MODERATING CORE OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHING THRU THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO, FOR UPPER MI, BLO NORMAL
TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE
COLDEST DAY LIKELY ON MON. THEREAFTER, POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXPANDING ALL ALONG THE VCNTY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK, BRINGING TEMPS
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AS FOR PCPN, THE EVOLVING
PATTERN WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SYSTEM SNOWS DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK. THE LACK OF SYSTEM SNOWS FOR UPPER MI HAS BEEN A
THEME OF THIS WINTER, JUST LIKE IT WAS LAST WINTER. THE ARCTIC AIR,
HOWEVER, WILL SUPPORT LES UNTIL LATE WEEK.
BY EARLY MON, INVERSION HEIGHTS RISE TO AROUND 7-8KFT WITH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF CAA AS MID-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
BEGINS TO OPEN UP WHILE IT SHIFTS ESE, REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BY MON
EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LES INTENSITY. WITH
PERSISTENT NW LOW-LEVEL FLOW, LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFF OF WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE FOCUSED INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY AND ADJACENT
HOUGHTON COUNTY. OFF OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, CONVERGENCE FOCUSES
MAINLY INTO ALGER/NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE COUNTIES. SO, EXPECT
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO PERSIST IN THOSE AREAS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
MONDAY BEFORE SNOWFALL RATES START TO SLOWLY FALL BACK MONDAY
EVENING. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE
AREAS, BRINGING EVENT TOTALS AROUND 8-12IN FOR MOST, AND LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF A FOOT POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ~1-3
INCHES/12HRS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND 1-2/12HRS IN BARAGA
COUNTY. OUTSIDE OF THOSE AREAS, EXPECT SCT -SHSN, BUT TRENDING TO NO
-SHSN S CENTRAL. AFTER A COLD START, HIGH TEMPS ON MON WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10F ABOVE.
LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAIRLY STEADY STATE NW FOR TUE/WED, FAVORING LES
IN THE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN FREQUENT LES DURING THIS WINTER. AS
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE, INVERSIONS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN TO ~4-5KFT,
WORKING TO KEEP LES IN CHECK. AS AIR MASS SLOWLY MODERATES, THE DGZ
WILL ALSO SLOWLY RISE TO BECOME BETTER SITUATED IN THE LAKE INDUCED
CONVECTIVE LAYER, RAISING SLRS FOR FLUFFIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IN
GENERAL, THE WIND DIRECTION WILL FAVOR ONTONAGON/HOUGHTON/ALGER/LUCE
AND NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES FOR BEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
BROADLY SPEAKING, SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE
1-3IN/12HR RANGE, LOCALLY HIGHER WHERE ANY FOCUSED CONVERGENCE
OCCURS DUE TO THERMAL TROFFING/LAND BREEZE WIND COMPONENT. WIND
CHILLS EARLY TUE MORNING WILL BE IN THE -15 TO -25 RANGE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR W HALF. HIGH TEMPS ON TUE WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS, COLDEST W HALF. MODERATION BEGINS ON WED, AND BY
FRI/SAT, TEMPS WILL BACK TO AROUND NORMAL. LES WILL WIND DOWN AND
END BY FRI.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
NORTHWESTERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL STAY MVFR FOR THE MOST PART AT IWD WITH
PERIODS OF IFR IN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. CMX WILL REMAIN IFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LAKE EFFECT AND AT TIMES WILL BE LIFR. SAW
WILL BE IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND IMPROVE TO VFR TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK
MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
AREA.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 258 AM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
NE WINDS OF 20-30KTS ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE
NW BY THE AFTERNOON, PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE FALLING TO
AROUND 20-25KTS TUESDAY. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35KT WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY THROUGH MONDAY IN THE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN GRAND
MARAIS, STANNARD ROCK AND MUNISING. THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL
ALSO SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THRU TUE. NW WINDS
FINALLY DROP BACK BELOW 20KT FOR WED.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ MONDAY FOR
MIZ001-003-009-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR MIZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ007.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY
FOR LSZ240>251-263>267.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...LC
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