800
FXUS63 KMQT 170724
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
224 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ONTONAGON COUNTY AND FROM EASTERN ALGER COUNTY TO
NORTHWEST LUCE COUNTY. THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE OVER A FOOT
OF SNOW.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
- COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ZERO
TO AROUND 10 BELOW TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW INTERIOR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW DESCENDING SOUTH ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA
BORDER IS OBSERVED ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS.
FURTHER DOWN, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THAT, IN ADDITION TO 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -20C EAST TO -24C
WEST, PER SPC MESOANALYSIS, IS SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONGEST SNOW BANDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED
STRETCHING INTO EASTERN ALGER/NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES IN THE
EAST AND INTO THE PORKIES/ONTONAGON COUNTY IN THE WEST. WHERE THERE
ARE WEBCAMS IN THESE AREAS, PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED IN
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS, LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED. POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES ARE
APPARENT ON GOES IR IMAGERY, WHICH WITH THE COLD AIRMASS AND
YESTERDAY'S SNOW, HAVE SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN A
MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL AND SINGLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE, SAVE A FEW AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR,
WHICH ARE HOVERING IN THE TEENS.
RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 7-9K
FEET ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR 6K FEET IN THE WEST. WITH THE COLDER
AIRMASS OVERHEAD, THIS IS RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW RATIOS, BUT FINE
PLATE-LIKE SNOW CRYSTALS. AREAS OF STRONG CONVERGENCE INTO THESE
AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND TODAY THOUGH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TODAY,
EXPECTING ANOTHER 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR A FOOT
ACROSS THE PORKIES AND CENTRAL ONTONAGON COUNTY. ELSEWHERE IN THE
WEST/KEWEENAW, AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED, MAINLY
NORTH INTO NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES. IN THE EAST,
DOMINATE BANDING LOOKS TO FOCUS BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS,
WHICH SHOULD EASILY AMOUNT TO A FOOT OR MORE FROM MELSTRAND
NORTHEASTWARD TO M-77. OTHER AREAS BETWEEN MUNISING AND M-123 ARE
LIKELY TO SEE 6 TO 10 INCHES. OUTSIDE OF THESE POCKETS, SUSPECT
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS PLAUSIBLE, WITH LESS SOUTH OF M-28 IN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLD, WITH
MOST OF THE WEST HALF REMOVED FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES LIKELY
TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO. THE WEST HALF AND
LAKESHORES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR 10F. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY
AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 15-20 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE COLDER AIR, WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE -10 TO -20 FOR MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT, INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL, WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT LESS
SNOWFALL. STILL THOUGH, ANOTHER 2 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF M-28 BETWEEN MELSTRAND AND
TAHQUAMENON FALLS STATE PARK. IN THE WEST, ANOTHER 1 TO 6 INCHES IS
EXPECTED, WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUS INTO THE PORKIES AND
SURROUNDING PARTS OF ONTONAGON COUNTY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
COLD, WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FALLING BELOW ZERO. NEGATIVE TEENS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY IN THE
INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL. OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THESE
LOCATIONS OF -20 TO -25F ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THE INHERITED WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN ONTONAGON, LUCE, NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT, AND ALGER, OPTED TO HOLD THEM THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ALSO
OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN HOUGHTON AND
KEWEENAW COUNTIES THROUGH 0Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, PLAN ON LETTING
GOGEBIC FALL OFF AT 12Z THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE MONITORING
TEMPERATURE AND WIND CHILL TRENDS THIS MORNING IN THE EVENT A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES HAVE RECENTLY DOMINATED THE
ARCTIC, DISLODGING ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD AS NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TEND TO DOMINATE TO THE S TOWARD THE MID-LATITUDES IN THIS TYPE OF
SITUATION. THAT INCLUDES CANADA WHERE AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC AIR MASS
STILL CURRENTLY RESIDES. WIDESPREAD -20S AND -30S F WERE OBSERVED
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO. A -51F WAS EVEN NOTED IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THIS ARCTIC
AIR IS SPILLING ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ARCTIC POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY BREAKING DOWN AND ARE ON THE MOVE. ONE PIECE
WILL DROP S TO HUDSON BAY, FORCING NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES/TROFFING S INTO THE GREAT LAKES THRU TUE. THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE MODERATING CORE OF ARCTIC AIR PUSHING THRU THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SO, FOR UPPER MI,
BLO NORMAL TEMPS WILL PREVAIL THRU WED WITH THE COLDEST DAY LIKELY
ON MON. THEREAFTER, A TREND TOWARD POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
EXPANDING ALL ALONG THE VCNTY OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL LEAD
TO A WARMING TREND DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK, BRINGING TEMPS
BACK TO AROUND NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. AS
FOR PCPN, THE EVOLVING PATTERN WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY SYSTEM
SNOWS THIS WEEK. THE LACK OF SYSTEM SNOWS FOR UPPER MI HAS BEEN A
THEME OF THIS WINTER, JUST LIKE IT WAS LAST WINTER. THE ARCTIC AIR,
HOWEVER, WILL SUPPORT LES THROUGH ABOUT THU MORNING.
BEGINNING MON, FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 7-8KFT
AS MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA SHIFTS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WHILE OPENING UP. COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM
AROUND -23C OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TO AROUND -28C OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR, EXPECT VIGOROUS LES UNDER NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. MODELS OVER THE LAST 24HRS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OFF OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY TONIGHT LINGERING THRU MON MORNING BEFORE
WEAKENING, BUT STILL REMAINING THRU THE AFTN. TO THE E, ANOTHER AREA
OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE PERSISTS THRU THE DAY AND HOLDS
NEARLY STEADY ACROSS EASTERN ALGER COUNTY, NE SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY AND
WESTERN LUCE COUNTY. IN BOTH OF THESE AREAS, EXPECT HVY LES, BUT IT
WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT THRU THE ENTIRE DAY IN THE LATTER AREA. IN
ONTONAGON COUNTY, ANOTHER 2-5 TO LOCALLY 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY
ON MON. IN EASTERN ALGER, NE SCHOOLCRAFT AND WESTERN LUCE, 8-12
INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS EASILY ACHIEVABLE DURING THE DAY MON. IF THE
CONVERGENCE BECOMES HIGHLY FOCUSED AND STATIONARY, ACCUMULATIONS ON
MON COULD REACH 12-16 INCHES IN A SMALL LOCALIZED AREA. ACROSS THE
REST OF THE EASTERN FCST AREA AFFECTED BY NW FLOW LES, EXPECT 2-5
INCHES OF SNOW IN GENERAL. OVER WESTERN UPPER MI, EXPECT 1-3 INCHES
OF SNOW OUTSIDE OF ONTONAGON COUNTY. WITH THE OPENING UP MID-LEVEL
LOW ARRIVING, EXPECT SOME DIURNAL COMPONENT -SHSN, RESULTING IN
-SHSN/FLURRIES EXTENDING WELL INLAND IN THE AFTN. WITH TEMPS OF -5
TO -10F IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE INTERIOR W AND WINDS 5-10MPH, WIND
CHILLS WILL BE -18 TO -25 RANGE, NOT QUITE TO COLD WEATHER ADVY
CRITERIA OF WIDESPREAD -25 OR LOWER. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE 0F INTERIOR W TO AROUND 10F ABOVE
S CENTRAL AND E.
INVERSIONS GRADUALLY BEGIN TO FALL DURING MON NIGHT AS TROFFING
WEAKENS/HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE AREA. SO, SNOWFALL RATES WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO EASE. THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE INTO ONTONAGON COUNTY
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING MON NIGHT. TO THE E, THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE INTO EASTERN ALGER/NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT/LUCE
COUNTIES ALSO REMAINS NEAR STATIONARY. AS A RESULT, THOSE AREAS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE THE HEAVIER, MOST PERSISTENT SHSN, ABOUT 2-4 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW W AND 4-7 E. OUTSIDE OF THOSE FAVORED CONVERGENCE ZONES,
THE ONGOING NW FLOW LES WILL LEAVE ANOTHER 1-3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW
DURING MON NIGHT. TEMPS BY EARLY TUE MORNING WILL BE DOWN NEAR -10F
IN THE INTERIOR W WITH WIND CHILLS AGAIN DOWN IN THE -18 TO -25
RANGE.
INVERSIONS SETTLE IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE FOR TUE/WED, LOWEST W, LEADING
TO LIGHTER NW FLOW LES. EXPECT 1-3 TO LOCALLY 4 INCH ACCUMULATIONS
PER 12HRS WITH THE HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE E. WINDS
TEMPORARILY VEER A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY TUE NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING, SO THE LES MAY SHIFT TO COVER MORE OF
NORTHERN UPPER MI DURING THOSE TIMES. WAA FROM THE N WILL THEN RAISE
850MB TEMPS TOWARD -10C ON THU, SO LES WILL WIND DOWN AND LIKELY
END. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST FRI WITH BROAD SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WAA REGIME AND
UNCERTAIN TIMING OF SHORTWAVES IN WNW FLOW WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A
LITTLE -SN AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS FRI THRU THE
WEEKEND WILL BE AROUND NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID TO
LATE FEB.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
NORTHWESTERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL STAY MVFR UNDER SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SNOW FOR THE MOST PART AT IWD THROUGH THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH
WITH WINDS SHIFTING VEERING EVER SO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE DAY INTO TONIGHT, STEADY LAKE EFFECT BANDS COULD MOVE IN AND
LOWER VSBY TO IFR. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS AND GUSTS NEAR 25
KT AT CMX WILL RESULT IN PREVAILING IFR CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS
SOME LOWER LIFR VSBY FROM BLOWING SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS AT SAW
INTO THE MORNING HOURS COULD TRANSITION TO MVFR DIURNAL CLOUDS
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH PERHAPS IMPROVEMENT AGAIN TO VFR
MON EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 423 PM EST SUN FEB 16 2025
NW WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU TUE, STRONGEST ACROSS THE E HALF. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL OCCUR INTO MON IN THE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN GRAND
MARAIS, STANNARD ROCK AND MUNISING. THE GALE GUST POTENTIAL EXPANDS
OVER MORE THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE DURING MON NIGHT AS PROBABILITY
OF PEAK GUSTS TO 35KT INCREASES TO 50-70PCT. WITH THE BRISK WINDS
AND THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY THRU TUE. NW TO N WINDS DROP BACK TO MOSTLY BELOW 20KT FOR WED
AND THU.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
003-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-006-007-
085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY
FOR LSZ240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
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