810
FXUS63 KMQT 171114
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
614 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT, RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FOR WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ONTONAGON COUNTY AND FROM EASTERN ALGER COUNTY TO
NORTHWEST LUCE COUNTY. THESE AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE OVER A FOOT
OF SNOW.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
- COLD CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOW TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ZERO
TO AROUND 10 BELOW TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW INTERIOR WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS
MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 222 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW DESCENDING SOUTH ALONG THE ONTARIO/MANITOBA
BORDER IS OBSERVED ON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS.
FURTHER DOWN, A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
THAT, IN ADDITION TO 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM -20C EAST TO -24C
WEST, PER SPC MESOANALYSIS, IS SUPPORTING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. STRONGEST SNOW BANDS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED
STRETCHING INTO EASTERN ALGER/NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES IN THE
EAST AND INTO THE PORKIES/ONTONAGON COUNTY IN THE WEST. WHERE THERE
ARE WEBCAMS IN THESE AREAS, PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED IN
SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOW
BELTS, LIGHT SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED. POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES ARE
APPARENT ON GOES IR IMAGERY, WHICH WITH THE COLD AIRMASS AND
YESTERDAY'S SNOW, HAVE SUPPORTED TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO IN A
MAJORITY OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL AND SINGLE DIGITS
ELSEWHERE, SAVE A FEW AREAS ALONG THE LAKESHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR,
WHICH ARE HOVERING IN THE TEENS.
RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 7-9K
FEET ACROSS THE EAST AND NEAR 6K FEET IN THE WEST. WITH THE COLDER
AIRMASS OVERHEAD, THIS IS RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW RATIOS, BUT FINE
PLATE-LIKE SNOW CRYSTALS. AREAS OF STRONG CONVERGENCE INTO THESE
AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
AND TODAY THOUGH, WHICH WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TODAY,
EXPECTING ANOTHER 5 TO 10 INCHES, WITH POTENTIAL FOR NEAR A FOOT
ACROSS THE PORKIES AND CENTRAL ONTONAGON COUNTY. ELSEWHERE IN THE
WEST/KEWEENAW, AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED, MAINLY
NORTH INTO NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES. IN THE EAST,
DOMINATE BANDING LOOKS TO FOCUS BETWEEN MUNISING AND GRAND MARAIS,
WHICH SHOULD EASILY AMOUNT TO A FOOT OR MORE FROM MELSTRAND
NORTHEASTWARD TO M-77. OTHER AREAS BETWEEN MUNISING AND M-123 ARE
LIKELY TO SEE 6 TO 10 INCHES. OUTSIDE OF THESE POCKETS, SUSPECT
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS PLAUSIBLE, WITH LESS SOUTH OF M-28 IN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE COLD, WITH
MOST OF THE WEST HALF REMOVED FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES LIKELY
TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO. THE WEST HALF AND
LAKESHORES SHOULD WARM TO NEAR 10F. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY
AND COULD GUST TO NEAR 15-20 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE COLDER AIR, WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE -10 TO -20 FOR MOST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT, INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL FALL, WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT LESS
SNOWFALL. STILL THOUGH, ANOTHER 2 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS FOCUSED MAINLY NORTH OF M-28 BETWEEN MELSTRAND AND
TAHQUAMENON FALLS STATE PARK. IN THE WEST, ANOTHER 1 TO 6 INCHES IS
EXPECTED, WHERE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUS INTO THE PORKIES AND
SURROUNDING PARTS OF ONTONAGON COUNTY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE
COLD, WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FALLING BELOW ZERO. NEGATIVE TEENS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY IN THE
INTERIOR WEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL. OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS IN THESE
LOCATIONS OF -20 TO -25F ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THE INHERITED WINTER STORM WARNINGS IN ONTONAGON, LUCE, NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT, AND ALGER, OPTED TO HOLD THEM THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. ALSO
OPTED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN HOUGHTON AND
KEWEENAW COUNTIES THROUGH 0Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, PLAN ON LETTING
GOGEBIC FALL OFF AT 12Z THIS MORNING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE MONITORING
TEMPERATURE AND WIND CHILL TRENDS THIS MORNING IN THE EVENT A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NEEDED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
AMID CHILLY NW FLOW, EXPECT LES TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD.
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE FALLING TO AROUND 4-6KFT, LOWEST IN THE
WESTERN UP, SO SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE DROPPING BACK. STILL, WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE DIRECTED INTO ALGER/LUCE/NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT COUNTIES NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS
TUESDAY, ANOTHER 1-3IN, LOCALLY HIGHER UP TO 4IN, WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXPECT LOWER TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW AN INCH IN THE NW SNOW BELTS IN
THE WESTERN UP. WINDS TEMPORARILY VEER A LITTLE MORE NORTHERLY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING,
SO THE LES MAY SHIFT TO COVER MORE OF NORTHERN UPPER MI DURING THOSE
TIMES. AT THE SAME TIME, A MODERATING AIRMASS WILL HAVE THE DGZ
LIFTING ABOVE THE SURFACE AND SLRS RUNNING CLOSER TO A FLUFFY 20:1.
THIS SHOULD LEAVE US WITH 12-HOURLY SNOW TOTALS AROUND 1-3IN TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES, MEANWHILE, STAY ON THE CHILLY SIDE. THE WESTERN UP MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS ALL DAY TUESDAY, WHILE THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE UP CLIMBS ONLY INTO THE LOWER TEENS. AFTER
ANOTHER NIGHT OF SINGLE DIGITS (ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO) TUESDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL COME IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS AREA-WIDE, FALLING BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
RIDGING, ALONG WITH WAA FROM THE NORTH RAISING 850MB TEMPS TOWARD
-10C ON THURSDAY, WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO LES. DRY WEATHER
PERSISTS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WAA REGIME AND UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IN WNW FLOW WILL LEAD TO SPORADIC POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A WARMING TREND THURSDAY ONWARDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
NORTHWESTERLY LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS FORECAST
PERIOD, BRINGING PRIMARILY MVFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL FOR IFR
VISIBILITIES TO KIWD AND KCMX. LIFR VISIBILITIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT
AT KCMX. KSAW IS EXPECTED TO TEETER NEAR VFR THIS MORNING BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SITES CAN EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 20KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 AM EST MON FEB 17 2025
NW WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU TUE, STRONGEST ACROSS THE E HALF. SOME GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL OCCUR INTO MON IN THE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN GRAND
MARAIS, STANNARD ROCK AND MUNISING. THE GALE GUST POTENTIAL EXPANDS
OVER MORE THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE DURING MON NIGHT AS PROBABILITY
OF PEAK GUSTS TO 35KT INCREASES TO 30-50PCT. WITH THE BRISK WINDS
AND THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY THRU TUE. NW TO N WINDS DROP BACK TO MOSTLY BELOW 20KT FOR WED
THROUGH FRI BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 20KTS OUT OF THE SW INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
003-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002-006-007-
085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ009.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ TUESDAY
FOR LSZ240>251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...LC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page