999
FXUS63 KMQT 180503
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1203 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER
ONTONAGON AND ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES.
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 4 INCHES COULD BE SEEN IN WESTERN
ONTONAGON COUNTY, AND 6+ INCHES IS EXPECTED EAST OF MUNISING
AND NORTH OF M-28.
- COLD AIR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS
AND SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE NEGATIVE 20S BEGINNING
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. SOME
ISOLATED COLD SPOTS COULD EVEN BOMB OUT TO -35F OR COLDER IN
THE INTERIOR WEST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL.
- NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.
- COLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT, TEMPERATURES BECOME
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND CONTINUING TO
BRING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE AREAS JUST EAST OF MUNISING,
WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1" PER HOUR BEING SEEN. MEANWHILE,
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE 'POPCORN' TYPE OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL OVER THE WESTERN U.P. MOVING INTO EVEN MENOMINEE COUNTY
(THANKS TO SOME SUN-INDUCED MUCAPE). WITH LAKE EFFECT ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES NOW BECOMING TOO COLD FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (SAVE FOR NEAR
THE SFC OVER THE EAST), SLRS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS 10:1 AS SECTOR
PLATING OCCURS; THIS SECTOR PLATING IS MAKING THE SNOWFALL VERY FINE
AND SAND-LIKE, CAUSING BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS TO BE AMPLIFIED NEAR
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AND THE EASTERN U.P.. THE BLOWING SNOW
COULD DROP SHARPLY DROP VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE STUCK BEHIND A LARGER VEHICLE. THEREFORE, EVEN
THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST
PACKAGE, THE EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY (70+%)
BE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN WHAT CAN BE PRODUCED IN THE FORECAST.
THEREFORE, WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES UNTIL 7
AM EST TUESDAY, AS TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE AT
TIMES. AS FOR ONTONAGON COUNTY, PLAN ON DOWNGRADING IT TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWERED TO WELL
BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH THE IMPACTS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY. FOR HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES, PLAN ON LETTING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING AS THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT; HOWEVER, IF VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE
CONTINUING TO BE SEEN, THEN THEY MAY NEED THE ADVISORY EXTENDED TO
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING AS GUSTY WINDS DO LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE AXIS OF COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO LEAVE THE REGION.
THE OTHER CONCERN DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD COMES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS, WITH A FEW INTERIOR SPOTS POSSIBLY EVEN
GETTING DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S. WITH THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER
DWINDLING DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE END OF THE SUN-INDUCED
INSTABILITY, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND THE
CENTRAL TO DROP. IN ADDITION, WITH WINDS BEING FAIRLY GUSTY (20 TO
25 MPH) OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE AND THE EAST, WE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS DROP DOWN OVER
THESE AREAS TOO. THUS, A WE COULD SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S TONIGHT, WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
IN THE INTERIOR WEST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL POSSIBLY DROPPING DOWN TO -
35F OR COLDER. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW COLD WE CAN GET, AS
THE GUSTINESS COULD INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING ALL THAT MUCH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR U.P. TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
FOR ISSUING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
EASTERN U.P. WILL FLIRT WITH NEGATIVE 20F WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN U.P. AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, BE
SURE TO LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTSIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA, AS FROSTBITE COULD SET IN WITHIN 30 MINUTES ON EXPOSED
SKIN.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND SNOWBELTS. COME TUESDAY MORNING, LIGHT TO
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST
HALF AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND KEWEENAW. LAKE INDUCED
INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY, LOWERING
TO AROUND 4-6K FT (LOWEST IN THE WEST), SO EXPECT DECREASING
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. OVERALL, AN ADDITIONAL 1-3"
WITH LOCAL HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 4" THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE NW
SNOWBELTS. WINDS BEGIN SLIGHTLY VEERING TO THE NORTH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER
MIDWEST AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE RETROGRADES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE INTO ALGER COUNTY WEDNESDAY MORNING COULD
PROVIDE SOME HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ALONG M-28 DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE HOURS. SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK SIMILAR
TO TUESDAY WITH 1-3" IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
TO 4" CLOSER TO MUNISING.
COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WHERE MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR WEST WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
RIDGING, ALONG WITH WAA FROM THE NORTH RAISING 850MB TEMPS TOWARD
-10C ON THURSDAY, WILL FINALLY BRING AN END TO LES. DRY WEATHER
PERSISTS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING MOVING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WAA REGIME AND UNCERTAIN TIMING
OF SHORTWAVES IN WNW FLOW WILL LEAD TO SPORADIC POPS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A WARMING TREND THURSDAY ONWARDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB NEAR AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL
FOR FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH
THE SNOWFLAKES TAKING ON A MORE FINE/POWDERY CRYSTAL STRUCTURE,
EXPECT THE SAND-LIKE SNOW TO GREATLY REDUCE VIS AT CMX AND IWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE IFR TO AT TIMES
LIFR VIS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. AS THE LAKE EFFECT WEAKENS TONIGHT, EXPECT A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT IWD LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IFR AT CMX THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. AS FOR
SAW, VFR CONDITIONS ARE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COULD BRING HIGH-END MVFR CIGS INTO SAW
TUE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DO APPEAR TO PICK UP THIS
OVERNIGHT AT CMX WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO 20-25 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
NW WINDS OF 20-30KT WILL GENERALLY BE THE RULE ACROSS MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, STRONGEST ACROSS THE E HALF. SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT IN THE AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN
GRAND MARAIS, STANNARD ROCK AND MUNISING. WITH THE BRISK WINDS AND
THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE, EXPECT PERIODS OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
THRU TUESDAY. NW TO N WINDS DROP BACK TO MOSTLY BELOW 20KT FOR WED
THROUGH FRI BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 20KTS OUT OF THE SW INTO THE
WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ001>003-009-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ002.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ TUESDAY FOR
MIZ004-005-010>013.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MIZ006-007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST /MIDNIGHT CST/
TUESDAY FOR LSZ162.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ TUESDAY
FOR LSZ240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-251-264-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...BW
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