764
FXUS63 KMQT 180709
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
209 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER
ONTONAGON AND ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES.
UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 4 INCHES COULD BE SEEN IN WESTERN
ONTONAGON COUNTY, AND 6+ INCHES IS EXPECTED EAST OF MUNISING
AND NORTH OF M-28.
- COLD AIR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS
AND SOME TEMPERATURES DOWN TO THE NEGATIVE 20S BEGINNING
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. SOME
ISOLATED COLD SPOTS COULD EVEN BOMB OUT TO -35F OR COLDER IN
THE INTERIOR WEST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL.
- NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR.
- COLD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT, TEMPERATURES BECOME
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 226 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS LAKE EFFECT SNOWBAND CONTINUING TO
BRING HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO THE AREAS JUST EAST OF MUNISING,
WITH SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1" PER HOUR BEING SEEN. MEANWHILE,
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE 'POPCORN' TYPE OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL OVER THE WESTERN U.P. MOVING INTO EVEN MENOMINEE COUNTY
(THANKS TO SOME SUN-INDUCED MUCAPE). WITH LAKE EFFECT ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES NOW BECOMING TOO COLD FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH (SAVE FOR NEAR
THE SFC OVER THE EAST), SLRS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS 10:1 AS SECTOR
PLATING OCCURS; THIS SECTOR PLATING IS MAKING THE SNOWFALL VERY FINE
AND SAND-LIKE, CAUSING BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS TO BE AMPLIFIED NEAR
THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE AND THE EASTERN U.P.. THE BLOWING SNOW
COULD DROP SHARPLY DROP VISIBILITIES CLOSE TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE STUCK BEHIND A LARGER VEHICLE. THEREFORE, EVEN
THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST
PACKAGE, THE EFFECTS CAUSED BY THE BLOWING SNOW WILL LIKELY (70+%)
BE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN WHAT CAN BE PRODUCED IN THE FORECAST.
THEREFORE, WITH THAT BEING SAID, THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL
CONTINUE OVER ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES UNTIL 7
AM EST TUESDAY, AS TRAVEL WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE AT
TIMES. AS FOR ONTONAGON COUNTY, PLAN ON DOWNGRADING IT TO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWERED TO WELL
BELOW WINTER STORM CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH THE IMPACTS WILL STILL BE
ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT THE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY. FOR HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES, PLAN ON LETTING THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPIRE AT 7 PM EST THIS EVENING AS THE
SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT; HOWEVER, IF VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE
CONTINUING TO BE SEEN, THEN THEY MAY NEED THE ADVISORY EXTENDED TO
AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING AS GUSTY WINDS DO LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE AXIS OF COLDEST AIR BEGINS TO LEAVE THE REGION.
THE OTHER CONCERN DURING THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD COMES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS, WITH A FEW INTERIOR SPOTS POSSIBLY EVEN
GETTING DOWN INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S. WITH THE LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER
DWINDLING DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE END OF THE SUN-INDUCED
INSTABILITY, EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR WEST AND THE
CENTRAL TO DROP. IN ADDITION, WITH WINDS BEING FAIRLY GUSTY (20 TO
25 MPH) OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE AND THE EAST, WE COULD SEE WIND CHILLS DROP DOWN OVER
THESE AREAS TOO. THUS, A WE COULD SEE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND WIND
CHILLS DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S TONIGHT, WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS
IN THE INTERIOR WEST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL POSSIBLY DROPPING DOWN TO -
35F OR COLDER. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW COLD WE CAN GET, AS
THE GUSTINESS COULD INHIBIT TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING ALL THAT MUCH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR U.P. TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
FOR ISSUING A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
EASTERN U.P. WILL FLIRT WITH NEGATIVE 20F WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN U.P. AT THIS TIME. REGARDLESS, BE
SURE TO LIMIT YOUR TIME OUTSIDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA, AS FROSTBITE COULD SET IN WITHIN 30 MINUTES ON EXPOSED
SKIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SPRAWLING AND ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
PATTERN ACROSS MIDDLE AMERICA THANKS TO ITS SLOW DECENT INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE
SURFACE HIGH, AT APPROXIMATELY 1053MB, WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOORS
OF THE DAKOTAS WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES ITS SLOW STRETCH
WESTWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE EFFECT WILL ENABLE SNOW BANDS TO
BECOME NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL, THUS
A WEAKENING TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD,
REACHING NEBRASKA/KANSAS/IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL FURTHER
SUPPORT THE SLOW DIMINISHMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ALL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOULD BE DISSIPATED BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL TRANSIT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS THE SAME PATTERN, SUPPORTING A MOSTLY DRY
FRIDAY. BEYOND THIS, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENABLE A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES TO THREATEN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND
ANOTHER SUNDAY. THE FIRST CLIPPER APPEARS TO STRUGGLE TO HOLD MUCH
MOISTURE, WHILE THE SECOND ONE APPEARS MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED
WITH BETTER FORCING TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS INTO THE NORTHERLY SNOW
BELTS. OVERALL, SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE GIVEN
INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 3-4KT FEET, BUT INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY SUPPORT PERIODIC STRONGER SNOW BANDS PRESSING INTO WESTERN
ALGER/EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTIES. OVERALL THOUGH, GENERALLY THINKING
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.
FOR TEMPERATURES, WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURE TO WARM A LITTLE MORE
THAN THE DAY PRIOR WITH THE END RESULT POTENTIALLY BEING WIDESPREAD
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FOLLOW THE SAME WARMING TREND, ALTHOUGH A FEW COLD NIGHTS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM EST MON FEB 17 2025
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WITH
THE SNOWFLAKES TAKING ON A MORE FINE/POWDERY CRYSTAL STRUCTURE,
EXPECT THE SAND-LIKE SNOW TO GREATLY REDUCE VIS AT CMX AND IWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT CMX WHERE IFR TO AT TIMES
LIFR VIS IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW. AS THE LAKE EFFECT WEAKENS TONIGHT, EXPECT A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT IWD LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IFR AT CMX THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. AS FOR
SAW, VFR CONDITIONS ARE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH
SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS COULD BRING HIGH-END MVFR CIGS INTO SAW
TUE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DO APPEAR TO PICK UP THIS
OVERNIGHT AT CMX WITH GUSTS GETTING UP TO 20-25 KNOTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY FALL NEAR TO BELOW 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ITS POSSIBLE ELEVATED
WINDS OF 30 KNOTS MAY BE REALIZED, BUT THE INCREASINGLY STABLE
CONDITIONS THOUGH SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE WINDS TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-251-264-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JTP
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