642
FXUS63 KMQT 181135
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
635 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS TODAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS ALGER, NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES. THERE, A WIDESPREAD 3-6IN OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. IN THE WESTERN UP, ANOTHER 1-3IN OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 4IN POSSIBLE IN THE
PORCUPINES.
- WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE
MORNING.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE LES PERSISTS TONIGHT IN THE NNW WIND SNOW BELTS.
ANOTHER 1-3IN OF SNOW, LOCALLY HIGHER UP TO 4IN, IS EXPECTED.
- NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH INTO THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. LAKE BANDS CONTINUE TO
STRETCH INTO THE WESTERN AND EASTERN UP, THOUGH TO JUDGE BY IR
IMAGERY, WEBCAMS, AND AVAILABLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SNOWFALL RATES
ARE FALLING BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN UP. WILL THEREFORE ALLOW THE
ADVISORY OVER ONTONAGON COUNTY TO EXPIRE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. TO
THE EAST, IR SATELLITE CONTINUES TO LOOK COMPARATIVELY MORE
IMPRESSIVE ACROSS ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES
WHILE VISIBILITY CONTINUES TO DROP TO NEAR A MILE AT TIMES AT
NEWBERRY.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING OFF QUITE CHILLY, WELL INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR-WESTERN AND INTERIOR-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SUPERIOR,
TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
WE'RE WAKING UP TO SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE UP, WITH VALUES IN
THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THOSE AFOREMENTIONED COLDEST
SPOTS. WE'LL HAVE A SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMB THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
EARLY MORNING IR IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT MULTI-BANDED LES EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS OF THE WESTERN AND EASTERN UP, WITH
THE MOST IMPRESSIVE BANDING STILL EVIDENT ACROSS ALGER, NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES. THIS IS UNSURPRISING; MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS IN THE
WESTERN UP, DROPPING TO AROUND 3-5KFT BY SUNRISE WITH DRYING ALSO
EVIDENT IN PROFILES. AREAS TO THE EAST, MEANWHILE, ARE
"BENEFITING' FROM THE LONGER FETCH OFF OF SUPERIOR, HIGHER
INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 5-7KFT, AND MORE LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL
NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS DO
SHOW LOWER REFLECTIVITIES AND A LITTLE MORE POPCORN-EY STRUCTURE TO
THE LAKE BANDS - ALSO UNSURPRISING GIVEN THAT THOSE INVERSION
HEIGHTS ARE LOWERING (THOUGH LESS RAPIDLY THAN IN THE WEST).
WHILE SNOWFALL RATES IN THE WESTERN UP DROP TO AROUND A QUARTER TO
HALF-INCH BY SUNRISE, RATES TO THE EAST SHOULD BE AROUND A HALF TO
THREE-QUARTER INCH PER HOUR THE REST OF THE DAY. AS FAR AS SNOW
TOTALS GO, EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3IN OF SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN UP
WITH HIGHER TOTALS TO 4IN POSSIBLE IN THE PORCUPINES. WITH
PERSISTENT NW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30MPH IN THE EASTERN UP AND
HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES, BLOWING SNOW AND RAPID REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF M-28 (MAINLY EAST OF MUNISING). WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
IN ONTONAGON COUNTY, BUT WILL EXTEND THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN THE
EASTERN UP INTO THIS EVENING.
SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE TO DROP BACK TONIGHT WHILE DECREASING WINDS
SLOWLY VEER MORE NORTHERLY. THIS WILL SHIFT LINGERING LES TO THE NNW
WIND SNOW BELTS, WHERE ANOTHER 1-3IN, LOCALLY HIGHER UP TO 4IN, IS
EXPECTED. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON EXTENDING THE HEADLINES PAST 00Z
WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A FRIGID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AS LOW AS -25C. CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND INTERIOR-WESTERN UP ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
BACK WELL BELOW ZERO, WITH LOWS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE WI BORDER.
WITH A SAMPLING OF WIND CHILLS ACROSS THOSE COLDER SPOTS AROUND OR
BELOW -25F, WILL KEEP THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UP. LAKE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN AND FAR
WESTERN UP WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL
LIMIT WIND CHILLS TO THE NEGATIVE TEENS - SO, THE KEWEENAW PROBABLY
WILL NOT HAVE MET CRITERIA BY THE TIME HEADLINES DROP OFF LATER THIS
MORNING, BUT WITH CHILLY AIR REGARDLESS, WILL LET IT RIDE.
TEMPERATURES RISE ONLY A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE UP AND THE LOW TEENS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, A MODERATING
AIRMASS AS WELL AS INCREASING COVERAGE OF LAKE CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES MUCH "WARMER" OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOOK FOR
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
SPRAWLING AND ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
PATTERN ACROSS MIDDLE AMERICA THANKS TO ITS SLOW DECENT INTO AND
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE
SURFACE HIGH, AT APPROXIMATELY 1053MB, WILL BE KNOCKING ON THE DOORS
OF THE DAKOTAS WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING CONTINUES ITS SLOW STRETCH
WESTWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE EFFECT WILL ENABLE SNOW BANDS TO
BECOME NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE INVERSION HEIGHTS FALL, THUS
A WEAKENING TREND TO SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD,
REACHING NEBRASKA/KANSAS/IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL FURTHER
SUPPORT THE SLOW DIMINISHMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT ALL LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOULD BE DISSIPATED BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
WILL TRANSIT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS THE SAME PATTERN, SUPPORTING A MOSTLY DRY
FRIDAY. BEYOND THIS, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL ENABLE A COUPLE
SHORTWAVES TO THREATEN THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND
ANOTHER SUNDAY. THE FIRST CLIPPER APPEARS TO STRUGGLE TO HOLD MUCH
MOISTURE, WHILE THE SECOND ONE APPEARS MORE FAVORABLY POSITIONED
WITH BETTER FORCING TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR SNOWFALL WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST WIND SNOWBELTS INTO THE NORTHERLY SNOW
BELTS. OVERALL, SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE GIVEN
INVERSION HEIGHTS OF 3-4KT FEET, BUT INCREASED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY SUPPORT PERIODIC STRONGER SNOW BANDS PRESSING INTO WESTERN
ALGER/EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTIES. OVERALL THOUGH, GENERALLY THINKING
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE FAVORED
LOCATIONS.
FOR TEMPERATURES, WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURE TO WARM A LITTLE MORE
THAN THE DAY PRIOR WITH THE END RESULT POTENTIALLY BEING WIDESPREAD
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FOLLOW THE SAME WARMING TREND, ALTHOUGH A FEW COLD NIGHTS CAN'T BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA. BY
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR
MOST OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
NORTHWEST LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SNOWFALL RATES HAVE FALLEN BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN UP THIS MORNING,
BUT GENERALLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT IWD AND CMX THE REST
OF THE DAY. CMX DROPS BACK TO IFR TONIGHT AS STEADIER SNOWFALL RATES
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. MEANWHILE, LAKE CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OVER SAW THIS
MORNING, DROPPING CEILINGS TO MVFR. MVFR SHOULD WIN OUT AT SAW THE
REST OF THE DAY BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO LOW-END VFR CLOSER TO 00Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT NW TO STAY ELEVATED AT CMX FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 209 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
NORTHWEST FLOW OF 20-30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY FALL NEAR TO BELOW 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARMER AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. ITS POSSIBLE ELEVATED
WINDS OF 30 KNOTS MAY BE REALIZED, BUT THE INCREASINGLY STABLE
CONDITIONS THOUGH SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE WINDS TO MIX TO
THE SURFACE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ THIS MORNING
FOR MIZ001>005-009>013-084.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ240>242-263.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ243>245-251-264-267.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ249-250-266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...LC
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...JTP
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