266
FXUS63 KMQT 190020
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
720 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW TO NNW WIND SNOW
BELTS THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS ALGER, NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES. THEREFORE, A WIDESPREAD 2-8IN
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT, MOST OF WHICH IS EXPECTED AROUND MUNISING AND
PICTURED ROCKS.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND ALONG/NORTH OF M-28.
- IN THE WESTERN UP, ANOTHER 1-4IN OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THE REST
OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 5IN
POSSIBLE IN THE PORKIES AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
KEWEENAW.
- NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. WHILE SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS ALGER, NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY. IN ADDITION, THE MAIN IMPACT APPEARS TO BE THE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW OCCURRING AS WINDS UP TO 35 MPH ARE BEING SEEN; THESE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWFALL, COULD BRING
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-28 THE REST OF TODAY.
BESIDES THE EAST, THE WESTERN U.P. NW WIND SNOW BELTS ARE SEEING
SOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WITH AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW BEING SEEN FROM TIME TO TIME. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE.
THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM JUST ENOUGH TO GET BACK INTO
THE DGZ. BECAUSE OF THIS, SLRS ARE LOOKING TO BE AROUND THE UPPER
TEENS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF THE LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL UP HERE.
AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN, EXPECT THE WINDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE NNW'RLY. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER
CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST, WITH CAMS SUGGESTING THAT A STRONG SINGLE
LAKE ENHANCED BAND WILL PROGRESSIVELY SET UP OVER ALGER COUNTY. THIS
BAND LOOKS TO HAVE SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLY UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR
(THE HREF SHOWS UP TO A 30% CHANCE). THUS, THE ALGER, NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTY AREA CAN EXPECT 1 TO 6 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL FLUFFY SNOWFALL TONIGHT, WITH MOST OF IT OCCURRING AROUND
MUNISING AND PICTURED ROCKS (WHERE THE CONVERGENT BAND IS EXPECTED
TO STAY THE LONGEST). WHILE WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT, WE COULD STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY MAINLY
NORTH OF M-28. THUS, WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TONIGHT (THANKS TO THE LOWERING WINDS/LESS BLOWING SNOW), A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN
FLUFFY SNOWFALL TONIGHT. WITH SNOWFALL RATES ALSO INCREASING OVER
THE WESTERN NNW WIND SNOW BELTS TONIGHT TOO, WE COULD SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES FROM ONTONAGON TO NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES,
WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE PORKIES
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW. THIS MAKES ISSUING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY VERY TEMPTING, AS THE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES COULD CAUSE SNOWFALL TO QUICKLY PILE UP AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, WITH THE WINDS WEAKENING WITH TIME, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ONE FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE
EVENING OR MID SHIFT DECIDED TO ISSUE ONE FOR THOSE WESTERN U.P.
COUNTIES AFTER THEY RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WON'T BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS (THANKS TO SOME WEAK WAA FROM THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE), WE
COULD STILL SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT. WHILE IT SHOULD GO WITHOUT
SAYING, BE CAREFUL TO BUNDLE UP AND NOT SPEND TOO MUCH TIME OUTSIDE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS MAINLY LOW ON IMPACTS AS SPRAWLING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CONUS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND
SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK ARE NOT VERY
PROMISING FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE FROM
LES THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, TEMPS TREND TO BETWEEN 5-10F ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
LES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY OVER THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND -17C OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AT THE SFC, STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EXPANDS OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS. ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS W-E FROM THE DAKOTAS TO
QUEBEC, BUT A EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE AREA BRINGS A
MORE NNW COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. THIS RESULTS IN A WESTWARD SHIFT IN
THE LES SNOW BANDS. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE DGZ AND INVERSION HEIGHTS
AROUND 4-5KFT, SLRS ARE ANTICIPATED NEAR 20:1. THIS SHORTWAVE ALSO
INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, RESULTING IN 6HR QPF AROUND 0.05-0.10"
OVER THE NNW WIND SNOW BELTS. HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 0.20" ARE LIKELY
WHERE THERE IS BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, NOTED IN THE CAMS NEAR
CHATHAM, BUT ALSO BETWEEN IRONWOOD AND WAKEFIELD. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4" MAY WARRANT EXTENDING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ALGER COUNTY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. GENERALLY 1-2" OF ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY OVER THE NW TO NNW SNOW BELTS.
LES CONTINUES OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER THE N WIND SNOW BELTS,
BUT BUOYANCY DECREASES AS WARMER AND MORE STABLE AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES MORE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MID LEVEL RIDGING INCREASES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWER AND DRY AIR
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. THIS GRADUALLY WEAKENS SHOWER COVERAGE INTO
THURSDAY AND WORKS AGAINST ACCUMULATIONS. ADDITIONAL LES
ACCUMULATION OF 1-3" WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND UP TO 1" ON THURSDAY IS
FORECAST. ALTHOUGH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE EAST, MOST WILL BE DRY UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY TO CLEAR SKIES.
MOVING ONTO THE WEEKEND, THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMPRESSES TOWARD
THE SE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY AND NW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS. THIS ALLOWS
FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROLL OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. POPS
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE (15-24%) UNTIL
MONDAY WHEN A DEEPER SHORTWAVE AND STRONGER ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW
PROGRESS SE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. PRELUDING SHORTWAVES ARE
LACK LUSTER IN FORCING AND MOISTURE. ALSO, THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD BY NEXT WEEK IN SFC LOW TRACK AND TIMING SO THE NBM SOLUTION
WAS FAVORED. THE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGS HIGHS ABOVE
FREEZING WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING INTO THE 40S; LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. THIS INTRODUCES SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN TO MIX
IN WITH ANY PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 719 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS TO PERSIST IN NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW,
ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND CMX. SAW, HOWEVER, WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE
MVFR/VFR MARK. AND, WILL COVER ANY IFR POSSIBILITIES THERE WITH
PROB30 GROUPS. NORTHWETERLY WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AT CMX AND SAW
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN THE 10 TO 12 KT
RANGE, GUSTING TO 20 KTS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 348 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
RTHWEST FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN PREVAILING IFR VSBY CONTINUING AT CMX, WITH LIFR VSBY AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN AFTER
12Z WED. PREVAILING VSBY AT IWD EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MVFR CATEGORY
FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT, BUT LAKE
EFFECT BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT BACK OVER IWD LATE TONIGHT (ESP.
AFTER 06Z) WITH PREVAILING IFR FORECAST THEREAFTER. SAW SHOULD HOVER
BETWEEN MVFR/VFR CIGS/VSBY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
THERE IS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE FOR PERIODIC IFR VSBY 06-18Z WED. AS
LAKE EFFECT BANDS SHIFT NEARER TO THE TERMINAL.
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT,
GRADUALLY SETTLING TO 20 KTS OR LESS AND VEERING NORTH FOR
WEDNESDAY. SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LAKE (20-40% CHANCE). NORTH
WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 15-25 KTS, FALLING BELOW
20 KTS ON THURSDAY AND BACKING WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. A
WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASES STABILITY OVER THE LAKE,
BUT THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE FOR SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WEST WINDS SETTLE TO 15-25 KTS FOR
SATURDAY THEN FALL BELOW 20 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ241>245-248>250-263>266.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
LSZ251-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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