724
FXUS63 KMQT 190706
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
206 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELTS TODAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNWOFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALGER COUNTY. A WIDESPREAD 1-3IN OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 3-6 POSSIBLE ACROSS
ALGER COUNTY AND IN THE PORCUPINES.
- LES SHIFTS TO THE NNE SNOW BELTS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 1-3IN OF SNOW
EXPECTED.
- HIGH CHANCE (>75%) FOR WIDESPREAD ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NW LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUING
OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA TONIGHT FROM THE NORTH. WHILE SNOWFALL RATES ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS THEY WERE YESTERDAY, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL RATES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS ALGER, NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TODAY. IN ADDITION, THE MAIN IMPACT APPEARS TO BE THE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW OCCURRING AS WINDS UP TO 35 MPH ARE BEING SEEN; THESE
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SNOWFALL, COULD BRING
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF M-28 THE REST OF TODAY.
BESIDES THE EAST, THE WESTERN U.P. NW WIND SNOW BELTS ARE SEEING
SOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WITH AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW BEING SEEN FROM TIME TO TIME. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT, MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INCREASE.
THIS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM JUST ENOUGH TO GET BACK INTO
THE DGZ. BECAUSE OF THIS, SLRS ARE LOOKING TO BE AROUND THE UPPER
TEENS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, MUCH MORE TYPICAL OF THE LAKE
EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL UP HERE.
AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE SHORTWAVE MOVES IN, EXPECT THE WINDS TO
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE NNW'RLY. THIS WILL CREATE STRONGER
CONVERGENCE OVER THE EAST, WITH CAMS SUGGESTING THAT A STRONG SINGLE
LAKE ENHANCED BAND WILL PROGRESSIVELY SET UP OVER ALGER COUNTY. THIS
BAND LOOKS TO HAVE SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLY UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR
(THE HREF SHOWS UP TO A 30% CHANCE). THUS, THE ALGER, NORTHERN
SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTY AREA CAN EXPECT 1 TO 6 INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL FLUFFY SNOWFALL TONIGHT, WITH MOST OF IT OCCURRING AROUND
MUNISING AND PICTURED ROCKS (WHERE THE CONVERGENT BAND IS EXPECTED
TO STAY THE LONGEST). WHILE WINDS ARE PROJECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT, WE COULD STILL SEE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW EARLY MAINLY
NORTH OF M-28. THUS, WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TONIGHT (THANKS TO THE LOWERING WINDS/LESS BLOWING SNOW), A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASE IN
FLUFFY SNOWFALL TONIGHT. WITH SNOWFALL RATES ALSO INCREASING OVER
THE WESTERN NNW WIND SNOW BELTS TONIGHT TOO, WE COULD SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES FROM ONTONAGON TO NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES,
WITH SOME ISOLATED SPOTS UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE PORKIES
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KEWEENAW. THIS MAKES ISSUING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY VERY TEMPTING, AS THE OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
SNOWFALL RATES COULD CAUSE SNOWFALL TO QUICKLY PILE UP AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, WITH THE WINDS WEAKENING WITH TIME, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ONE FOR NOW. THAT BEING SAID, I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF THE
EVENING OR MID SHIFT DECIDED TO ISSUE ONE FOR THOSE WESTERN U.P.
COUNTIES AFTER THEY RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WON'T BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THE LAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS (THANKS TO SOME WEAK WAA FROM THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE), WE
COULD STILL SEE WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE MID TEENS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT. WHILE IT SHOULD GO WITHOUT
SAYING, BE CAREFUL TO BUNDLE UP AND NOT SPEND TOO MUCH TIME OUTSIDE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT SLOWING TRAVELS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH. BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING, THE 1042MB HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KANSAS WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THROUGH THE DAY, THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST,
INCREASING HEIGHTS, SUBSIDENCE, AND DRY AIR OVER THE REGION, WHICH
WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS THE SAME
PATTERN, SUPPORTING A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. BEYOND THIS, NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL ENABLE A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO THREATEN THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST
CLIPPER APPEARS TO LACK MOISTURE AND NOTABLE FORCING, SUGGESTING
ANY PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE SECOND ONE WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLY
POSITIONED WITH BETTER FORCING TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR PRECIP, SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERLY SNOW BELTS. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF 3-4KT FEET, AIR PARCEL PLACEMENT WITHIN THE DGZ ALONGSIDE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES
AND POCKETS OF LOW VISIBILITY IN THE MORNING ACROSS MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY FURTHER ENABLE THIS
POTENTIAL. OVERALL THOUGH, GENERALLY THINKING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN THESE SPOTS WITH LESS EXPECTED IN THE WEST
GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF RIDGING ALREADY BEING REALIZED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE WEEKEND, ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY SHOULD BE ALL SNOW, AND APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO EFFECT
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND FORCING, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER THE REGION FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A
MIX OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW.
FOR TEMPERATURES, WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURE TO WARM A LITTLE MORE
THAN THE DAY PRIOR INTO NEXT WEEK, STARTING OUT WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-
MID 20S THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RECENT NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD >75%
PROBABILITIES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING EACH DAY.
PROBABILITIES VARY EACH DAY AND BY LOCATION, BUT GENERAL RANGES
PRESENTED BY THE GEFS AND EPS ACROSS THE U.P. SPAN OF 20-100%.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME WARMING TREND. THE DRY AIRMASS
AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM EST TUE FEB 18 2025
CONTINUED WITH MVFR/IFR TREND FOR IWD AND CMX IN NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE
EFFECT SNOW. SAW, HOWEVER, WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE MVFR/VFR MARK.
AND, WILL COVER ANY IFR POSSIBILITIES THERE WITH PROB30 GROUP.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED ABOVE THE 12 KT THRESHOLD
AT CMX INTO THIS MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN, SETTLING TO 20 KTS OR
LESS AND VEERING NORTH FOR TODAY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 15-25 KTS, THEN FALLING MOSTLY BELOW 20 KTS
ON THURSDAY AND BACKING WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH RESULTS IN INCREASING RIDGING INTO THE REGION.
A WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASES STABILITY OVER THE LAKE,
BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A WINDOW WHERE A 30-40KT LLJ AT 925-850MB
PRESSES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE 850MB TEMPS OF BETWEEN -5
TO -10 EXISTS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT WINDS
NEAR 30KTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. BOTH NBM AND EPS SUGGEST
APPROXIMATELY 20-60% FOR AT LEAST 34 KNOTS. WE'LL CONTINUE
MONITORING TRENDS AT THIS POINT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY AT
15-25 KTS FOR SATURDAY THEN FALL BELOW 20 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-
007-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THIS
MORNING FOR LSZ241>245-248>250-263>266.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JTP
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