035
FXUS63 KMQT 191715
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1215 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW SNOW BELTS TODAY.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS MORNING ACROSS ALGER COUNTY. A WIDESPREAD 1-3IN OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 3-6 POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALGER COUNTY AND IN THE PORCUPINES.
- LES SHIFTS TO THE NNE SNOW BELTS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 1-3IN OF SNOW
EXPECTED.
- HIGH CHANCE (>75%) FOR WIDESPREAD ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 639 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH PERSISTENT NW WIND
LAKE EFFECT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND EASTERN UP. MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE IS OBSCURING LAKE BANDS ON
SATELLITE, SO WE'LL HAVE TO JUDGE CURRENT TRENDS BY RADAR - WHICH IS
SHOWING THE DOMINANT BANDING OVER ALGER COUNTY MAKING A WESTWARD
SHIFT BETWEEN DEERTON AND AU TRAIN. THIS HAS BEEN CAPTURED FAIRLY
WELL BY HI-RES GUIDANCE.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES HOVER IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO, COLDEST NEAR THE WI BORDER AS SKIES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REMAIN
CLEAR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY WORK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE
UP.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 226 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE UP, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SPRAWLED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LES
CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW WIND BELTS THROUGHOUT THE UP, BUT RADAR
TRENDS SHOW A MORE DOMINANT BAND FOCUSING INTO WESTERN ALGER COUNTY
OWING TO INCREASING CONVERGENCE WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD STEADY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MOST OF
THE UP THE REST OF THE NIGHT WHILE CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH COURTESY OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR UP.
LES PERSISTS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CAMS SHOW THE
DOMINANT BAND ACROSS ALGER COUNTY HOLDING STRONG AT LEAST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING AROUND/AFTER 18Z.
SNOWFALL RATES OF A HALF TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH/HR WILL BE
COMMON UNDER THIS BAND, BUT HREF STILL SHOWS AROUND A 30% CHANCE FOR
RATES IN EXCESS OF 1IN/HR. BLOWING SNOW IS LESS OF A CONCERN TODAY
GIVEN DECREASING WINDS, BUT HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS M-28, SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR ALGER COUNTY TO 18Z. ELSEWHERE, SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE
COMPARATIVELY LIGHTER WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS TOPPED AT AROUND 4-
5KFT. THE DGZ REMAINS NEARER TO THE SURFACE WITH A CHILLY AIRMASS IN
PLACE, WITH SLRS AT AROUND 17-19:1 - SO, A FLUFFY ENOUGH SNOWFALL TO
LIMIT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS APART FROM WHERE SNOWFALL RATES ARE
HEAVIEST. ACROSS THE NW WIND BELTS, EXPECT A WIDESPREAD 1-3INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TODAY, WITH HIGHER TOTALS TO 3-6IN IN ALGER
COUNTY AND THE PORCUPINES. TEMPERATURES, MEANWHILE, COME IN A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN ON TUESDAY, PEAKING IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AND THE LOWER 20S IN MENOMINEE COUNTY.
WINDS VEER MORE TO THE NNE TONIGHT, WITH LAKE BANDS SHIFTING TO
THOSE WIND BELTS IN TURN. SLRS INCREASE CLOSER TO 20:1, BUT WILL
NOTE THAT INVERSION HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL BACK, CUTTING BACK ON
SNOWFALL RATES. ANOTHER FLUFFY 1-3IN OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED, THOUGH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WON'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IMMEDIATELY INLAND OF SUPERIOR ACROSS MARQUETTE COUNTY.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT SLOWING TRAVELS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH. BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING, THE 1042MB HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KANSAS WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THROUGH THE DAY, THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST,
INCREASING HEIGHTS, SUBSIDENCE, AND DRY AIR OVER THE REGION, WHICH
WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS THE SAME
PATTERN, SUPPORTING A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. BEYOND THIS, NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL ENABLE A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO THREATEN THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST
CLIPPER APPEARS TO LACK MOISTURE AND NOTABLE FORCING, SUGGESTING
ANY PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE SECOND ONE WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLY
POSITIONED WITH BETTER FORCING TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR PRECIP, SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERLY SNOW BELTS. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF 3-4KT FEET, AIR PARCEL PLACEMENT WITHIN THE DGZ ALONGSIDE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES
AND POCKETS OF LOW VISIBILITY IN THE MORNING ACROSS MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY FURTHER ENABLE THIS
POTENTIAL. OVERALL THOUGH, GENERALLY THINKING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN THESE SPOTS WITH LESS EXPECTED IN THE WEST
GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF RIDGING ALREADY BEING REALIZED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE WEEKEND, ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY SHOULD BE ALL SNOW, AND APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO EFFECT
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND FORCING, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER THE REGION FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A
MIX OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW.
FOR TEMPERATURES, WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURE TO WARM A LITTLE MORE
THAN THE DAY PRIOR INTO NEXT WEEK, STARTING OUT WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-
MID 20S THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RECENT NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD >75%
PROBABILITIES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING EACH DAY.
PROBABILITIES VARY EACH DAY AND BY LOCATION, BUT GENERAL RANGES
PRESENTED BY THE GEFS AND EPS ACROSS THE U.P. SPAN OF 20-100%.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME WARMING TREND. THE DRY AIRMASS
AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
NNW LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES N LAKE EFFECT
TONIGHT, KEEPING THE TAF SITES IN GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR VIS UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO DIE OUT. CONDITIONS LOOK
WORST OVER SAW TONIGHT AS CONVERGENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
REINVIGORATE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, IWD AND CMX SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THURSDAY
MORNING; ALL OF THE TAF SITES COULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD/THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIES
DOWN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN, SETTLING TO 20 KTS OR
LESS AND VEERING NORTH FOR TODAY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 15-25 KTS, THEN FALLING MOSTLY BELOW 20 KTS
ON THURSDAY AND BACKING WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH RESULTS IN INCREASING RIDGING INTO THE REGION.
A WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASES STABILITY OVER THE LAKE,
BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A WINDOW WHERE A 30-40KT LLJ AT 925-850MB
PRESSES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE 850MB TEMPS OF BETWEEN -5
TO -10 EXISTS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT WINDS
NEAR 30KTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. BOTH NBM AND EPS SUGGEST
APPROXIMATELY 20-60% FOR AT LEAST 34 KNOTS. WE'LL CONTINUE
MONITORING TRENDS AT THIS POINT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY AT
15-25 KTS FOR SATURDAY THEN FALL BELOW 20 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ005-
006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...LC
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...JTP
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