783
FXUS63 KMQT 191841
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
141 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES OVER THE NNW WIND SNOW BELTS
THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT. A FEW INCHES COULD
BE SEEN ACROSS THESE SNOWBELTS TO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES POSSIBLY SEEING
SEVERAL INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES UNTIL THIS
EVENING.
- LES SHIFTS TO THE NNE SNOW BELTS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 1-3IN OF SNOW
EXPECTED.
- HIGH CHANCE (>75%) FOR WIDESPREAD ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
AS SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE VORTICITY BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL HAS PICKED UP OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND
SNOW BELTS TODAY, WITH WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES
SOUTHWARDS. A CONVERGENT SNOW BAND THAT WAS EXPECTED OVER THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER LINE TODAY HAS GONE FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT CAMS WERE
PREVIOUSLY SHOWING, IMPACTING DOWNTOWN MARQUETTE, HARVEY, US-41 ALL
THE WAY DOWN TO SKANDIA, AND EVEN K.I. SAWYER. WHILE LIGHT SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THESE TWO COUNTIES, EASTERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY FROM DOWNTOWN MARQUETTE AND K.I. ALL THE WAY TO
WESTERN ALGER COUNTY (MAINLY FROM MUNISING WEST) COULD STILL SEE 3
TO 7 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND 7 AM EST THURSDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE CONVERGENT BAND OVER
EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WESTERN ALGER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS; MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF ALL THIS,
EXTENDED AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER ALGER COUNTY
INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. AS WE TRANSITION TO
MORE OF MULTI-BAND SETUP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. TONIGHT, UPSLOPE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY COULD KEEP
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL GOING AS IT DECREASES ACROSS THE REST
OF THE U.P. (VIA WAA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE). THEREFORE, WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW (30%-ISH) AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOR THE WESTERN U.P. THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING; THIS EVENTUALLY BECOMES PURE LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT AND
DWINDLES WITH TIME AS WAA WORKS INTO THE REGION. OVERALL, BARAGA
COUNTY COULD SEE A FLUFFY 1 TO 3 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE KEWEENAW, ONTONAGON, AND NORTHERN GOGEBIC
COUNTIES CAN EXPECT AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH THE PORKIES AND THE
AREA AROUND IT POSSIBLY SEEING UP TO 5 OR MORE INCHES. AS FOR THE
EASTERN U.P. AND SOUTH CENTRAL, EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES UP TO AN
INCH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT SLOWING TRAVELS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH. BEGINNING THURSDAY
MORNING, THE 1042MB HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KANSAS WHILE RIDGING EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL CANADA.
THROUGH THE DAY, THE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING WILL SHIFT EAST,
INCREASING HEIGHTS, SUBSIDENCE, AND DRY AIR OVER THE REGION, WHICH
WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
DAY. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSIT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN SHIFT EASTWARD WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH FOLLOWS THE SAME
PATTERN, SUPPORTING A MOSTLY DRY FRIDAY. BEYOND THIS, NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL ENABLE A COUPLE SHORTWAVES TO THREATEN THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND ANOTHER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE FIRST
CLIPPER APPEARS TO LACK MOISTURE AND NOTABLE FORCING, SUGGESTING
ANY PRECIP WOULD BE LIGHT. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE SECOND ONE WOULD BE MORE FAVORABLY
POSITIONED WITH BETTER FORCING TO SUGGEST WIDESPREAD SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FOR PRECIP, SHOWERS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERLY SNOW BELTS. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF 3-4KT FEET, AIR PARCEL PLACEMENT WITHIN THE DGZ ALONGSIDE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES
AND POCKETS OF LOW VISIBILITY IN THE MORNING ACROSS MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY FURTHER ENABLE THIS
POTENTIAL. OVERALL THOUGH, GENERALLY THINKING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES IN THESE SPOTS WITH LESS EXPECTED IN THE WEST
GIVEN THE EFFECTS OF RIDGING ALREADY BEING REALIZED AT THIS TIME.
FOR THE WEEKEND, ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY SHOULD BE ALL SNOW, AND APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO EFFECT
THE KEWEENAW AND EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE LACK
OF MOISTURE AND FORCING, SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER THE REGION FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN A
MIX OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW.
FOR TEMPERATURES, WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN A WARMING
TREND. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURE TO WARM A LITTLE MORE
THAN THE DAY PRIOR INTO NEXT WEEK, STARTING OUT WITH WIDESPREAD LOW-
MID 20S THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RECENT NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD >75%
PROBABILITIES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING EACH DAY.
PROBABILITIES VARY EACH DAY AND BY LOCATION, BUT GENERAL RANGES
PRESENTED BY THE GEFS AND EPS ACROSS THE U.P. SPAN OF 20-100%.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FOLLOW THE SAME WARMING TREND. THE DRY AIRMASS
AND LIGHT WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE/BELOW ZERO. BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT
LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
NNW LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES N LAKE EFFECT
TONIGHT, KEEPING THE TAF SITES IN GENERALLY IFR TO LIFR VIS UNTIL
LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE LAKE EFFECT BEGINS TO DIE OUT. CONDITIONS LOOK
WORST OVER SAW TONIGHT AS CONVERGENT AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
REINVIGORATE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, IWD AND CMX SHOULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THURSDAY
MORNING; ALL OF THE TAF SITES COULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD/THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW DIES
DOWN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 205 AM EST WED FEB 19 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN, SETTLING TO 20 KTS OR
LESS AND VEERING NORTH FOR TODAY. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 15-25 KTS, THEN FALLING MOSTLY BELOW 20 KTS
ON THURSDAY AND BACKING WEST TO NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH RESULTS IN INCREASING RIDGING INTO THE REGION.
A WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND INCREASES STABILITY OVER THE LAKE,
BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE A WINDOW WHERE A 30-40KT LLJ AT 925-850MB
PRESSES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE 850MB TEMPS OF BETWEEN -5
TO -10 EXISTS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT WINDS
NEAR 30KTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. BOTH NBM AND EPS SUGGEST
APPROXIMATELY 20-60% FOR AT LEAST 34 KNOTS. WE'LL CONTINUE
MONITORING TRENDS AT THIS POINT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A
GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED. WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY SATURDAY AT
15-25 KTS FOR SATURDAY THEN FALL BELOW 20 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ005-
006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...JTP
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