043
FXUS63 KMQT 200452
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1152 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL CONTINUES OVER THE NNW WIND SNOW BELTS
THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING NORTHERLY TONIGHT. A FEW INCHES COULD
BE SEEN ACROSS THESE SNOWBELTS TO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES POSSIBLY SEEING
SEVERAL INCHES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
EASTERN MARQUETTE AND WESTERN ALGER COUNTIES UNTIL THIS
EVENING.
- LES SHIFTS TO THE NNE SNOW BELTS TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER 1-3IN OF SNOW
EXPECTED.
- HIGH CHANCE (>75%) FOR WIDESPREAD ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
AS SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE VORTICITY BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL HAS PICKED UP OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND
SNOW BELTS TODAY, WITH WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES
SOUTHWARDS. A CONVERGENT SNOW BAND THAT WAS EXPECTED OVER THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER LINE TODAY HAS GONE FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT CAMS WERE
PREVIOUSLY SHOWING, IMPACTING DOWNTOWN MARQUETTE, HARVEY, US-41 ALL
THE WAY DOWN TO SKANDIA, AND EVEN K.I. SAWYER. WHILE LIGHT SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THESE TWO COUNTIES, EASTERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY FROM DOWNTOWN MARQUETTE AND K.I. ALL THE WAY TO
WESTERN ALGER COUNTY (MAINLY FROM MUNISING WEST) COULD STILL SEE 3
TO 7 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND 7 AM EST THURSDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE CONVERGENT BAND OVER
EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WESTERN ALGER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS; MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF ALL THIS,
EXTENDED AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER ALGER COUNTY
INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. AS WE TRANSITION TO
MORE OF MULTI-BAND SETUP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. TONIGHT, UPSLOPE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY COULD KEEP
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL GOING AS IT DECREASES ACROSS THE REST
OF THE U.P. (VIA WAA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE). THEREFORE, WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW (30%-ISH) AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOR THE WESTERN U.P. THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING; THIS EVENTUALLY BECOMES PURE LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT AND
DWINDLES WITH TIME AS WAA WORKS INTO THE REGION. OVERALL, BARAGA
COUNTY COULD SEE A FLUFFY 1 TO 3 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE KEWEENAW, ONTONAGON, AND NORTHERN GOGEBIC
COUNTIES CAN EXPECT AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH THE PORKIES AND THE
AREA AROUND IT POSSIBLY SEEING UP TO 5 OR MORE INCHES. AS FOR THE
EASTERN U.P. AND SOUTH CENTRAL, EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES UP TO AN
INCH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
IMPACTS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAIN LOW DESPITE
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITHIN THE CWA. SPRAWLING SFC HIGH
PRESSURE RULES THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING BACK DRY
WEATHER TO THE UP. SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER SYSTEMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BRING MANY, ALBEIT UNIMPRESSIVE, CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. OTHERWISE, TEMPS TREND TO BETWEEN 5-10F ABOVE NORMAL,
PEAKING AROUND SUNDAY/MONDAY.
SCATTERED LES SHOWERS (NUMEROUS LES SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
UP) CONTINUE OVER THE N TO NNW WIND SNOW BELTS THURSDAY MORNING
SUPPORTED BY MARGINAL DELTA-TS (BETWEEN 12-14C). THROUGH THE DAY
POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL RIDGING SETTLES S OVER THE CWA.
MEANWHILE AT THE SFC, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS SLOWLY
SHIFTS E INCREASING RIDGING OVER THE UP. WITH DRIER AND WARMER AIR
BUILDING IN, WINDS BACKING NW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOWERING, LES
ENDS IN THE W IN THE MORNING AND COVERAGE OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND E
DIMINISHES AND SHIFTS TO MAINLY ALGER, SCHOOLCRAFT AND LUCE
COUNTIES. WITH QUICKLY DECREASING SUPPORT AND LIMITED MOISTURE AT
THAT, QPF SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 0.05". LINGERING ISOLATED LIGHT
LES OR FLURRIES LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THAT REGION INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT MOST ACCUMULATION UP TO 1" WILL OCCUR EARLIER IN THE
DAY. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S AND
SETTLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT
SAVE FOR SOME LOW TEENS POSSIBLE NEAR EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. COLDEST
TEMPS IN THE INTERIOR W COULD FALL LOWER THAN -5F IF CLOUD COVER
CLEARS AND RADIATIVE COOLING OVERACHIEVES (20-40% CHANCE).
MOVING ONTO THE WEEKEND, THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE COMPRESSES TOWARD
THE SE CONUS THROUGH SATURDAY AND NW FLOW ALOFT RETURNS. THIS ALLOWS
FOR MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO ROLL OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE PVA AND WAA SUPPORTS SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE N,
BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW 1" OF SNOW AS AVAILABLE MOISTURE
IS LIMITED. IN THE WAKE OF THAT SHORTWAVE, SOME WEAK SFC RIDGING
PASSES OVER THE REGION WITH ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALOFT.
MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPS MAY YIELD LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS, BUT WIDESPREAD RANGE OF 850MB TEMPS LEAVES LOW
CONFIDENCE (15-20% CHANCE OF SNOW INTO SATURDAY NIGHT). THE BEST
SHOT FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN A DEEPER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLIPPER LOW PROGRESS SE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/N ONTARIO. THERE IS PRETTY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE
SHORTWAVE TRACK AND THAT THIS SYSTEM BRINGS BETTER MOISTURE THAN THE
PRELUDING SHORTWAVES, BUT THERE STILL IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE
SFC TRACK AMONG THE ENSEMBLES. THE WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK
BRINGS HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING WITH SOME SPOTS REACHING INTO THE 40S
SUNDAY AND MONDAY; LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S. THIS
WARMER AIRMASS INTRODUCES SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN TO MIX IN WITH ANY
PRECIP EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT HOW COLD IT IS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH SNOW
OR RAIN OCCURS. WITH THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY, FAVORED THE NBM
SOLUTION SUNDAY ONWARD. 15-40% POPS CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
POSSIBLE TRAILING SHORTWAVES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
NNW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE
AT ALL TAF SITES. GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MVFR TO IFR CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AND,
ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO IFR OR
WORSE EARLY THIS MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING, ALL SITES SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF. NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT CMX AND SAW THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 408 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
NORTH WINDS 15-25 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS THEN
BACK WEST TO NORTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH INCREASES RIDGING OVER THE REGION. THIS ALSO ALLOWS FOR WINDS
TO FALL BELOW 20 KTS IN THE WEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY
THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE THURSDAY EVENING. A WARMING TREND INTO
THIS WEEKEND INCREASES STABILITY OVER THE LAKE, BUT THERE LOOKS TO
BE A WINDOW FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE A 30-40 KT LOW
LEVEL JET AT 925-850 MB PRESSES INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
850MB TEMPS OF BETWEEN -5 TO -10C EXISTS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT WINDS NEAR 34 KTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST ~40-70% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 34 KTS OVER THE
WEST HALF OF THE LAKE, THUS CONFIDENCE OF NEEDING A GALE WARNING
DURING THAT PERIOD IS INCREASING. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO
EXPECTED DURING THAT PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER WEST OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, SETTLING TO 15-25 KTS FOR SATURDAY. WESTERLY WINDS
FALL BELOW 20 KTS SATURDAY NIGHT, REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND BACKING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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