842
FXUS63 KMQT 200649
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
149 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE NNW SNOW
BELTS TODAY, LINGERING IN THE EASTERN UP TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SNOW TOTALS MAINLY BELOW AN INCH EXPECTED.
- HIGH CHANCE (>75%) FOR WIDESPREAD ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 131 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
AS SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE VORTICITY BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE LOW PASSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON,
LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL HAS PICKED UP OVER THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND
SNOW BELTS TODAY, WITH WINDS SLOWLY BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES
SOUTHWARDS. A CONVERGENT SNOW BAND THAT WAS EXPECTED OVER THE
MARQUETTE/ALGER LINE TODAY HAS GONE FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT CAMS WERE
PREVIOUSLY SHOWING, IMPACTING DOWNTOWN MARQUETTE, HARVEY, US-41 ALL
THE WAY DOWN TO SKANDIA, AND EVEN K.I. SAWYER. WHILE LIGHT SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THESE TWO COUNTIES, EASTERN
MARQUETTE COUNTY FROM DOWNTOWN MARQUETTE AND K.I. ALL THE WAY TO
WESTERN ALGER COUNTY (MAINLY FROM MUNISING WEST) COULD STILL SEE 3
TO 7 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND 7 AM EST THURSDAY. MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE CONVERGENT BAND OVER
EASTERN MARQUETTE COUNTY/WESTERN ALGER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS; MOST OF THE SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF ALL THIS,
EXTENDED AND EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OVER ALGER COUNTY
INTO MARQUETTE COUNTY TO 7 PM EST THIS EVENING. AS WE TRANSITION TO
MORE OF MULTI-BAND SETUP OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.P. TONIGHT, UPSLOPE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY COULD KEEP
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL GOING AS IT DECREASES ACROSS THE REST
OF THE U.P. (VIA WAA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE). THEREFORE, WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW (30%-ISH) AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED FOR MARQUETTE
COUNTY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
FOR THE WESTERN U.P. THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT,
LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING; THIS EVENTUALLY BECOMES PURE LAKE EFFECT TONIGHT AND
DWINDLES WITH TIME AS WAA WORKS INTO THE REGION. OVERALL, BARAGA
COUNTY COULD SEE A FLUFFY 1 TO 3 INCHES BETWEEN NOW AND THURSDAY
MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE KEWEENAW, ONTONAGON, AND NORTHERN GOGEBIC
COUNTIES CAN EXPECT AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES, WITH THE PORKIES AND THE
AREA AROUND IT POSSIBLY SEEING UP TO 5 OR MORE INCHES. AS FOR THE
EASTERN U.P. AND SOUTH CENTRAL, EXPECT JUST A FEW FLURRIES UP TO AN
INCH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES PRESSING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE REGION
WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENABLE
DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH THE DAY, NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF. THIS WILL EXPOSE THE FORECAST AREA TO
MULTIPLE, FAST MOVING, SHORTWAVES BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF
THESE WAVES FAVOR LIGHT PRECIP GIVEN THEIR POSITION, FORCING,
MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE KEWEENAW. A FEW MORE WAVES
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH MAY HELP ENABLE SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
EASTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. SNOW ACCUMULATION, IF ANY, SHOULD
AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR LESS. A MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TRIES TO PRESS
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS VARIATIONS IN ITS
NORTHWARD POSITION. FOR EXAMPLE, THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS
PRESENTED BY THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD
MORNING SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
CONTRASTS WITH THE EC, WHICH FOCUSES THE WAVE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SAME MIX OF SOLUTIONS IS PRESENTED IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THOUGH, IS
A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MORE ORGANIZED CLIPPER WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN, KICKING OFF WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
RAIN/SNOW MIX. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH; HOWEVER, A
MAJORITY OF GEFS, EC, AND GEPS, FOCUS THE SYSTEM AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR, WHICH HELPS REINFORCE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP. ANY
SNOW IN THIS EVENT WILL BE WET, SO EVEN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD RESULT IN SOME SLOP ON ROADWAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
PERSIST AFTERWARDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE THURSDAY
WITH MAYBE ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES, WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB TO NEAR
FREEZING SATURDAY, THEN ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. RECENT NBM GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD >75% PROBABILITIES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING EACH
DAY. THERE'S EVEN POTENTIAL FOR BREACHING ABOVE 40 DEGREES ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL. DEWPOINTS MAY INCH ABOVE FREEZING,
PARTICULARLY MONDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOWMELT, BUT
SIGNIFICANT MELT ISN'T EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP BELOW
FREEZING EACH NIGHT. THERE'S A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
TEMPERATURES BEYOND TUESDAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD
AIR TO THE NORTH WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPERS. OVERALL
THOUGH, BUT CURRENT PROBABILITIES PROVIDED BY LREF AND NBM SUGGEST A
DECREASING TREND OF ABOVE FREEZING HIGHS TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
LATE WEEK WITH NEAR ZERO CHANCES BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EST WED FEB 19 2025
NNW LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL CONTINUE SHIFT TO THE NORTH
OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BUT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE
AT ALL TAF SITES. GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MVFR TO IFR CAN BE
EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY. AND,
ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW AT SAW WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO IFR OR
WORSE EARLY THIS MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING, ALL SITES SHOULD
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TAPER OFF. NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO
20 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT CMX AND SAW THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY TODAY,
STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. INCREASING RIDGING OVER THE
REGION WILL ENABLE WINDS TO FALL BELOW 20KTS LAKE-WIDE TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRESENT A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR WARMING INTO
THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASING STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE. HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A WINDOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WHERE A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 925-850 MB PRESSES
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE 850MB TEMPS OF BETWEEN -5 TO -10C
EXISTS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT WINDS NEAR 34
KTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MOST DETERMINISTIC PACKAGES SUGGEST THIS
WHILE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SUGGEST ~50-80% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 34 KTS
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WARNING IN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT IF THE SIGNAL CONTINUES, I COULD SEE ONE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING
THAT PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER WEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
SETTLING TO 15-25 KTS FOR SATURDAY. WESTERLY WINDS FALL BELOW 20 KTS
SATURDAY NIGHT, REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND BACKING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MIZ005-
006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JTP
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