981
FXUS63 KMQT 201739
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1239 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE NNW SNOW
BELTS TODAY, LINGERING IN THE EASTERN UP TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
SNOW TOTALS MAINLY BELOW AN INCH EXPECTED.
- HIGH CHANCE (>75%) FOR WIDESPREAD ABOVE FREEZING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1107 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
MORNING SYNOPSIS: 13Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE (1043MB) SPANNING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...WEAK
LAKE INDUCED TROUGHING RUNNING WEST-EAST ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AS
WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER. COMPACT CLOSED 500MB LOW JUST SOUTH
OF LAKE ERIE...SHORT WAVE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE DAKOTAS NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO. SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE NOTED THIS MORNING
LIKELY HELPING DRIVE THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS EASTERN UPPER
AND MOST OF LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT THERE IS ALSO DRIER AIR WORKING
ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AS WELL AROUND THE UPSTREAM RIDGE.
EARLIER CONVECTIVE BANDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS WEAKENED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
FORECAST UPDATE: WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
SCHEDULE AT 15Z GIVEN RADAR TRENDS...AND OVERALL WITH LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE/DRYING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH TO JUST SOME
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. ANTICIPATE THAT WESTERN UPPER SHOULD SEE SOME
MORE SUN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS TODAY MOSTLY FROM AROUND 20 TO
THE MID 20S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 220 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOW SHOWERS PERSIST MAINLY ACROSS THE N AND NW
WIND SNOW BELTS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
HELPING TO FOCUS SOME OCCASIONALLY MODERATELY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL UP. ANOTHER 1-2IN OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN JUST ONSHORE OF SUPERIOR ACROSS NORTHERN MARQUETTE
COUNTY THE REST OF TONIGHT; WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY IN PLACE GIVEN
THE RISK FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND SLICK ROADWAYS FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE. ELSEWHERE, EXPECT TOTALS GENERALLY BELOW AN INCH BEFORE
SUNRISE.
WINDS BACK TO THE NW TODAY WHILE STEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
EXTENDS RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING
MUCH DRIER LOWER TO MIDLEVELS, LINGERING LES ACROSS THE NW WIND SNOW
BELTS TURNS LIGHTER AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF BY THE EVENING.
THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN UP, WHERE THE
LONGER FETCH OFF OF SUPERIOR WILL KEEP IN LIGHT ACCUMULATING LES
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT ACROSS ALGER, NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT,
AND LUCE COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BELOW AN INCH ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NW SNOW BELTS, BUT TOTALS UP TO 1-2IN ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN ALGER COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO TURN WARMER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
AS SKIES LARGELY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND MAY DIP BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
INTERIOR-WEST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY MULTIPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES PRESSING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO NEXT WEEK.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING, SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE REGION
WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENABLE
DAYTIME HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30F FOR MANY
LOCATIONS IN THE FORECAST AREA. THROUGH THE DAY, NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF. THIS WILL EXPOSE THE FORECAST AREA TO
MULTIPLE, FAST MOVING, SHORTWAVES BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT. MOST OF
THESE WAVES FAVOR LIGHT PRECIP GIVEN THEIR POSITION, FORCING,
MOISTURE. THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE KEWEENAW. A FEW MORE WAVES
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH MAY HELP ENABLE SNOW TO SPREAD INTO
EASTERN/CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. SNOW ACCUMULATION, IF ANY, SHOULD
AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR LESS. A MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TRIES TO PRESS
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY, BUT RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS VARIATIONS IN ITS
NORTHWARD POSITION. FOR EXAMPLE, THE MORE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS
PRESENTED BY THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD
MORNING SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
CONTRASTS WITH THE EC, WHICH FOCUSES THE WAVE FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE SAME MIX OF SOLUTIONS IS PRESENTED IN THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THOUGH, IS
A WAVE MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE PACKAGES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MORE ORGANIZED CLIPPER WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THEN, KICKING OFF WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
RAIN/SNOW MIX. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THOUGH; HOWEVER, A
MAJORITY OF GEFS, EC, AND GEPS, FOCUS THE SYSTEM AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR, WHICH HELPS REINFORCE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD PRECIP. ANY
SNOW IN THIS EVENT WILL BE WET, SO EVEN MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD RESULT IN SOME SLOP ON ROADWAYS. NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO
PERSIST AFTERWARDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE THURSDAY
WITH MAYBE ANOTHER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES, WARM AIR ADVECTION SIGNAL CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO CLIMB TO NEAR
FREEZING SATURDAY, THEN ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. RECENT NBM GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
WIDESPREAD >75% PROBABILITIES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING EACH
DAY. THERE'S EVEN POTENTIAL FOR BREACHING ABOVE 40 DEGREES ON MONDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL. DEWPOINTS MAY INCH ABOVE FREEZING,
PARTICULARLY MONDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME SNOWMELT, BUT
SIGNIFICANT MELT ISN'T EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP BELOW
FREEZING EACH NIGHT. THERE'S A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
TEMPERATURES BEYOND TUESDAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE COLD
AIR TO THE NORTH WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPERS. OVERALL
THOUGH, BUT CURRENT PROBABILITIES PROVIDED BY LREF AND NBM SUGGEST A
DECREASING TREND OF ABOVE FREEZING HIGHS TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
LATE WEEK WITH NEAR ZERO CHANCES BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD IMPROVING FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...ALREADY VFR AT KCMX AND EXPECT KIWD TO FOLLOW
SHORTLY. STILL MVFR CEILINGS AND FLURRIES AT KSAW...WE'LL SEE
HOW THINGS EVOLVE HERE AS WINDS BACK MORE NORTHWESTERLY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
21-22Z THEN BECOMING PREVAILING VFR AFTERWARD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 149 AM EST THU FEB 20 2025
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY TODAY,
STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. INCREASING RIDGING OVER THE
REGION WILL ENABLE WINDS TO FALL BELOW 20KTS LAKE-WIDE TONIGHT.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO PRESENT A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR WARMING INTO
THIS WEEKEND, WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT INCREASING STABILITY OVER THE
LAKE. HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A WINDOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE OVERNIGHT WHERE A 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 925-850 MB PRESSES
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE 850MB TEMPS OF BETWEEN -5 TO -10C
EXISTS. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT WINDS NEAR 34
KTS MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MOST DETERMINISTIC PACKAGES SUGGEST THIS
WHILE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SUGGEST ~50-80% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 34 KTS
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE. WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WARNING IN
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT IF THE SIGNAL CONTINUES, I COULD SEE ONE
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING
THAT PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY VEER WEST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
SETTLING TO 15-25 KTS FOR SATURDAY. WESTERLY WINDS FALL BELOW 20 KTS
SATURDAY NIGHT, REMAINING BELOW 20 KTS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
AND BACKING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...JPB
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...JPB
MARINE...JTP
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