304
FXUS63 KMQT 210521
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1221 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING LAKE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
TONIGHT CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN.
- SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WITH UNCERTAINTY.
- LOOKING MILDER THIS WEEKEND...A RETURN OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES?
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: NARROW NORTH-SOUTH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
SPANS THE PLAINS STATES AND EXTENDS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...OUTLINING A CORE OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. COMPACT MID LEVEL LOW WAS
TRACKING EAST ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WITH A SHORT WAVE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO. JUST
UPSTREAM OF THAT IS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH/PV ANOMALY WHICH IS
EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BUT MOVING INTO DRIER AIR THIS
FEATURE HAS LITTLE IMPACT. THIS DRY AIR COMING AROUND THE RIDGE AND
ADVECTING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR HAS THINNED THE CLOUD COVER OUT OVER
WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS AND FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FROM AROUND MQT
EASTWARD.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO MISSOURI WITH
RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHEAST. AS THIS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
UPPER PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SET IN
AS SURFACE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
LINGERING LAKE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES
TONIGHT CENTRAL/EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN: OVERALL FORECAST CONCERNS
ARE MINIMAL AND MORE NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING GIVEN THE CONTEXT OF
THIS RELENTLESS WINTER. EXPECTATION IS THAT LAKE CLOUDS AND SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ARE GOING TO PERSIST MAINLY EAST OF MQT
TONIGHT...ENOUGH DEPTH TO THE CBL (INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 850MB/
-15C) AND FLIRTING A BIT WITH THE DGZ COMBINED WITH JUST THE
INERTIA OF THESE EVENTS TO EXPECT THAT SNOWFLAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO FLY. BACKING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD BRING THIS TO AN END
FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
PATTERN FORECAST:
BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGHING IN PLACE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH SEVERAL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN...ONE OF WHICH IS
SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A CLOSED MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LAKE ERIE. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS
SPINNING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN. THIS LATTER WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY...WHILE A
WEAKER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO MICHIGAN ALONG WITH MILDER AIR. A
BETTER DEFINED ALBERTA CLIPPER MAY ARRIVE IN THE MONDAY TIME FRAME
THOUGH A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
SOME INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH WITH UNCERTAINTY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE SPRAWLED OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SATURDAY...WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INTO THE UPPER LAKES.
INDICATIONS OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSING AS WELL...WITH
AN INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE BUT NOT MUCH OF A SIGNAL IN THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES WHICH I'M NOT SURE I AGREE WITH.
THERE IS A BIT OF A SIGNAL IN THE QPF SO DID SOME BLENDING TO AT
LEAST GET SOME PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE KEWEENAW STARTING ON SATURDAY...AND A LITTLE FARTHER
SOUTH ON SUNDAY BUT OVERALL PRETTY MINIMAL. WANT TO AT LEAST GET
THE IDEA INTO THE FORECAST AND THEN REFINE IT LATER. POTENTIAL
FOR A BETTER DEFINED ALBERTA CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK BUT ALREADY TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES WITH
THIS FEATURE. HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN JUST A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY (REMOVED ANY LIKELY TYPE WORDING FROM THE FORECAST
UNTIL WE GET A BETTER IDEA WITH REGARD TO SYSTEM TIMING).
LOOKING MILDER THIS WEEKEND...A RETURN OF ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES?: LAST TIME MARQUETTE WAS ABOVE FREEZING WAS JANUARY
30TH...AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A DECENT CHANCE OF THIS
OCCURRING AGAIN ON SUNDAY (~55%). SOME ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR WESTERN UPPER ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS MOST OF UPPER MICHIGAN WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. ONLY THING TO
NOTE WILL BE A WIND DIRECTION SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND MID-MORNING FRIDAY AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT
CMX STARTING FRIDAY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 409 PM EST THU FEB 20 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS TO START TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED BACK AROUND TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY
MORNING...UPWARDS OF 30KTS BY AFTERNOON. STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE LAKE LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST
SATURDAY BUT SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES. WINDS EXPECTED TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH LATER SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...JTP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JTP
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