654
FXUS63 KMQT 211109
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
609 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND (20% OR LESS) WITH
PERHAPS BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS GREAT.
- LOOKING MILDER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY. MODELS THEN TREND TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK (THURSDAY-FRIDAY).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 608 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE UP, SAVE THE FAR EAST WHERE
STUBBORN LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED FARTHER THAN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR-WEST AND CENTRAL. ACROSS GOGEBIC COUNTY, THERE
ARE WIDESPREAD READINGS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW -10F, SPORADIC
OBSERVATIONS BELOW -10F ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR UP. SO,
TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH THIS LATEST UPDATE. THE FORECAST REMAINS
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 224 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXTENDING RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES
ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE UP APART FROM IN THE FAR EAST, WHERE CHILLY NNW
FLOW IS KEEPING IN SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW AN INCH.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING BACK BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UP - AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR
SUPERIOR AND IN THE KEWEENAW. LOWS SHOULD ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
TEENS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TO THE EAST.
WINDS BACK TO THE SW ACROSS THE UP FOR TODAY, BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LES WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UP,
AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK RIPPLE
SET TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTURE-
STARVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
MEAN MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD, IN GENERAL, TO BROAD
DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHEAST U.S. THIS, IN TURN, WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A
SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
BEGINNING SATURDAY, THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER SHORTWAVES
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FORCING WILL
STAY NORTHEAST OF THE FCST AREA. WEAK CAA ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE
IN A WNW FLOW WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING AROUND -12C COULD BRING
SOME FLURRIES OR ISOLATED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE KEWEENAW
AND FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE U.P. ON SATURDAY.
AFTER QUIETER AND WARMER WEATHER ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER CLIPPER
SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
MODELS IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
SYSTEM. THE 00Z GFS AND NAM SHOW A WEAKER SYSTEM STAYING NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH LITTLE NO PCPN FOR THE U.P., WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS
SHORTWAVES SPLITTING MAINLY NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SOME
PCPN BRUSHING THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES. THE 00Z CANADIAN MODEL IS
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPROMISE SOLUTION BUT DOES INDICATE A POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT MIXED PCPN OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
AS A RESULT, DECIDED TO CUT BACK FROM LIKELY NBM POPS TO HIGH CHC
POPS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
MODELS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL CLIPPER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT WEEK, BUT AGAIN, MODEL AGREEMENT AND RESOLUTION ON THE
DETAILS OF THESE FEATURES IS POOR AT THIS TIME. THERE DOES SEEM TO
BE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A MORE PROMINENT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA MIDWEEK BRINGING A PERIOD OF SYSTEM SNOW AND
NORTHERLY FLOW LES BEHIND IT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO -20C OR COLDER BY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING THIS WEEKEND TO TREND ABOVE
FREEZING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF WEEK AND THEN TREND TO NEAR OR BLO
NORMAL LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. ONLY THING TO
NOTE WILL BE A WIND DIRECTION SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST
AROUND MID-MORNING AND SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT CMX
STARTING THIS EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 334 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BACK SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INCREASE TO 20-30 KT THIS
AFTERNOON, HIGHEST OVER WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KT IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING OVER LSZ263-264 (65-75% PROBABILITY OF GALES), AND GALE
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM SAT 00-06Z. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS THEN
DIMINISH TO 25-30 KT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH BLO 20 KT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM, HIGHEST OVER THE EAST HALF. AFTER THAT
THOUGH, WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...LC
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...VOSS
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