223
FXUS63 KMQT 211853
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
153 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND (20% OR LESS) WITH
PERHAPS BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS GREAT.
- LOOKING MILDER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY. MODELS THEN TREND TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK (THURSDAY-FRIDAY).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 608 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE UP, SAVE THE FAR EAST WHERE
STUBBORN LAKE CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED FARTHER THAN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR-WEST AND CENTRAL. ACROSS GOGEBIC COUNTY, THERE
ARE WIDESPREAD READINGS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW -10F, SPORADIC
OBSERVATIONS BELOW -10F ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR UP. SO,
TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THESE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH THIS LATEST UPDATE. THE FORECAST REMAINS
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 224 AM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS
EXTENDING RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. EARLY THIS MORNING, SKIES
ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE UP APART FROM IN THE FAR EAST, WHERE CHILLY NNW
FLOW IS KEEPING IN SOME LAKE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW AN INCH.
MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING BACK BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL UP - AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO NEAR
SUPERIOR AND IN THE KEWEENAW. LOWS SHOULD ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
TEENS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES TO THE EAST.
WINDS BACK TO THE SW ACROSS THE UP FOR TODAY, BRINGING AN END TO ANY
LES WITH SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST. HOWEVER, AN APPROACHING MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN UP,
AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH
THE NIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING WAVE AND AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK RIPPLE
SET TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MOISTURE-
STARVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
PRECIPITATION LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID 20S THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
FALLING BACK INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE IN THE DESERT SW, A
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ONE IN NEW ENGLAND 12Z
SAT. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SUN. A SHORTWAVE NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG 00Z MON PASSES NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON
MORNING. AREA GETS SIDESWIPED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT PCPN IN WEST
WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED LIGHT PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN, SNOW AND RAIN POSSIBLE.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS
MEXICO, A TROUGH IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC
NW 12Z TUE. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. BY 12Z THU, A STRONG RIDGE IS IN THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER AIR
PATTERN AMPLIFIES 12Z FRI WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUE AND WED TO BELOW NORMAL THU AND NEAR NORMAL ON FRI. MORE MIXED
PCPN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THRU SAT MORNING, ALLOWING VFR
TO PREVAIL AT IWD/SAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. AT CMX, SW WINDS WILL
VEER A LITTLE TONIGHT, RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT OVERLAKE TRAJECTORY
FOR LAKE STRATOCU (MVFR CIGS) TO DEVELOP AT SOME POINT OVERNIGHT.
INCREASING WINDS OVERTOP STABLE SFC-BASED LAYER TONIGHT WILL ALSO
RESULT IN LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE APPROACHING LLWS CRITERIA AT
IWD/SAW. LATER FCSTS WILL REASSESS THAT POTENTIAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND GALE WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD. WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
BELOW 20 KT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 KT SUN
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM, HIGHEST OVER THE
EAST HALF. AFTER THAT THOUGH, WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
UPDATE...
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...07
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page