211
FXUS63 KMQT 220818
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND (20% OR LESS) WITH
PERHAPS BETTER CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY IS GREAT.
- LOOKING MILDER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY. MODELS THEN TREND TO
NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK (THURSDAY-FRIDAY).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 317 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS
NOTED ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS IS POISED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY. MODELS SHOW WEAK Q-
VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH. LIMITED MOISTURE ALONG
WITH WEAK LIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LITTLE, IF ANY, PCPN TODAY.
MODELS SUGGEST THE BEST OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL BE ACROSS THE
KEWEENAW AND FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IS NOTED. EVEN SO, ONLY
SLIGHT CHC POPS WILL BE WARRANTED OVER THESE AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT HIGHS TODAY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S EAST TO THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER
VARIABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE TEENS, EXCEPT FOR LOWER
20S ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORE.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SHORTWAVE IN THE DESERT SW, A
SHORTWAVE IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ONE IN NEW ENGLAND 12Z
SAT. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN U.S. 12Z SUN. A SHORTWAVE NEAR
LAKE WINNIPEG 00Z MON PASSES NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MON
MORNING. AREA GETS SIDESWIPED WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT PCPN IN WEST
WIND LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND EAST ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN SUNDAY LOOKS DRY. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME MIXED LIGHT PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME FREEZING
RAIN, SNOW AND RAIN POSSIBLE.
IN THE EXTENDED, THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A BROAD 500 MB RIDGE ACROSS
MEXICO, A TROUGH IN THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER IN THE PACIFIC
NW 12Z TUE. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z
WED. BY 12Z THU, A STRONG RIDGE IS IN THE WESTERN U.S. UPPER AIR
PATTERN AMPLIFIES 12Z FRI WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S.
AND A DEEP TROUGH IN THE EAST. TEMPERATURES GO FROM ABOVE NORMAL ON
TUE AND WED TO BELOW NORMAL THU AND NEAR NORMAL ON FRI. MORE MIXED
PCPN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT IWD FOR THE DURATION OF TAF PERIOD. AT CMX AND
SAW, THOUGH, EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR LATER THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON
UNDER LAKE STRATOCU. MEANWHILE, STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
GUST TO 20-25 KTS AT CMX THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 153 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2025
SOUTHWEST GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND GALE WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD. WEST WINDS
OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
BELOW 20 KT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH PUSHES IN
FROM THE NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 20-25 KT SUN
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM, HIGHEST OVER THE
EAST HALF. AFTER THAT THOUGH, WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...07
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