163
FXUS63 KMQT 280833
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
433 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO ROUNDS OF IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD SLEET,
SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- FREEZING RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, RANGING FROM A LIGHT GLAZE (FAR WESTERN UP)
TO 0.25-0.50IN (KEWEENAW, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN UP).
- AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY, A ROUND OF
WET, HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN
IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
- NORTHEAST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OVER CENTRAL WI OUT AHEAD OF IT.
OVERRUNNING WAA HAS ALREADY BROUGHT 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA, THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30. SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS ARE APPARENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN UP AND LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH
IR IMAGERY LIKEWISE SHOWING COOLER CLOUD TOPS STRETCHING OUT OVER
THE AREA COURTESY OF A WEAKER MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH.
SHOULD ANYTHING TOUCH THE GROUND, SOUNDINGS ARE YET COOL ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FROM THE KEWEENAW TO THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UP.
INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL WI HEADS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE UP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
INTO MN AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS WI TONIGHT. SPOTTY, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTH, POSSIBLY STARTING AS A
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER MAINLY TO RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING GENERALLY INTO THE MID 30S
AREA-WIDE. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL UP
AND THE KEWEENAW MAY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN TO PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET MAY EVEN LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY
IN THE KEWEENAW WITH THE WARM NOSE NOT AS PROMINENT.
THIS EVENING, EXPECT PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH WI. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY COURTESY OF THE CAMS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, AFTER WHICH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TAPERS OFF. WILL ALSO NOTE SEVERAL HUNDRED TO
ALMOST 1000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE, AS WELL AS ~65KTS OF SHEAR ABOVE
THE INVERSION. UNSURPRISING, THEN, THAT CAM GUIDANCE LOOKS RATHER
MORE THUNDERSTORM-EY THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM A WINTER EVENT.
COULD WE BE LOOKING AT MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDER-ICE STORMS? THE
MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL. AS FOR PTYPE: SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DEEP MELTING LAYER FROM AROUND 10KFT-3KFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UP
(SHALLOWER AND MORE ELEVATED IN THE KEWEENAW) WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. THUS, THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE MAY END UP BEING FREEZING RAIN OR A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX.
WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE KEWEENAW.
THIS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP (THE ICE STORM
WARNING AREAS), AND A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH IN THE KEWEENAW AND THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UP. LIGHTER ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ONTONAGON AND GOGEBIC COUNTY TONIGHT. SNOW/SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS BELOW AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE UP, WITH UP TO 1-3IN IN THE KEWEENAW. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE WILL BE GUSTY NE
WINDS THAT MAY EXACERBATE IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING ICE AND WET
SNOW.
A BRIEF LULL IN ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY. MORE ON
THAT BELOW.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AND ICE STORM WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 339 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
THE FIRST ROUND OF THE EXPECTED WINTER WEATHER/ICE STORM DEVELOPS
OVER US FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT OF A CLIPPER PHASES WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITH ANTECEDENT DRY
AIR HAVING TO BE OVERCOME, EXPECT PRECIPITATION RATES TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT DURING THE MORNING. YET EVEN STILL, EXPECT A STRONG NEGATIVE
LAYER BELOW A STRONG POSITIVE LAYER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH PROFILES SATURATING UP TO 5 KFT. WITH FORCING BEING
STRONG IN THE LOW LEVELS, WE COULD SEE UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES
PROGRESSIVELY WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MARQUETTE
& BARAGA COUNTIES AND THE KEWEENAW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WARM TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING,
ALLOWING THE TRANSITION TO RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF THE U.P..
SPEAKING OF THE KEWEENAW, WITH THE WARM NOSE NOT BEING AS STRONG
FURTHER NORTH, SNOWFALL AND SLEET HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF MIXING
INTO THE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY; CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST
CALLS FOR NORTHERN HOUGHTON AND KEWEENAW COUNTIES RECEIVING UP TO A
QUARTER INCH OF ICE AND UP TO 4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOWFALL FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS, I'VE PUT THEM UNDER A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR THE MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND ASSOCIATED
HAZARDS EXPECTED. AS FOR THE REST OF THE U.P., COLDER TEMPERATURES
OVERSPREAD THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY ALLOWING SIGNIFICANT
ICE AMOUNTS TO ACCRETE ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF UPPER MICHIGAN.
PRECIPITATION RATES LOOK TO BE HIGHEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
WHEN WE COULD SEE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. INDEED SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GET TO 7-8C/KM, THE HRRR HAS MUCAPES OVER 1000J/KG IN
SPOTS, AND THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 70 KNOTS
(GRANTED, MOST OF IT IS BETWEEN THE INVERSION IN THE LOWER LEVELS
AND THE FREE ATMOSPHERE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS). THUS, WHILE NOT
EXPECTED, IT IS TECHNICALLY WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY FOR US
TO ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HAIL WITH FREEZING RAIN
BEING THE MAIN P-TYPE (DIDN'T HAVE THIS ON MY PERSONAL LIST FOR
THINGS I'D EXPERIENCE IN MY CAREER!). AS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
DIES DOWN AND THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION HEADS SOUTHEASTWARDS LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT, WE COULD SEE THE TRANSITION OVER TO LIGHT SLEET AND
LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE NORTHERN U.P. BEFORE THE SYSTEM WINTRY MIX
ENDS SATURDAY MORNING. OVERALL, WHILE WE COULD SEE UP TO A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ICE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING (EXCEPTIONS
ARE THE FAR WEST AND SOUTHERN MENOMINEE COUNTY NEAR THE CITY), WE
COULD EXPECT TO SEE ANOTHER TENTH TO HALF INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATE
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE THE SYSTEM PRECIPITATION
ENDS SATURDAY MORNING. THUS, BARAGA AND MARQUETTE COUNTIES ARE NOW
UNDER AND ICE STORM WARNING, WHEREAS THE COUNTIES BORDERING
WISCONSIN, ONTONAGON, AND SOUTHERN HOUGHTON COUNTIES ARE ONLY UNDER
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE PROJECTED TO
GREATEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST. AS FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES, AT THE
NEIGHBORING OFFICE'S REQUEST, WE KEPT DELTA/ALGER EASTWARD UNDER A
WINTER STORM WATCH.
AS WE EXPERIENCE A GENERAL LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY, WE
COULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE/SLEET SHOWERS OVER THE
HIGHLANDS OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN. AS THE SECOND
SYSTEM, A LOW LIFTING FROM COLORADO, LIFTS TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATE SATURDAY, EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO RETURN ACROSS
THE AREA.
WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK OF THE COLORADO LOW AT
THIS TIME, WITH THE MODELS TRENDING FURTHER NORTHWEST WITH THE
TRACK, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL HAS SHIFTED FROM THE INTERIOR
WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL TO FAR WEST AND KEWEENAW. THIS WOULD IN TURN
BRING ADDITIONAL SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.P. IN COMPARISON TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE EVENT LOOKS
TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS SECOND ROUND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT
WET SNOWFALL AND ICE TO THE AREA; ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES AND
DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL ARE PROBABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF A 'BREAK' IN-
BETWEEN THE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT US DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. KEEP
YOUR EYES ON THIS, AS MORE SNOW AND ICE COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 115 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT BEFORE CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR FROM
AROUND 12Z ONWARD. THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST
DETERIORATES CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES TO IFR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTRODUCES A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING THAT
IMPACTS MUCH OF THE COMING WEEKEND. FURTHER DETERIORATION DOWN TO
VLIFR LATER ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS AT
ALL SITES. SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, RAIN AND SNOW ARE ALL POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT THU MAR 27 2025
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN WINDS TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS THIS EVENING AHEAD A CLIPPER LOW
COMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS
LOW APPROACHES, EXPECT EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE,
EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHEAST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. WHILE GALES
LOOK TO WEAKEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, NORTHEAST GALES UP
TO 35 KNOTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT THE
WINDS TO SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, WITH THE WINDS LOOKING TO
EVENTUALLY BECOME 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN LATE MONDAY NIGHT. KEEP AN
EYE OUT ON THE WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT!
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR MIZ004-005.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING
TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ010>012-084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM
EDT /1 AM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...07
MARINE...TAP
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