039
FXUS63 KMQT 282025
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
425 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO ROUNDS OF IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD SLEET,
SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- FREEZING RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, RANGING FROM A LIGHT GLAZE
(FAR WESTERN UP) TO 0.25-0.50 IN (KEWEENAW, CENTRAL, AND
EASTERN UP).
- AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY, A ROUND
OF WET, HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET, FREEZING RAIN,
AND RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION OF THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
- NORTHEAST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OVER CENTRAL WI OUT AHEAD OF IT.
OVERRUNNING WAA HAS ALREADY BROUGHT 850MB TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA, THOUGH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30. SOME WEAK RADAR
RETURNS ARE APPARENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN UP AND LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH
IR IMAGERY LIKEWISE SHOWING COOLER CLOUD TOPS STRETCHING OUT OVER
THE AREA COURTESY OF A WEAKER MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH.
SHOULD ANYTHING TOUCH THE GROUND, SOUNDINGS ARE YET COOL ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW FROM THE KEWEENAW TO THE FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UP.
INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL WI HEADS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE UP AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY TRACKS
INTO MN AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS WI TONIGHT. SPOTTY, LIGHT
PRECIPITATION SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTH, POSSIBLY STARTING AS A
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN MIX BEFORE CHANGING OVER MAINLY TO RAIN INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING GENERALLY INTO THE MID 30S
AREA-WIDE. HOWEVER, THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
UP AND THE KEWEENAW MAY STAY COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN TO
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET MAY EVEN LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THE KEWEENAW WITH THE WARM NOSE NOT AS
PROMINENT.
THIS EVENING, EXPECT PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH WI. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY COURTESY OF THE CAMS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, AFTER WHICH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TAPERS OFF. WILL ALSO NOTE SEVERAL HUNDRED TO
ALMOST 1000J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE, AS WELL AS ~65KTS OF SHEAR ABOVE
THE INVERSION. UNSURPRISING, THEN, THAT CAM GUIDANCE LOOKS RATHER
MORE THUNDERSTORM-EY THAN WOULD BE EXPECTED FROM A WINTER EVENT.
COULD WE BE LOOKING AT MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDER-ICE STORMS? THE
MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE HAIL. AS FOR PTYPE: SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A DEEP MELTING LAYER FROM AROUND 10KFT-3KFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE UP
(SHALLOWER AND MORE ELEVATED IN THE KEWEENAW) WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR/BELOW FREEZING. THUS, THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE MAY END UP BEING FREEZING RAIN OR A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX. WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW.
THIS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER TO
HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP (THE ICE
STORM WARNING AREAS), AND A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH IN THE
KEWEENAW AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UP. LIGHTER ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ONTONAGON AND GOGEBIC
COUNTY TONIGHT. SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS BELOW AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UP, WITH UP TO 1-3IN IN
THE KEWEENAW. AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND
NEAR THE SUPERIOR SHORELINE WILL BE GUSTY NE WINDS THAT MAY
EXACERBATE IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING ICE AND WET SNOW.
A BRIEF LULL IN ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER ROUND FOR SUNDAY. MORE ON
THAT BELOW.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AND ICE STORM WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE FIRST ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END SAT
MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT FLATTENS AND THE E DEPARTING SFC LOW
WEAKENS. NE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME -SN/DZ/FZDZ OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE W, PROLONGING SLICK TRAVELING CONDITIONS. THE BEST
AREA FOR A FEW HUNDRETHS OF QPF WOULD BE IN THE N CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
OUTSIDE THOSE REGIONS, A LULL IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES.
A CO LOW DEVELOPS ON SAT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS PAIR LIFTS NE TO WI BY SUN MORNING, CONTINUING OVER
LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THROUGH MON MORNING. SINCE THE BEST FORCING
PASSES ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE, A SPREAD OF ALL WINTRY MIX
IMPACTS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SECOND ROUND ACROSS THE UP. THERE
STILL IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SN AXIS AND AREA OF -PL/
FZRA IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE UP DUE TO SFC TRACK SPREAD. THIS
IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 12/24 HRS AS THE RESPONSIBLE
SHORTWAVE HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER S CA THIS MORNING AND THE SAMPLING
OF THIS ENERGY WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ENSEMBLES HAVE KEYED
IN ON THE FAR W AND N CENTRAL HIGH LANDS FOR THE HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS...POTENTIALLY NEEDING UPGRADES FROM CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN THE FAR W CORNER OF THE UP. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
6"/24HR ARE 30-60%, HIGHEST IN THE KEWEENAW. PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST 0.25" OF ICE ARE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL UP (40-55%), BUT 10-
25% SPANS MUCH OF THE UP. GIVEN THE WET, HEAVY SNOW (SLRS GENERALLY
<10:1) AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS, TRAVEL HAZARDS
ARE LIKELY AND POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
OPTED TO ADD IRON, DICKINSON, AND MENOMINEE TO AN ICE STORM WARNING
8 PM SAT THROUGH 8 PM SUN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPS AND A
N STREAM TROUGH PIVOTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LOOK TO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF -LES SHOWERS OVER THE N WIND SNOW BELTS INTO MON
AFTERNOON. FROM THERE, HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING SE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND DECREASING CYCLONIC FLOW SHIFTS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE W
AND BRINGS BACK DRY WEATHER TO THE UP.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MID NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX
TO THE UP.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS WINTER
STORM MOVES THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. CURRENTLY, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
PREVAILING AT IWD AND SAW WITH LIFR AT CMX, BUT EXPECT FURTHER
DETERIORATION AT IWD AND SAW AS WELL WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION.
INITIAL PTYPE AT IWD SHOULD BE RAIN, BUT SAW COULD SEE MORE OF A
FREEZING RAIN/RAIN THREAT INITIALLY WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN TRANSITION BACK TO WINTRY MIX TONIGHT. AND, AT
CMX, SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO A FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET MIX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN BACK TO FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE WINTRY MIX, THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AT IWD AND SAW; HOWEVER,
ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. IN
ADDITION, STRONG EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSISTENTLY GUST UP
TO 25 TO 30 KTS AT CMX THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
EAST WINDS 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE LAKE GRADUALLY BACK NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH THE WEST HALF INCREASING TO GALES TO 35-
40 KTS. NORTHEAST WINDS SETTLE BACK TO 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE LAKE
SATURDAY MORNING, HOLDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO END THE
GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AT 8 AM EDT SATURDAY; SOME
CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD PERIODIC GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING
THE LULL PERIOD (40-70% CHANCE) OVER THE FAR WEST. THEN ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT, CROSSING
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN AN
UPTICK IN WINDS AGAIN WITH GALES TO 35 KTS OVER THE WEST HALF ON
SUNDAY. WINDS BACK NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT, DIMINISHING TO 20-30 KTS
ACROSS THE LAKE. A SECOND GALE WARNING WAS ADDED TO THE OTHER
WESTERN ZONES AT 5 AM EDT SUNDAY. WINDS FURTHER SETTLE BELOW 20 KTS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD UP TO 10-14 FT OVER THE WEST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WAVES SETTLE ON SATURDAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN UP TO
AROUND 10 FT ON SUNDAY, EXPANDING HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK NORTH. BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS, PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ALSO PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER THE EAST.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 20-30 KTS IS EXPECTED MID
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF GALES TO 35 KTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
AROUND 40-70%, HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-009.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ004-005.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ006-007-013-014-
085.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
MIZ010>012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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