785
FXUS63 KMQT 282237
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
637 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO ROUNDS OF IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD SLEET,
SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- FREEZING RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, RANGING FROM A LIGHT GLAZE (FAR WESTERN UP)
TO 0.25-0.50IN (KEWEENAW, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN UP).
- AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY, A ROUND
OF WET, HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET, FREEZING
RAIN, AND RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
- NORTHEAST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 520 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SD/MN BORDER WITH ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WI/LOWER MI. THIS WAA
HAS KEPT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UP MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH
SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHEST
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS NOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UP. FARTHER WEST,
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS INITIATING ACROSS THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA,
BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NON-SEVERE BY THE TIME THEY
ENTER THE UP, SO THE HAIL THREAT HAS BEEN REMOVED.
THIS EVENING, EXPECT PRECIPITATION RATES TO INCREASE AS THE LOW
MOVES THROUGH WI. SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY COURTESY OF THE CAMS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT, AFTER WHICH
PRECIPITATION SLOWLY TAPERS OFF. AS FOR PTYPE: SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO FAVOR A FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIX ALONG WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN
ACROSS THE KEWEENAW. THIS WILL YIELD WIDESPREAD ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP
(THE ICE STORM WARNING AREAS), AND A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH IN THE
KEWEENAW AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UP. LIGHTER ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ONTONAGON AND GOGEBIC COUNTY
TONIGHT. SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATIONS BELOW AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE UP WITH UP TO 1-3 INCHES IN THE KEWEENAW.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN ACROSS THE KEWEENAW AND NEAR THE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE WILL BE GUSTY NE WINDS THAT MAY EXACERBATE IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING ICE AND WET SNOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE FIRST ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END SAT
MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT FLATTENS AND THE E DEPARTING SFC LOW
WEAKENS. NE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME -SN/DZ/FZDZ OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE W, PROLONGING SLICK TRAVELING CONDITIONS. THE BEST
AREA FOR A FEW HUNDRETHS OF QPF WOULD BE IN THE N CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
OUTSIDE THOSE REGIONS, A LULL IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES.
A CO LOW DEVELOPS ON SAT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS PAIR LIFTS NE TO WI BY SUN MORNING, CONTINUING OVER
LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THROUGH MON MORNING. SINCE THE BEST FORCING
PASSES ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE, A SPREAD OF ALL WINTRY MIX
IMPACTS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SECOND ROUND ACROSS THE UP. THERE
STILL IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SN AXIS AND AREA OF -PL/
FZRA IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE UP DUE TO SFC TRACK SPREAD. THIS
IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 12/24 HRS AS THE RESPONSIBLE
SHORTWAVE HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER S CA THIS MORNING AND THE SAMPLING
OF THIS ENERGY WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ENSEMBLES HAVE KEYED
IN ON THE FAR W AND N CENTRAL HIGH LANDS FOR THE HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS...POTENTIALLY NEEDING UPGRADES FROM CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN THE FAR W CORNER OF THE UP. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
6"/24HR ARE 30-60%, HIGHEST IN THE KEWEENAW. PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST 0.25" OF ICE ARE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL UP (40-55%), BUT 10-
25% SPANS MUCH OF THE UP. GIVEN THE WET, HEAVY SNOW (SLRS GENERALLY
<10:1) AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS, TRAVEL HAZARDS
ARE LIKELY AND POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
OPTED TO ADD IRON, DICKINSON, AND MENOMINEE TO AN ICE STORM WARNING
8 PM SAT THROUGH 8 PM SUN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPS AND A
N STREAM TROUGH PIVOTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LOOK TO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF -LES SHOWERS OVER THE N WIND SNOW BELTS INTO MON
AFTERNOON. FROM THERE, HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING SE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND DECREASING CYCLONIC FLOW SHIFTS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE W
AND BRINGS BACK DRY WEATHER TO THE UP.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MID NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX
TO THE UP.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS WINTER
STORM MOVES THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. WINTRY MIX OF FZRA, SLEET AND
RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL GO TO
LIFR/VLIFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THERE IS EVEN
SOME THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE WHICH I HAVE BRIEFLY IN FOR SAW. THIS
WINTRY MIX WILL LAST INTO TONIGHT BEFORE A LULL COMES IN FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BE GUSTY AT CMX THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
EAST WINDS 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE LAKE GRADUALLY BACK NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH THE WEST HALF INCREASING TO GALES TO 35-
40 KTS. NORTHEAST WINDS SETTLE BACK TO 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE LAKE
SATURDAY MORNING, HOLDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO END THE
GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AT 8 AM EDT SATURDAY; SOME
CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD PERIODIC GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING
THE LULL PERIOD (40-70% CHANCE) OVER THE FAR WEST. THEN ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT, CROSSING
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN AN
UPTICK IN WINDS AGAIN WITH GALES TO 35 KTS OVER THE WEST HALF ON
SUNDAY. WINDS BACK NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT, DIMINISHING TO 20-30 KTS
ACROSS THE LAKE. A SECOND GALE WARNING WAS ADDED TO THE OTHER
WESTERN ZONES AT 5 AM EDT SUNDAY. WINDS FURTHER SETTLE BELOW 20 KTS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD UP TO 10-14 FT OVER THE WEST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WAVES SETTLE ON SATURDAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN UP TO
AROUND 10 FT ON SUNDAY, EXPANDING HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK NORTH. BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS, PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ALSO PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER THE EAST.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 20-30 KTS IS EXPECTED MID
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF GALES TO 35 KTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
AROUND 40-70%, HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
MIZ002-009.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ004>007-013-014-
085.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR
MIZ010>012.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ084.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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