404
FXUS63 KMQT 290729
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
329 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO ROUNDS OF IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD SLEET,
SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- FREEZING RAIN WILL BE HEAVIEST FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, RANGING FROM A LIGHT GLAZE (FAR WESTERN UP)
TO 0.25-0.50IN (KEWEENAW, CENTRAL, AND EASTERN UP).
- AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION SATURDAY, A ROUND
OF WET, HEAVY SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX WITH SLEET, FREEZING
RAIN, AND RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION.
- NORTHEAST GALES OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAKENING
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE, AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THROUGH TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OVER THOSE AREAS. THE UP REMAINS ON
THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY, BUT A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT
IS ANALYZED ALOFT. LIGHT TO MODERATE MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, STEADIEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UP AT THIS TIME. A PROMINENT WARM NOSE IS PRESENT
BELOW 10KFT, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS 4C
IN THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL UP, COOLER THE MORE NORTHWARD YOU GO. THIS
WOULD CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN/FREEZING RAIN IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN UP, SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
UP, AND SNOW/SLEET IN THE FAR NORTHERN UP AND THE KEWEENAW. THAT
SAID, REPORTS OVER THE PAST EVENING INDICATED SLEET MIXING IN WHERE
WE HAD BEEN EXPECTING MAINLY FREEZING RAIN. AND, FOR WHAT IT'S
WORTH, ASOS SITES IN THE SOUTHERN UP DO CONTINUE TO REPORT SNOW AT
TIMES THIS MORNING. SO, WILL GO FOR A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIX
INSTEAD OF STRAIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THIS WOULD YIELD WIDESPREAD LIGHT
ICE AMOUNTS BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE UP, WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS FLIRTING WITH A TENTH OF AN INCH IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL.
TODAY, AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT PULLS AWAY AND DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR
BRIEFLY SPILLS IN FROM HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLED OUT OVER NORTHERN
CANADA, PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNRISE. STILL,
WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP OVER THE HIGHLANDS OF
THE NORTH-CENTRAL UP COURTESY OF NORTHEASTERN UPSLOPE FLOW.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW, FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE, AND SLEET WITH THIS.
ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT, NUISANCE AT MOST WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED,
HOWEVER. DEEP LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
HEADS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST TONIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION CREEPING
NORTHWARD INTO THE UP AGAIN TOWARDS 00Z. HEAVY SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MORE
DETAILS ON THAT BELOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
THE FIRST ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP WILL BE COMING TO AN END SAT
MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT FLATTENS AND THE E DEPARTING SFC LOW
WEAKENS. NE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY SUPPORT SOME -SN/DZ/FZDZ OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE W, PROLONGING SLICK TRAVELING CONDITIONS. THE BEST
AREA FOR A FEW HUNDRETHS OF QPF WOULD BE IN THE N CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
OUTSIDE THOSE REGIONS, A LULL IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE DAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE ROCKIES.
A CO LOW DEVELOPS ON SAT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS PAIR LIFTS NE TO WI BY SUN MORNING, CONTINUING OVER
LOWER MI AND LAKE HURON THROUGH MON MORNING. SINCE THE BEST FORCING
PASSES ALONG A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE, A SPREAD OF ALL WINTRY MIX
IMPACTS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SECOND ROUND ACROSS THE UP. THERE
STILL IS SOME SPREAD ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SN AXIS AND AREA OF -PL/
FZRA IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER THE UP DUE TO SFC TRACK SPREAD. THIS
IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT 12/24 HRS AS THE RESPONSIBLE
SHORTWAVE HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER S CA THIS MORNING AND THE SAMPLING
OF THIS ENERGY WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE. ENSEMBLES HAVE KEYED
IN ON THE FAR W AND N CENTRAL HIGH LANDS FOR THE HIGHER SNOW
AMOUNTS...POTENTIALLY NEEDING UPGRADES FROM CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES IN THE FAR W CORNER OF THE UP. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
6"/24HR ARE 30-60%, HIGHEST IN THE KEWEENAW. PROBABILITIES FOR AT
LEAST 0.25" OF ICE ARE HIGHEST OVER THE CENTRAL UP (40-55%), BUT 10-
25% SPANS MUCH OF THE UP. GIVEN THE WET, HEAVY SNOW (SLRS GENERALLY
<10:1) AND POTENTIAL ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS, TRAVEL HAZARDS
ARE LIKELY AND POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN.
OPTED TO ADD IRON, DICKINSON, AND MENOMINEE TO AN ICE STORM WARNING
8 PM SAT THROUGH 8 PM SUN.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPS AND A
N STREAM TROUGH PIVOTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LOOK TO SUPPORT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF -LES SHOWERS OVER THE N WIND SNOW BELTS INTO MON
AFTERNOON. FROM THERE, HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING SE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND DECREASING CYCLONIC FLOW SHIFTS DRIER AIR IN FROM THE W
AND BRINGS BACK DRY WEATHER TO THE UP.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES MID NEXT WEEK, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY MIX
TO THE UP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED FOR DURATION OF TAF PERIOD AS WINTER
STORM MOVES THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. WINTRY MIX OF FZRA AND SLEET
WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL BE LIFR/VLIFR AT ALL
SITES THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD. THIS WINTRY MIX WILL LAST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE A LULL COMES IN FOR SATURDAY MORNING. WILL BE GUSTY
AT CMX THROUGH THE PERIOD. MIXED PCPN WILL SWITCH OVER TO ALL SNOW,
FIRST AT CMX SAT AFTERNOON AND IN THE EVENING AT IWD AND SAW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
EAST WINDS 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE LAKE GRADUALLY BACK NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH THE WEST HALF INCREASING TO GALES TO 35-
40 KTS. NORTHEAST WINDS SETTLE BACK TO 20-30 KTS ACROSS THE LAKE
SATURDAY MORNING, HOLDING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. OPTED TO END THE
GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL EXCEPT THE FAR WEST AT 8 AM EDT SATURDAY; SOME
CONVERGENCE COULD YIELD PERIODIC GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35 KTS DURING
THE LULL PERIOD (40-70% CHANCE) OVER THE FAR WEST. THEN ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT, CROSSING
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS RESULTS IN AN
UPTICK IN WINDS AGAIN WITH GALES TO 35 KTS OVER THE WEST HALF ON
SUNDAY. WINDS BACK NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT, DIMINISHING TO 20-30 KTS
ACROSS THE LAKE. A SECOND GALE WARNING WAS ADDED TO THE OTHER
WESTERN ZONES AT 5 AM EDT SUNDAY. WINDS FURTHER SETTLE BELOW 20 KTS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE
NORTHWEST.
EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD UP TO 10-14 FT OVER THE WEST TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. WAVES SETTLE ON SATURDAY THEN INCREASE AGAIN UP TO
AROUND 10 FT ON SUNDAY, EXPANDING HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BACK NORTH. BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS, PERIODS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. ALSO PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER THE EAST.
THE NEXT PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 20-30 KTS IS EXPECTED MID
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES.
CURRENT PROBABILITIES OF GALES TO 35 KTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
AROUND 40-70%, HIGHEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
MIZ002-009-084.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ004>007-013-014-
085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ010>012.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR MIZ010>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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