055
FXUS63 KMQT 292023
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
423 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN WINTRY PRECIP TODAY, OUR NEXT ROUND OF
WINTRY WEATHER RETURNS THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SLEET,
SNOW, AND FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, AN IMPACTFUL WINTER SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH THE UP, WITH FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND HEAVY
SNOW EXPECTED. ICE STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT. TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT AND POWER
OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
COULD ALSO BRING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
UPPER MICHIGAN IS CURRENTLY IN A BIT OF A LULL BETWEEN DISTURBANCES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST WITH IMPENDING WAA CREATING A
TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO NORTHEAST WI AND SOUTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTY, WHICH MATCHES CAMS TRENDS. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW, THOUGH, DOESN'T REALLY START OVERSPREADING
SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL SUN 00Z. AT THAT POINT, THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL HAVE DEEPENED AND MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF MISSOURI. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE WAA HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A
PLETHORA OF PTYPES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BUT THE 12Z HREF FRAM
KEEPS THE SWATH OF HIGHEST TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE UP WITH AS HIGH AS 0.50" OF
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE DICKINSON, MENOMINEE, DELTA SECTOR. AS A
RESULT, THE ICE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL,
EASTERN, AND NORTH-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. MARQUETTE AND ALGER
COUNTIES WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN REMOVED FROM THE ICE WARNING DUE TO
A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TRACK, BUT OPTED NOT TO DUE TO IMPACTFUL ICE
ACCUMULATION STILL ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THOSE
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN, SLEET COULD MIX IN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FREEZING RAIN BAND ALONG WITH WET SNOW. AND, THERMAL
PROFILES/OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SUPPORT SNOW TOTALS IN THE 8-12"
RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
PRIMARY FEATURES OF NOTE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE A COLORADO
LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE UP ON SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER MESS
OF PRECIPITATION TYPES ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME TRAILING LES AND
THEN ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
LATE WEDNESDAY, WHERE SPREAD IS STILL HIGH BUT A NUMBER OF WEATHER
HAZARDS REMAIN IN PLAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN GROWS INTO THE LATE WEEK
AND BEYOND, BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO FAVOR HIGH PRESSURE INTERRUPTED
BY WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
FIRST UP IS THE COLORADO LOW TO END THE WEEKEND. BY 06Z SUNDAY,
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS GOOD THAT THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 990S MB AROUND IOWA AND DEEPENING SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI AND BEYOND. THIS DEEPENING OF THE
LOW IS THANKS TO THE PARENT 500MB TROUGH MAINTAINING A NEUTRAL TO
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THE CONFLUENCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE WITH A DEEPER, LONGER WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE HUDSON BAY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL ALSO PROVIDE SOME
EXTRA VORTICITY LATE IN THE EVENT. DECENT BUT NOT EXTREME SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SOME GULF CONNECTION WITH THE NAEFS
SHOWING VAPOR TRANSPORT AT 06Z SUNDAY AROUND THE 90TH PERCENT OF
CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE WARM ADVECTION THAT WILL PROVIDE
LIFT FOR PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN SPREADING ACROSS THE UP AS SOON AS
00Z SUNDAY BUT WILL ALSO BOOST THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES TO GIVE
SOUNDING PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ALL PRECIP TYPES. THE 00Z HREF FRAM
PROBABILITIES OF 0.25" OF FZRA PER 6 HOURS RANGES FROM 20-40% FOR
MENOMINEE, DICKINSON, DELTA, SCHOOLCRAFT, AND SOUTHERN LUCE
COUNTIES ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF THOSE PROBABILITIES
IN THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF IRON, MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES.
MEAN 24- HOURLY FRAM ICE ACCUMULATION BY 00Z MONDAY IS AROUND
THE 0.25" MARK FOR THE IRON RIVER TO CRYSTAL FALLS AREA AS WELL
AS SOUTHERN MARQUETTE COUNTY, SO WILL ELECT TO LEAVE IRON AND
MARQUETTE COUNTIES IN THE ICE STORM WARNING FOR NOW. BARAGA
COUNTY COULD BE A COUNTY TO CONSIDER DROPPING FROM THE WARNING
AS THE HREF FRAM GIVES VIRTUALLY 0 CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING EVEN
0.1" OF FREEZING RAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY. MARQUETTE
AND IRON COUNTIES ARE ONLY HANGING ON TO THE WARNINGS DUE TO
IMPACTS TO COMMUNITIES IN THE SOUTHERN EXTENTS OF SAID COUNTIES
AND WORDING IN THE WARNINGS WILL REFLECT THAT FORECAST.
SOUNDINGS ESPECIALLY OVER MARQUETTE SHOW THAT SLEET WILL ALSO BE
EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FREEZING RAIN BAND WITH A
TRANSITION TO A BAND OF WET SNOW OVER THE WESTERN UP.
CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING IN COOL NEAR-SURFACE FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY IN ALL-
SNOW PROFILES, WITH THE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT BEING ENOUGH FOR
THE CAMS TO SUPPORT UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW FROM THE
MARQUETTE/ISHPEMING SECTION OF THE US-41 CORRIDOR TO THE HURON
MOUNTAINS. IF IT WAS NOT FOR THE ICE STORM WARNING BEING A
HIGHER-PRIORITY PRODUCT, MARQUETTE COUNTY WOULD ABSOLUTELY BE IN
A WINTER STORM WARNING, BUT FOR NOW, WILL KEEP THE ICE STORM
WARNING UP. SHOULD THE CAMS RETREAT THE FREEZING RAIN TOTALS
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH, THE ICE STORM WARNING COULD BE REPLACED BY A
WINTER STORM WARNING DURING A PROCEEDING SHIFT. FOR NOW THOUGH,
THE UPWARDS TREND IN SNOWFALL ACROSS THE WEST WILL SUPPORT ALL
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO BE UPGRADED TO WINTER STORM
WARNINGS FOR SUNDAY. ADDING TO THE MULTIPLE HAZARDS FROM THE
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS THE WIND THREAT, WITH THE EURO
ENSEMBLE SHOWING 40-50% CHANCES OF SHORELINE LOCATIONS OF THE
UP EXCEEDING 40 MPH GUSTS. IN ADDITION TO TRAVEL HAZARDS THAT
ALMOST GO WITHOUT SAYING, GUSTY WINDS WITH A SPECTRUM OF
PRECIPITATION RANGING FROM WET SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AND
EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN WILL LEAD TO SOME THREATS OF POWER OUTAGES
AND TREE DAMAGE. THE EFI CONCURS THAT THIS COULD BE A HIGH-
IMPACT EVENT, AS THE EFI VALUES FOR SNOWFALL ARE UP TO 0.9 WITH
SHIFT OF TAILS OF NEAR 2 FOR THE WESTERN UP
WITH THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTING TO QUEBEC BY 12Z MONDAY, 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -13C OVER AN OPEN LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS
AROUND 2C WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE INTENSITY AND DURATION OF SUCH SHOWERS IS UNCERTAIN AS
DESPITE THE LINGERING TROUGHING ALOFT PROVIDING CYCLONIC FLOW AND
SYNOPTIC LIFT SUPPORT, ENCROACHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BRINGS SUBSIDING DRY AIR TO THE UP BY 09Z TUESDAY, LEAVING SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW TOTALS THAT SHOULD BE RESOLVED IN UPCOMING
CAM RUNS THAT CAPTURE THE SNOW BANDS BEST. FOR NOW, EXPECTING AN
ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NOON MONDAY,
HIGHEST IN UPSLOPING TERRAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW FROM MARQUETTE
WESTWARD.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE HIGH PRESSURE (GEFS MEAN OF NEAR 1030MB
OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO 12Z TUESDAY) WILL GIVE SOME PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SUN AND
HIGHS IN THE 30S.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM WHERE A 500MB TROUGH ACQUIRES A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY,
SUPPORTING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WITH A STRONG CONTINGENT OF GEFS
MEMBERS SHOWING 980S MB CENTERS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO HAVE JET SUPPORT
AS JET LEVEL CHARTS SHOW THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A ~115KT JET OVER
THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY. SPREAD ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS STILL
HIGH WITH THE GEFS SHOWING AT 06Z THURSDAY LOWS SPREAD FROM GEORGIAN
BAY TO MINNESOTA. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO THIS ONGOING WINTER EVENT, A
STRONG GULF CONNECTION HAS NAEFS IVT VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY AND 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK FOLLOWING WARM ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONCE
AGAIN, THIS COULD BE A MESS OF PRECIP TYPES, THOUGH WITH EVEN THE
75TH PERCENTILE OF THE GEFS/GEPS SHOWING NO FREEZING RAIN, NOT MUCH
IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 90TH
TO 99TH PERCENTILES SHOW AT LEAST ADVISORY-LEVEL FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL, SO THE FORECAST BEARS MONITORING. FOR NOW THOUGH, THIS
FORECAST WILL REFLECT A RAIN-SNOW MIX FOR THE MOST PART. THIS COULD
ALSO BE A GUSTY PERIOD, WITH THE EFI SHOWING VALUES OVER 0.7 AND
SHIFT OF TAILS OVER 0. FOR NOW, THAT LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH WIDESPREAD BUT COULD (20% CHANCE) CRACK WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR THE KEWEENAW PER THE EURO ENSEMBLE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE OVER THE
REGION, BUT SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. MEAN 500MB HEIGHT CHARTS SHOW GENERAL FAVORABILITY TOWARDS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER
THE ROCKIES. SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS STRUGGLE TO COALESCE
AROUND ANY CONSISTENT FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, BUT
THE PATTERN DOES SEEM TO FAVOR WEAKER SYSTEMS, PERHAPS ALONG THE
THREAD OF ALBERTA CLIPPERS, THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD THAT
STRONGER SYSTEMS CANNOT ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT. THE CPC OUTLOOKS
INTO THE EARLY-MID APRIL PERIOD ALSO SHOW THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH
EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR, ABOVE, AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIP FOR 6-10 DAYS, 8-14 DAYS, AND WEEKS 3-4. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
LOOKS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL AS
12Z LREF PROBABILITIES OF 850MB TEMPERATURES BELOW -11C BEING
SUB-30% UNTIL AT LEAST APRIL 7TH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS WELL. NO IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE LULL BETWEEN SYSTEMS, AND THE NEXT
ROUND WILL ENTER THE TAF SITES AFTER SUN 00Z. IF ANYTHING, THERE
COULD BE PERIODS OF VLIFR MIXED IN AT TIMES DUE TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. PTYPE WITH NEXT ROUND WILL
BE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ONCE AGAIN WITH THE
HEAVIEST AFTER SUN 03Z. IN ADDITION, NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND CMX.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 433 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-30 KTS REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE THIS MORNING
EXCEPT FOR THE VICINITY OF DULUTH HARBOR, WHERE GALES TO 35 KNOTS
REMAIN. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT, CROSSING NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
RESULTS IN AN UPTICK IN WINDS AGAIN WITH GALES TO 35 KTS OVER THE
WEST HALF ON SUNDAY. WINDS BACK NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT, DIMINISHING TO
20-30 KTS ACROSS THE LAKE. WINDS FURTHER SETTLE BELOW 20 KTS FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE BY MONDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WAVES OF 8-10 FT CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE WEST, SPREADING TO THE EAST SUNDAY, BRIEFLY PEAKING
NEAR 12 FT NORTH OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE
FALLING BELOW 8 FT LATE MONDAY AND BELOW 4 FT LAKEWIDE TUESDAY
MORNING. THE NEXT GALES ARE EXPECTED (OVER 75 PERCENT CHANCE) WITH
ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO AGREE ON EXACT TRACK AND
INTENSITY DETAILS, BUT IN GENERAL, EXPECTING NEAR 40 KT GALES WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH AROUND 30% CHANCES OF STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KT.
GUSTS SETTLE BELOW GALES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM PASSES
AND WINDS FALL BELOW 20 KT LATE THURSDAY.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING TO
8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR MIZ002-004-009-084.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ005>007-013-014-
085.
ICE STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR MIZ010>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...GS
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