558
FXUS63 KMQT 292334
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
734 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, AN IMPACTFUL WINTER SYSTEM
WILL PASS THROUGH THE UP, WITH FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND HEAVY
SNOW EXPECTED. ICE STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS
ARE IN EFFECT. TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT AND POWER
OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
COULD ALSO BRING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. ALTHOUGH EXACT
ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SOME MINOR IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 423 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
UPPER MICHIGAN IS CURRENTLY IN A BIT OF A LULL BETWEEN DISTURBANCES
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS.
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE EXTENDING FROM NEBRASKA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MIDWEST WITH IMPENDING WAA CREATING A
TRICKY PTYPE FORECAST. LATEST RADAR MOSAIC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING
REFLECTIVITY RETURNS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO NORTHEAST WI AND SOUTHERN
MENOMINEE COUNTY, WHICH MATCHES CAMS TRENDS. BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW, THOUGH, DOESN'T REALLY START OVERSPREADING
SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN UNTIL SUN 00Z. AT THAT POINT, THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL HAVE DEEPENED AND MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST
CORNER OF MISSOURI. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE WAA HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A
PLETHORA OF PTYPES IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS, BUT THE 12Z HREF FRAM
KEEPS THE SWATH OF HIGHEST TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE UP WITH AS HIGH AS 0.50" OF
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE DICKINSON, MENOMINEE, DELTA SECTOR. AS A
RESULT, THE ICE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL,
EASTERN, AND NORTH-CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. MARQUETTE AND ALGER
COUNTIES WOULD HAVE LIKELY BEEN REMOVED FROM THE ICE WARNING DUE TO
A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE TRACK, BUT OPTED NOT TO DUE TO IMPACTFUL ICE
ACCUMULATION STILL ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THOSE
COUNTIES. IN ADDITION TO THE FREEZING RAIN, SLEET COULD MIX IN NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FREEZING RAIN BAND ALONG WITH WET SNOW. AND, THERMAL
PROFILES/OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SUPPORT SNOW TOTALS IN THE 8-12"
RANGE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE COUNTY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER WI WITH THE SFC LOW
JUST OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER LAKE MI/NW LOWER MI. THERE STILL IS A BIT
OF SPREAD ON THE SFC LOW POSITION AT THAT POINT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN P-TYPES AND ANTICIPATED IMPACTS IS GOOD. THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY SUN NIGHT WILL BE SHIFT SE
OUT OF THE CWA LATE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE AT
800-700MB WILL COOL DOWN AT THE SAME TIME. THE LINGERING WINTRY MIX
OF FZRA/PL WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY 6Z, LEAVING ONLY SN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SYSTEM. WAA CONTINUES SYSTEM SN INTO MON MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BETTER F-GEN SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE CWA, SO ADDITIONAL
QPF DROPS OFF QUICKLY INTO MON. 850MB TEMPS WILL ONLY BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL LES SHOWERS BY MON AFTERNOON WHEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS LACK MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. SOME LAKE/N
UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MON MORNING, OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING SE INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN A WET SLR OF 10:1 OR LESS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 0.5" TO 3", HIGHEST IN THE TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY. WITH THE MARGINAL 850MB TEMPS AND A N STREAM TROUGH PIVOTING
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/N UP, ISOLATED CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE N
CONTINUE. LOWS SUN NIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S, WARMEST S CENTRAL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1030MB BECOMES CENTERED OVER N ONTARIO MON
NIGHT INTO TUE, EXTENDING RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10MPH.
WITH THE NAEFS MEAN PWATS BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE
OVERNIGHT ALONGSIDE SUBSIDENCE, RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD YIELD THE
COLDEST NIGHT IN THE EXTENDED FCST WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INTERIOR W WITH INTERIOR E NEAR 10F AND TEENS BY THE GREAT LAKES/IN
THE KEWEENAW. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH TUE WITH HIGHS 30-40F, WARMEST W.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES ON
TUE. THIS PUSHES OUT OVER THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED. AT THE SFC, A CO LOW DEVELOPS QUICKLY TUE
NIGHT, LIKELY TRACKING NE OVER UPPER MI WED NIGHT. SUFFICIENT GULF
MOISTURE SURGES OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO THE REGION, HOWEVER THE
QUICK NATURE OF THE LOW LOOKS TO HELP LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KICK
OFF PRECIP TUE NIGHT FROM THE SW, QUICKLY EXPANDING NE ACROSS THE
CWA INTO WED. P-TYPE LIKELY STARTS OFF AS SN, BUT -FZRA BEGINS TO
MIX IN ON WED AS A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800-700MB DEVELOPS ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY RA WITH SFC TEMPS ECLIPSING FREEZING AND GROUND TEMPS
WARMING UP DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS TOO
SIGNIFICANT TO BE CONFIDENT ON AMOUNTS, BUT SOME MINOR IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN NBM PROBABILITIES OF 3" OF SNOW IN 24HR ARE BETWEEN
45-75% OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA WITH 30-60% CHANCES FOR 6" IN THE
KEWEENAW. FOR -FZRA, THERE IS ~15% CHANCE FOR 0.10" OF ICE IN THE
INTERIOR WITH WIDESPREAD 10-20% CHANCES FOR AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS IMPACTS COULD AFFECT THE WED
AM/PM AS WELL AS THU AM COMMUTES.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THU NIGHT, BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW/W
CANADA SENDING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 734 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD AS WELL. IF ANYTHING, THERE COULD BE
PERIODS OF VLIFR MIXED IN AT TIMES DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
WITH ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. PTYPE WITH NEXT ROUND WILL BE A WINTRY
MIX OF SLEET/SNOW AGAIN AT SAW AND ALL SNOW AT CMX AND IWD. IN
ADDITION, NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND CMX.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
NORTHEAST 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 35 KT
GALES IN THE VICINITY OF DULUTH HARBOR INCREASE TO 35-40 KT GALES
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE BY SUN MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN
GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WEAKEN TO 20-30 KTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THEY BACK NORTH. WINDS
FURTHER SETTLE BELOW 20 KTS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WAVES OF 6-
10 FT CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE WEST, SPREADING TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. WAVES SETTLE BELOW 4 FT IN THE WEST HALF BY MONDAY
EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH A BIT OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KTS ON TUE, FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-
30 KTS BY WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES AND
LIFTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS WIDESPREAD
PROBABILITIES BETWEEN 40-60% FOR GALES OF 35 KTS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO AGREE ON EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY DETAILS, BUT THERE IS A BRIEF 20% CHANCE FOR STORM
FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KTS. GALES LOOK TO DROP DOWN TO 20-30 KT WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD AND WINDS LIKELY FALL
BELOW 20 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ001-003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR
MIZ002-004-009-084.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ005>007-013-014-
085.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ010>012.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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