601
FXUS63 KMQT 300718
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
318 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN IMPACTFUL WINTER SYSTEM CONTINUES THROUGH THE UP TODAY, WITH
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. ICE STORM WARNINGS
AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. EXPECT VERY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES.
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY COULD
ALSO BRING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. ALTHOUGH EXACT
ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SOME MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE (CURRENTLY OVER
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING) CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BEFORE GOING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC THIS
EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, IMPRESSIVE ASCENT IN ALL THE LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BRINGS SOME HEAVY, WET SNOWFALL TO THE FAR WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT FLIRTING ALONG
AND WARMING UP ABOVE FREEZING FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY, EXPECT SLRS
TO BE FAIRLY LOW, AROUND 5:1 IN THE NORTH CENTRAL UP TO AROUND 10:1
IN THE KEWEENAW. WITH WARM AIR FROM THE GULF SNEAKING INTO THE MID
TO LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE BIT BETTER FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, EXPECT A MIX OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN (MAINLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN) OUTSIDE OF THE FAR WEST, KEWEENAW, AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. WHILE THE SLEET WILL
HELP REDUCE SNOW TOTALS AND THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING RAIN, EVEN AN
INCH OR TWO OF THE STUFF COULD BE VERY IMPACTFUL ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AS IT IS HARDER TO DRIVE IN WHEN COMPARED TO WET SNOWFALL.
AS FOR THE FREEZING RAIN, WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
WE COULD SEE HALF INCH OR MORE OF ICE FALL, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCUMULATIONS (LOOKING AT YOU MENOMINEE
AND ESCANABA), AREAS FURTHER INLAND COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERALL, WE COULD STILL SEE 5 TO 11 INCHES OF WET SNOWFALL FALL OVER
THE FAR WEST, KEWEENAW, AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH OVER A FOOT STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION,
WE COULD SEE A QUARTER TO OVER HALF AN INCH OF ICE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST, WITH THE HIGHER ICE TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE EAST
AND LOWEST ALONG GREEN BAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE AN AREA FROM
WATERSMEET TO CRYSTAL FALLS ALL THE WAY THROUGH GWINN TO MUNISING
COULD SEE A MIX OF ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES THE REST OF TODAY; THUS,
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SLEET AND A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW COULD
FALL IN THIS AREA, IN ADDITION TO SOME ICE BETWEEN A TRACE AND A
QUARTER INCH. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM IS A MESS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL HAZARDS AS WELL AS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN.
ONCE THE COLDER AIR OF THE LOW STARTS WRAPPING INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE DRIER, POLAR AIR CUTS THE SNOW
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SAVE FOR MAYBE
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL EVEN INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE WE COULD GET A FEW MORE INCHES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
EARLY IN THE EVENING THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALMOST ALL WRAPPED UP BY THE TIME
DAWN COMES MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER WI WITH THE SFC LOW
JUST OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER LAKE MI/NW LOWER MI. THERE STILL IS A BIT
OF SPREAD ON THE SFC LOW POSITION AT THAT POINT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN P-TYPES AND ANTICIPATED IMPACTS IS GOOD. THE TIGHT BAROCLINIC
ZONE OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI EARLY SUN NIGHT WILL BE SHIFT SE
OUT OF THE CWA LATE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE WARM NOSE AT
800-700MB WILL COOL DOWN AT THE SAME TIME. THE LINGERING WINTRY MIX
OF FZRA/PL WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CWA BY 6Z, LEAVING ONLY SN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SYSTEM. WAA CONTINUES SYSTEM SN INTO MON MORNING,
HOWEVER THE BETTER F-GEN SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE CWA, SO ADDITIONAL
QPF DROPS OFF QUICKLY INTO MON. 850MB TEMPS WILL ONLY BECOME COLD
ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL LES SHOWERS BY MON AFTERNOON WHEN MODEL
SOUNDINGS LACK MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS. SOME LAKE/N
UPSLOPE ENHANCED SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MON MORNING, OTHERWISE DRY
WEATHER RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE DESCENDING SE INTO THE REGION.
GIVEN A WET SLR OF 10:1 OR LESS ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN 0.5" TO 3", HIGHEST IN THE TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE
COUNTY. WITH THE MARGINAL 850MB TEMPS AND A N STREAM TROUGH PIVOTING
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/N UP, ISOLATED CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE N
CONTINUE. LOWS SUN NIGHT ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S.
TEMPS PEAK IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S, WARMEST S CENTRAL.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1030MB BECOMES CENTERED OVER N ONTARIO MON
NIGHT INTO TUE, EXTENDING RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10MPH.
WITH THE NAEFS MEAN PWATS BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE
OVERNIGHT ALONGSIDE SUBSIDENCE, RADIATIVE COOLING SHOULD YIELD THE
COLDEST NIGHT IN THE EXTENDED FCST WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
INTERIOR W WITH INTERIOR E NEAR 10F AND TEENS BY THE GREAT LAKES/IN
THE KEWEENAW. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH TUE WITH HIGHS 30-40F, WARMEST W.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES ON
TUE. THIS PUSHES OUT OVER THE PLAINS TUE NIGHT AND LIFTS NE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED. AT THE SFC, A CO LOW DEVELOPS QUICKLY TUE
NIGHT, LIKELY TRACKING NE OVER UPPER MI WED NIGHT. SUFFICIENT GULF
MOISTURE SURGES OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW INTO THE REGION, HOWEVER THE
QUICK NATURE OF THE LOW LOOKS TO HELP LIMIT SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KICK
OFF PRECIP TUE NIGHT FROM THE SW, QUICKLY EXPANDING NE ACROSS THE
CWA INTO WED. P-TYPE LIKELY STARTS OFF AS SN, BUT -FZRA BEGINS TO
MIX IN ON WED AS A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800-700MB DEVELOPS ALOFT AND
EVENTUALLY RA WITH SFC TEMPS ECLIPSING FREEZING AND GROUND TEMPS
WARMING UP DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS TOO
SIGNIFICANT TO BE CONFIDENT ON AMOUNTS, BUT SOME MINOR IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN NBM PROBABILITIES OF 3" OF SNOW IN 24HR ARE BETWEEN
45-75% OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA WITH 30-60% CHANCES FOR 6" IN THE
KEWEENAW. FOR -FZRA, THERE IS ~15% CHANCE FOR 0.10" OF ICE IN THE
INTERIOR WITH WIDESPREAD 10-20% CHANCES FOR AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS IMPACTS COULD AFFECT THE WED
AM/PM AS WELL AS THU AM COMMUTES.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THU NIGHT, BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC NW/W
CANADA SENDING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD. IF ANYTHING, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
VLIFR MIXED IN AT TIMES DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
PRECIPITATION. PTYPE WITH THIS ROUND WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET/SNOW AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AT SAW AND ALL SNOW AT CMX AND
IWD. IN ADDITION, NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND CMX. MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW LATER SUN EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 424 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
NORTHEAST 20-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON WITH 35 KT
GALES IN THE VICINITY OF DULUTH HARBOR INCREASE TO 35-40 KT GALES
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE LAKE BY SUN MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN
GALES GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WEAKEN TO 20-30 KTS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THEY BACK NORTH. WINDS
FURTHER SETTLE BELOW 20 KTS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE LAKE BY
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE NORTHWEST. WAVES OF 6-
10 FT CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE WEST, SPREADING TO THE
EAST ON SUNDAY. WAVES SETTLE BELOW 4 FT IN THE WEST HALF BY MONDAY
EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE EAST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS TO BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH A BIT OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN WATERS ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KTS ON TUE, FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-
30 KTS BY WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES AND
LIFTS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS YIELDS WIDESPREAD
PROBABILITIES BETWEEN 40-60% FOR GALES OF 35 KTS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING TO AGREE ON EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY DETAILS, BUT THERE IS A BRIEF 20% CHANCE FOR STORM
FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KTS. GALES LOOK TO DROP DOWN TO 20-30 KT WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS OVERHEAD AND WINDS LIKELY FALL
BELOW 20 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ001>004-009-084.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ005>007-010>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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