093
FXUS63 KMQT 300809
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
409 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN IMPACTFUL WINTER SYSTEM CONTINUES THROUGH THE UP TODAY, WITH
FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED. ICE STORM WARNINGS
AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. EXPECT VERY DIFFICULT
TRAVEL AND POWER OUTAGES.
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY COULD
ALSO BRING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES. ALTHOUGH EXACT
ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SOME MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THE REST OF
TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS THE RESPONSIBLE LOW PRESSURE (CURRENTLY OVER
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING) CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES BEFORE GOING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF MACKINAC THIS
EVENING. AS THIS OCCURS, IMPRESSIVE ASCENT IN ALL THE LAYERS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE BRINGS SOME HEAVY, WET SNOWFALL TO THE FAR WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL U.P. THIS MORNING. WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT FLIRTING ALONG
AND WARMING UP ABOVE FREEZING FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY, EXPECT SLRS
TO BE FAIRLY LOW, AROUND 5:1 IN THE NORTH CENTRAL UP TO AROUND 10:1
IN THE KEWEENAW. WITH WARM AIR FROM THE GULF SNEAKING INTO THE MID
TO LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE A LITTLE BIT BETTER FURTHER SOUTH
AND EAST, EXPECT A MIX OF SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND RAIN (MAINLY
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN) OUTSIDE OF THE FAR WEST, KEWEENAW, AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL TODAY. WHILE THE SLEET WILL
HELP REDUCE SNOW TOTALS AND THE IMPACT OF THE FREEZING RAIN, EVEN AN
INCH OR TWO OF THE STUFF COULD BE VERY IMPACTFUL ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN AS IT IS HARDER TO DRIVE IN WHEN COMPARED TO WET SNOWFALL.
AS FOR THE FREEZING RAIN, WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
FRONTOGENESIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS,
WE COULD SEE HALF INCH OR MORE OF ICE FALL, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST. WHILE TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE TOO
WARM FOR MUCH, IF ANY, ICE ACCUMULATIONS (LOOKING AT YOU MENOMINEE
AND ESCANABA), AREAS FURTHER INLAND COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN CONTINUE
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERALL, WE COULD STILL SEE 5 TO 11 INCHES OF WET SNOWFALL FALL OVER
THE FAR WEST, KEWEENAW, AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH OVER A FOOT STILL POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND BARAGA COUNTIES. IN ADDITION,
WE COULD SEE A QUARTER TO OVER HALF AN INCH OF ICE IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST, WITH THE HIGHER ICE TOTALS MOST LIKELY IN THE EAST
AND LOWEST ALONG GREEN BAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE AN AREA FROM
WATERSMEET TO CRYSTAL FALLS ALL THE WAY THROUGH GWINN TO MUNISING
COULD SEE A MIX OF ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES THE REST OF TODAY; THUS,
A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SLEET AND A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW COULD
FALL IN THIS AREA, IN ADDITION TO SOME ICE BETWEEN A TRACE AND A
QUARTER INCH. OVERALL, THIS SYSTEM IS A MESS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL HAZARDS AS WELL AS POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
UPPER MICHIGAN.
ONCE THE COLDER AIR OF THE LOW STARTS WRAPPING INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING, EXPECT THE TRANSITION TO ALL
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE THE DRIER, POLAR AIR CUTS THE SNOW
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SAVE FOR MAYBE
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL EVEN INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WHILE WE COULD GET A FEW MORE INCHES OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL
EARLY IN THE EVENING THANKS TO THE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ALMOST ALL WRAPPED UP BY THE TIME
DAWN COMES MONDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE ONGOING WINTER STORM, THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF
NOTE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE A ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BOOKENDED BY STRONG
SURFACE HIGHS EARLY AND LATE IN THE WEEK. SPREAD IS STILL HIGH ON
THE PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, BUT A NUMBER OF
WEATHER HAZARDS REMAIN IN PLAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN GROWS INTO THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND, BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO FAVOR HIGH PRESSURE
INTERRUPTED BY WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
WITH THE SYSTEM QUICKLY DEPARTING TO QUEBEC BY 12Z MONDAY, UPSLOPING
NORTHERLY FLOW IN JUNCTION WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -13C
OVER AN OPEN LAKE SUPERIOR THAT IS AROUND 2C WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
SOME PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE AND ALGER
COUNTIES, BUT THE PROBABILITIES OF EVEN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL ARE
LOW (15% OR LESS) BEYOND 12Z MONDAY. THE LIMITED INTENSITY AND
DURATION OF SUCH SHOWERS IS DUE TO ENCROACHING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY BRINGING SUBSIDING DRY AIR TO THE UP. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE, WHICH THE GEFS RESOLVES A MEAN OF NEAR 1030MB OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO 12Z TUESDAY, WILL GIVE SOME PLEASANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY,
ALLOWING FOR SOME SUN AND HIGHS IN THE AROUND 30 ON MONDAY AND
INTO THE 30S ON TUESDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND PWAT IN THE BOTTOM 10%
OF CLIMATOLOGY OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS WILL PROVIDE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH LOWS UP TO 33% LIKELY TO FALL TO 0
DEGREES IN THE INTERIOR WEST TUESDAY MORNING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM WHERE A 500MB TROUGH ACQUIRES A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY,
SUPPORTING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WITH A STRONG CONTINGENT OF GEFS
MEMBERS SHOWING 980S MB CENTERS. THIS LOW WILL ALSO HAVE JET SUPPORT
AS JET LEVEL CHARTS SHOW THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A ~115KT JET OVER
THE REGION BY 00Z THURSDAY. SPREAD ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS ONLY
GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS AT 06Z THURSDAY LOWS
SPREAD FROM SE MINNESOTA TO THE STRAITS OF MACKINAW, AND NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO THIS
ONGOING WINTER EVENT, A STRONG GULF CONNECTION HAS NAEFS IVT VALUES
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY (SOME EVEN OVER 97.5TH
PERCENTILE) AND 850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK
FOLLOWING WARM ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONCE AGAIN, THIS
COULD BE A MESS OF PRECIP TYPES, THOUGH WITH EVEN THE 75TH
PERCENTILE OF THE GEFS/GEPS SHOWING NO FREEZING RAIN FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE UP, SO NOT MUCH IS REFLECTED IN THE GRIDS. HOWEVER,
IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE 90TH TO 95TH PERCENTILES SHOW AT LEAST
ADVISORY-LEVEL FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL, SO THE FORECAST BEARS
MONITORING. WITH TEMPERATURES (AND THUS, PTYPE AND SNOW RATIOS) IN
FLUX, DETAILS ABOUT SNOWFALL ARE A BIT FUZZY, BUT THE 12Z LREF MEAN
(ASSUMING 10:1) DOES SHOW ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE
NORTH AND WESTERN UP (WHICH SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO BE IN A COOLER
SECTOR OF THIS LOW). HOWEVER, WITH SUCH RUNS AS THE 18Z GFS SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DRY SLOTTING, PRECIPITATION MEANS ARE
BY NO MEANS A GIVEN FOR SYSTEMS SUCH AS THIS. BEYOND PRECIPITATION,
T HIS COULD ALSO BE A GUSTY PERIOD, WITH THE EFI SHOWING VALUES OVER
0.7 AND SHIFT OF TAILS OVER 0. FOR NOW, THAT LOOKS LIKE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH WIDESPREAD BUT COULD (20% CHANCE) CRACK WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE KEWEENAW PER THE EURO ENSEMBLE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE OVER THE
REGION, WITH 1020S TO 1030S MB HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. MEAN 500MB HEIGHT CHARTS
SHOW GOOD FAVORABILITY TOWARDS NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING
DIGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS STRUGGLE TO
COALESCE AROUND ANY CONSISTENT FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND,
BUT THE PATTERN DOES SEEM TO FAVOR PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
INTERRUPTED BY WEAKER SYSTEMS, MORE OF THE STYLE OF ALBERTA
CLIPPERS, THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD THAT STRONGER SYSTEMS CANNOT
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT. THE CPC OUTLOOKS INTO THE EARLY-MID APRIL
PERIOD ALSO SHOW THIS UNCERTAINTY WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF NEAR, ABOVE,
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIP FOR 6-10 DAYS, 8-14 DAYS,
AND WEEKS 3-4. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY FOR THE MOST PART FOR
THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL AS 12Z LREF PROBABILITIES OF 850MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -11C BEING SUB-30% UNTIL AT LEAST APRIL 7TH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
DURATION OF THIS TAF PERIOD. IF ANYTHING, THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
VLIFR MIXED IN AT TIMES DUE TO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH
PRECIPITATION. PTYPE WITH THIS ROUND WILL BE A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET/SNOW AND POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN AT SAW AND ALL SNOW AT CMX AND
IWD. IN ADDITION, NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT IWD AND CMX. MIXED PCPN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
ALL SNOW LATER SUN EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ONGOING NORTHEAST GALES TO 35 KNOTS IN THE VICINITY OF DULUTH HARBOR
SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY IN RESPONSE
TO A LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. GALES END LAKEWIDE
MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY, FALLING BELOW 20 KT IN THE
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. WITH THIS GALE EVENT, WAVES
BUILD TO 8-11 FT LAKEWIDE BY THIS EVENING, LOCALLY UP TO 13 FT
BETWEEN THE APOSTLE ISLANDS AND SAXON HARBOR, WITH WAVES FALLING
BELOW 8 FT LAKEWIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BELOW 4 FT BY EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
WILL BE WEDNESDAY, WITH EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 25 KT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH GALES TO 40 KT EXPECTED (OVER 50% CHANCE) BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE
AROUND 30-40%. WINDS FALL BELOW GALES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WINDS SWING
TO OUT OF THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW, BUT REMAIN WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-
30 KT INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS WIND GUSTS
BELOW 20 KT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS EVENT,
WAVES WILL PEAK WEDNESDAY EVENING AT 8-12 FT, LOCALLY UP TO 15
FT ON THE EAST SIDE OF ISLE ROYALE, FALLING BELOW 8 FT THURSDAY
MORNING AND BELOW 4 FT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ001>004-009-084.
ICE STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ005>007-010>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...GS
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