425
FXUS63 KMQT 302012
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN IMPACTFUL WINTER SYSTEM CONTINUES THROUGH THE UP INTO
TONIGHT WITH A TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. EXPECT VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AND
POWER OUTAGES.
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
COULD ALSO BRING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 25-35 MPH. ALTHOUGH EXACT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, SOME MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
ONGOING SPRING WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY SNOW, CONVERTED ANY REMAINING ICE STORM
WARNINGS TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ALSO EXTENDED WARNINGS THROUGH
MON 06Z ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UP TO MATCH
CURRENT REGIONAL COLLABORATION AND TRENDS. SO FAR, WIDESPREAD 4 TO 6
INCH SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN WITH
SOME OF THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE BIG BAY AND MARQUETTE
AREAS AT 8.7 AND 8.9 INCHES, RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION, MULTIPLE
REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH LIGHT GLAZE HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH
THE HIGHEST COMING FROM THE NORWAY AREA WHERE A QUARTER INCH WAS
MEASURED. BEST MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.P. BY MON 00Z, BUT ADDITIONAL FORCING COULD
IMPACT THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH MON 06Z, THUS THE
EXTENSION OF WARNINGS OVER THOSE AREAS.
LATEST RADAR MOSAIC IS SHOWING ANOTHER SURGE IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS
NORTHEAST WI AND SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN. SOME RESIDUAL FREEZING
RAIN COULD SNEAK INTO MENOMINEE COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BUT,
AS THE WARM NOSE SHIFTS AND THERMAL PROFILES TREND TOWARD A COLDER
AIR COLUMN, THAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW AS WELL. THIS SHOULD BE
THE LAST UPTICK OF ANY HEAVY SNOW, THOUGH, AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL HAZARDS AS WELL AS POWER
OUTAGES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SECOND ROUND OF WINTER
WEATHER WILL BE AROUND 994MB OVER SW QUEBEC MON MORNING, JUST AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER S ONTARIO. A SECOND TROUGH OVER MANITOBA/N
ONTARIO WILL PIVOT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI ON MON AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NE OVER QUEBEC. 850MB TEMPS SETTLE TO BETWEEN -13C TO
-14C, WHICH MAY YIELD SOME -SN SHOWERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ISLE
ROYALE LATE IN THE DAY MON INTO MON NIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD REACH
THE KEWEENAW MON NIGHT, OTHERWISE NO ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MON WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1029MB BECOMES CENTERED OVER N ONTARIO MON
NIGHT INTO TUE, EXTENDING RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS. WITH THE NAEFS
MEAN PWATS BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE OVERNIGHT
ALONGSIDE SUBSIDENCE, RADIATIVE COOLING WILL YIELD THE COLDEST NIGHT
IN THE EXTENDED FCST WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INTERIOR W WITH
INTERIOR E NEAR 10F AND TEENS BY THE GREAT LAKES/IN THE KEWEENAW.
ASIDE FROM THE LOW CHANCE (15% OR LESS) FOR FLURRIES IN THE KEWEENAW
MON NIGHT, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RETURN ON TUE AS HIGHS WARM UP TO 32-40F, WARMEST W.
TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUE PUSHES OUT OVER THE PLAINS TUE
NIGHT AND LIFTS NE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED INTO THU. A CO LOW
DEVELOPS ON TUE, LIKELY TRACKING NE OVER UPPER MI WED NIGHT. NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE STRONG
WITH MEAN SLP NEAR THE 0.5TH PERCENTILE. THE WIND FIELD REFLECTS
THIS STRENGTH WITH 850-700MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-60 KTS LIFTING OVER
THE REGION ON WED. MIXING LOOKS TO YIELD WIDESPREAD GUSTY ESE WINDS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE KEWEENAW DURING THE
DAY. NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (GUSTS TO +45 MPH)
ARE BETWEEN 15-30% IN THE KEWEENAW, COLLOCATED WITH SIMILAR EPS
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS UP TO 58 MPH! GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO MIX DOWN AS HIGH AS THE EPS HINTS
AT, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD.
WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KICK OFF PRECIP TUE
NIGHT FROM THE SW, QUICKLY EXPANDING NE ACROSS THE CWA INTO WED. P-
TYPE LIKELY STARTS OFF AS SN, BUT -FZRA BEGINS TO MIX IN MID MORNING
ON WED AS A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800-700MB DEVELOPS ALOFT. EVENTUALLY,
-RA BECOMES THE DOMINANT P-TYPE WITH SFC TEMPS ECLIPSING FREEZING
AND GROUND TEMPS WARMING UP DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE. THERE STILL
IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON SFC LOW TRACK TO BE CONFIDENT ON
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS, BUT WITH A WET SN AND INCREASING WINDS ON
WED, SOME MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 3" OF
SN IN 24HR LOWERED TO 20-40% OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA WITH ~20%
FOR 6" IN THE KEWEENAW. FOR -FZRA, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
0.10" OF ICE IN THE INTERIOR/KEWEENAW WITH WIDESPREAD 10-25% CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS THE UP. SLIPPERY ROADS FROM
-FZRA/SN COULD IMPACT THE WED COMMUTES. TRAILING -SN IS POSSIBLE ON
THU.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THU NIGHT, BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
RETURN LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC
NW/W CANADA SENDING SHORTWAVES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST MON 06Z DUE TO
WINTER STORM. AFTER THAT, EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY A RETURN TO VFR BY TOMORROW MORNING.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS, EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SNOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
NORTHEAST GALES TO ~35 KTS EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK NORTH TONIGHT, SETTLING BELOW GALES BY LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE SYSTEM TRAVERSING NORTHEAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT
LAKES BASIN. NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS SETTLE BELOW 20 KTS OVER THE WEST
HALF BY MONDAY MORNING AND OVER THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT PEAK WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 12FT OVER THE WEST HALF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER THE EAST. WAVES SETTLE BELOW 4FT IN THE WEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY ON MONDAY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TRACK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS BY TUESDAY
EVENING, BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-30 KTS WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. 34-40 KT GALES
ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 15-
30% CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW
TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, WINDS FALL TO 20-30 KTS AND BECOME
NORTHWEST TO WEST FOR THURSDAY. WINDS FALL BELOW 20 KTS THURSDAY
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY
AROUND 10-15FT OVER THE NORTH HALF, WITH HIGHEST WAVES OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL NEAR ISLE ROYALE UP TO 16FT. WAVES LIKELY FALL TO
BETWEEN 4-8FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SETTLE BELOW 4FT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS LIKELY REMAIN 20 KTS OR LESS MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ001>005-009-084.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ MONDAY FOR
MIZ006-007-010>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ263-264.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ266.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LSZ267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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