674
FXUS63 KMQT 310650
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
250 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY COULD
ALSO BRING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-35
MPH. ALTHOUGH EXACT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SOME MINOR
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SNOWFALL WRAPS UP THIS MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES INTO CANADA. IN
RESPONSE, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROWAL MOVING PROGRESSIVELY
EASTWARD OUT OF OUR AREA, WITH ONLY LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOWFALL REMAINING
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL BEHIND THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL (CURRENTLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.P.). EXPECT THIS UPSLOPE SNOWFALL TO
END BY THE MID MORNING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE AIR BEHIND THE LOW
MOVES INTO THE REGION. OVERALL, WE COULD STILL SEE A COUPLE OF WET
INCHES OF SNOWFALL FALL OVER THE EAST EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT A INCH OR LESS TO FALL OVER THE EAST HALF BEFORE THE SNOWFALL
ENDS THIS MORNING.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN LATER TODAY, EXPECT A RETURN TO SUNNY
SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE YOOP, ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO AROUND 30 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S IN THE INTERIOR AND SOUTH CENTRAL. NEVERTHELESS, WE SHOULD
ALREADY BEGIN TO SEE SOME ICE AND/OR SNOWMELT BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE HIGH SUN ANGLE WORKS AGAINST THE FRESH WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
THE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT SECOND ROUND OF WINTER
WEATHER WILL BE AROUND 994MB OVER SW QUEBEC MON MORNING, JUST AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE OVER S ONTARIO. A SECOND TROUGH OVER MANITOBA/N
ONTARIO WILL PIVOT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR/UPPER MI ON MON AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NE OVER QUEBEC. 850MB TEMPS SETTLE TO BETWEEN -13C TO
-14C, WHICH MAY YIELD SOME -SN SHOWERS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ISLE
ROYALE LATE IN THE DAY MON INTO MON NIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD REACH
THE KEWEENAW MON NIGHT, OTHERWISE NO ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. HIGHS ON MON WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
THE HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 1029MB BECOMES CENTERED OVER N ONTARIO MON
NIGHT INTO TUE, EXTENDING RIDGING S INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTS CLEARING SKIES AND CALM WINDS. WITH THE NAEFS
MEAN PWATS BELOW THE CLIMATOLOGICAL 10TH PERCENTILE OVERNIGHT
ALONGSIDE SUBSIDENCE, RADIATIVE COOLING WILL YIELD THE COLDEST NIGHT
IN THE EXTENDED FCST WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS INTERIOR W WITH
INTERIOR E NEAR 10F AND TEENS BY THE GREAT LAKES/IN THE KEWEENAW.
ASIDE FROM THE LOW CHANCE (15% OR LESS) FOR FLURRIES IN THE KEWEENAW
MON NIGHT, DRY WEATHER CONTINUES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES RETURN ON TUE AS HIGHS WARM UP TO 32-40F, WARMEST W.
TROUGHING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUE PUSHES OUT OVER THE PLAINS TUE
NIGHT AND LIFTS NE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WED INTO THU. A CO LOW
DEVELOPS ON TUE, LIKELY TRACKING NE OVER UPPER MI WED NIGHT. NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGY INDICATES GOOD POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BE STRONG
WITH MEAN SLP NEAR THE 0.5TH PERCENTILE. THE WIND FIELD REFLECTS
THIS STRENGTH WITH 850-700MB WINDS BETWEEN 40-60 KTS LIFTING OVER
THE REGION ON WED. MIXING LOOKS TO YIELD WIDESPREAD GUSTY ESE WINDS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH IN THE KEWEENAW DURING THE
DAY. NBM PROBABILITIES OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA (GUSTS TO +45 MPH)
ARE BETWEEN 15-30% IN THE KEWEENAW, COLLOCATED WITH SIMILAR EPS
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS UP TO 58 MPH! GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO MIX DOWN AS HIGH AS THE EPS HINTS
AT, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD.
WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM KICK OFF PRECIP TUE
NIGHT FROM THE SW, QUICKLY EXPANDING NE ACROSS THE CWA INTO WED. P-
TYPE LIKELY STARTS OFF AS SN, BUT -FZRA BEGINS TO MIX IN MID MORNING
ON WED AS A WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800-700MB DEVELOPS ALOFT. EVENTUALLY,
-RA BECOMES THE DOMINANT P-TYPE WITH SFC TEMPS ECLIPSING FREEZING
AND GROUND TEMPS WARMING UP DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE. THERE STILL
IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ON SFC LOW TRACK TO BE CONFIDENT ON
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS, BUT WITH A WET SN AND INCREASING WINDS ON
WED, SOME MINOR IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF 3" OF
SN IN 24HR LOWERED TO 20-40% OVER THE W HALF OF THE CWA WITH ~20%
FOR 6" IN THE KEWEENAW. FOR -FZRA, THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR
0.10" OF ICE IN THE INTERIOR/KEWEENAW WITH WIDESPREAD 10-25% CHANCES
FOR AT LEAST A GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS THE UP. SLIPPERY ROADS FROM
-FZRA/SN COULD IMPACT THE WED COMMUTES. TRAILING -SN IS POSSIBLE ON
THU.
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO RETURN BY THU NIGHT, BUT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
RETURN LATE NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOMALOUS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PAC
NW/W CANADA SENDING SHORTWAVES/CLIPPER SYSTEMS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST MON 06Z DUE TO
WINTER STORM. AFTER THAT, EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY A RETURN TO VFR BY MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS,
EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE HAS
BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SNOW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
NORTHEAST GALES TO ~35 KTS EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE LAKE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. WINDS
GRADUALLY BACK NORTH TONIGHT, SETTLING BELOW GALES BY LATE TONIGHT
WITH THE SYSTEM TRAVERSING NORTHEAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GREAT
LAKES BASIN. NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS SETTLE BELOW 20 KTS OVER THE WEST
HALF BY MONDAY MORNING AND OVER THE EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. EXPECT PEAK WAVE
HEIGHTS UP TO 12FT OVER THE WEST HALF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER THE EAST. WAVES SETTLE BELOW 4FT IN THE WEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND LATE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE EAST. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOME
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT WITH MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY ON MONDAY.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TRACK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS BY TUESDAY
EVENING, BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-30 KTS WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. 34-40 KT GALES
ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 15-
30% CHANCE FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW
TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, WINDS FALL TO 20-30 KTS AND BECOME
NORTHWEST TO WEST FOR THURSDAY. WINDS FALL BELOW 20 KTS THURSDAY
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS ARE LIKELY
AROUND 10-15FT OVER THE NORTH HALF, WITH HIGHEST WAVES OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL NEAR ISLE ROYALE UP TO 16FT. WAVES LIKELY FALL TO
BETWEEN 4-8FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND SETTLE BELOW 4FT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. WINDS LIKELY REMAIN 20 KTS OR LESS MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ006-
007-013-014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LSZ267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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