081
FXUS63 KMQT 311902
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
302 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY COULD
ALSO BRING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25-35
MPH. ALTHOUGH EXACT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, SOME MINOR
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
SURFACE ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A BROAD
MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. BUT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW FLURRIES COULD OVERCOME THE HIGH
PRESSURE, BUT NOTHING THAT WILL BE OF ANY IMPACT. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE UP AT THIS TIME ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S/LOW 30S. BUT, WITH THE HIGH SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR,
IT IS ALREADY TRYING TO MELT THE FRESH SNOWPACK AND LINGERING ICE
ACCUMULATION. TONIGHT, STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING IN COMBINATION
WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO PLUMMET INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WITH LOW TO MID TEENS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF UPPER MICHIGAN. LAKESHORES WILL BE A TAD WARMER IN
THE LOW 20S.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING WINTER STORM, THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF
NOTE IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE A ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY BOOKENDED BY STRONG
SURFACE HIGHS EARLY AND LATE IN THE WEEK. SPREAD IS STILL HIGH ON
THE PRECIPITATION OUTCOMES FOR THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, BUT A NUMBER OF
WEATHER HAZARDS REMAIN IN PLAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN GROWS INTO THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND, BUT THE PATTERN LOOKS TO FAVOR HIGH PRESSURE
INTERRUPTED BY WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEMS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY 00Z
TUESDAY. WHILE SOME CAMS SHOW SOME FLURRIES DEFYING THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY, DUE TO A LACK OF CONSENSUS BETWEEN
MODELS AND THE FACT THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NIL
WITH SUCH FLURRIES, HAVE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. THE HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH THE GEFS RESOLVES A MEAN OF
1027MB OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO 18Z TUESDAY, WILL GIVE SOME PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYTIME TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME SUN
AND HIGHS INTO THE 30S. CLEAR SKIES AND PWAT IN THE BOTTOM 10% OF
CLIMATOLOGY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS WILL PROVIDE PRIME CONDITIONS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING, WITH LOWS UP TO 30% LIKELY TO FALL TO 0 DEGREES IN THE
INTERIOR WEST TUESDAY MORNING PER THE NBM.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM WHERE A 500MB TROUGH ACQUIRES A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT CROSSES THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY,
SUPPORTING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WITH MOST OF THE GEFS MEMBERS
SHOWING PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE LOW 990S MB. SPREAD ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW IS ONLY GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS AT 06Z
THURSDAY LOWS SPREAD FROM EASTERN MINNESOTA TO NORTH OF GEORGIAN
BAY. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO THE MOST RECENT WINTER EVENT, A STRONG GULF
CONNECTION HAS NAEFS IVT VALUES ABOVE THE 97.5TH PERCENTILE AND
850MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR THE FREEZING MARK FOLLOWING WARM
ADVECTION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. ONCE AGAIN, THIS COULD BE A MESS
OF PRECIP TYPES, THOUGH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING THE UP RESIDING IN THE WARM SECTOR AND/OR UNDER A DRY SLOT.
DESPITE SOME SIMILARITIES IN THE SETUP TO THIS MOST RECENT WINTER
EVENT, ICE STORM CONDITIONS ARE LESS THAN 5% LIKELY UP-WIDE PER THE
00Z LREF, AND CHANCES OF A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ARE ABOUT 15-30%
ACROSS THE UP. WITH TEMPERATURES (AND THUS, PTYPE AND SNOW RATIOS)
IN FLUX, DETAILS ABOUT SNOWFALL ARE A BIT FUZZY, BUT TRENDS IN THE
ENSEMBLES HAVE PUSHED THE HIGHEST CORE OF HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OUT OF
THE UP. DESPITE THIS, A LOW-END ADVISORY IS STILL 30-70% LIKELY FOR
AROUND 4 INCHES OF WET SNOWFALL. BEYOND PRECIPITATION, THIS COULD
ALSO BE A GUSTY PERIOD, WITH THE EFI SHOWING VALUES OVER 0.8 AND
SHIFT OF TAILS OVER 0 (LOCALLY OVER 1). FOR NOW, THAT LOOKS LIKE
WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY BUT THE EURO ENSEMBLE
SHOWS GUSTS TO 58+ MPH AROUND 30% PROBABLE FOR THE KEWEENAW, SO WIND-
SENSITIVE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEDNESDAY FORECAST CLOSELY.
ONCE AGAIN, THAT FORECAST IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AS THE NBM ONLY SHOWS
30% CHANCES OF CRACKING 45 MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE OVER THE
REGION, WITH 1020S TO 1030S MB HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. MEAN 500MB HEIGHT CHARTS
SHOW GOOD FAVORABILITY TOWARDS NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING
DIGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS STRUGGLE TO
COALESCE AROUND ANY CONSISTENT FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND,
BUT THE PATTERN DOES SEEM TO FAVOR PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
INTERRUPTED BY WEAKER SYSTEMS, MORE OF THE STYLE OF ALBERTA
CLIPPERS, THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD THAT STRONGER SYSTEMS CANNOT
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT. THE CPC OUTLOOKS ARE NOW PICKING UP MORE ON
THE RAMIFICATIONS OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY, WITH BOTH THE 8-14 DAY AND 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOKS SHOWING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FOR THE UP, THOUGH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP/TEMPS FOR WEEKS 3-4.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO BOTH IWD AND CMX, BUT CIGS HAVE BEEN
SLOW TO IMPROVE AT SAW IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S WINTER STORM.
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON AT SAW
WHEN THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR THERE AS WELL. OTHER
IMPACTS INCLUDE NORTHWEST WINDS ABOVE 12 KTS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD (TUESDAY MORNING).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 434 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
NORTH WINDS 20-30 KTS SETTLE BELOW 20 KTS OVER THE WEST HALF THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND OVER THE EAST TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO. WAVES SETTLE BELOW 4FT IN THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND LATE TONIGHT IN THE EAST. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TRACK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS
INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS BY TUESDAY EVENING, BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST
20-30 KTS WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES
THE GREAT LAKES. GALES OF 35-45 KT ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CHANCES OF STORM FORCE GUSTS TO 50 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY ARE NOT UP TO 40-50% CHANCE. WITH THE CHANCES OF HIGHER
GUSTS INCREASING, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY. AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, WINDS FALL
TO 20-30 KTS AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO WEST FOR THURSDAY. WINDS FALL
BELOW 20 KTS THURSDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. PEAK WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 14-18FT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
LAKE, AROUND 10 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES LIKELY FALL TO BETWEEN 4-8FT BY
THURSDAY MORNING, SETTLING BELOW 4FT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
LIKELY REMAIN 20 KTS OR LESS MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR LSZ162-243>245-251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TDUD
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...GS
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