814
FXUS63 KMQT 010540
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
140 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BRING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
25-35 MPH. ALTHOUGH EXACT ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN,
PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE
MORNING COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN MANITOBA AT 05Z PER THE RAP ANALYSIS
EXTENDING SURFACE RIDGING TO NEAR 1020MB OVER THE UP THIS MORNING.
DESPITE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS DUE TO SURFACE FEATURES OVER QUEBEC
AND THE HIGH PLAINS, THE GRADIENT OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS IS
QUITE RELAXED, WITH ONLY A 3 MB GRADIENT FROM MEMPHIS TN TO THUNDER
BAY ON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS, WITH CALM TO LIGHT-AND-
VARIABLE WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE UP, SAVE FOR SOME TERRAIN-
INFLUENCED OR LAKE-INFLUENCED FLOWS LOCALLY ENHANCING FLOW IN SOME
SPOTS. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE UP, BUT
LOOKING UPSTREAM, HIGH CIRRUS IS MOVING OVER MN AND WI THIS EVENING,
THE FIRST SIGNS OF DISTURBED WEATHER UPSTREAM. THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS THE 00Z HREF SHOWS
LESS THAN 15% CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE UP BY THAT TIME. HOWEVER,
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM UPSTREAM, THE CALM
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WITH HREF MEAN GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ALREADY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS
FORECAST WONT REFLECT SUCH STRONG GUSTS JUST YET, BUT THE GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 MPH IN THIS PACKAGE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE FROM
THE LIGHT-AND-VARIABLE NATURE OF THE WINDS CURRENTLY. WITH THE
CALM WINDS, RECENT SNOWFALL, AND CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THE YELLOW DOG FALLS RAWS
ALREADY IN THE NEGATIVES AND MANY OTHER OBS IN THE INTERIOR UP
SHOWING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING. ONCE THE SUN COMES
OUT, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR ONTONAGON COUNTY,
WHERE THE NBM SHOWS UP TO 40% CHANCES OF HIGHS BREAKING 45.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
EXPANSIVE SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHERN ONTARIO EXTENDS SOUTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY, KEEPING THINGS QUIET AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO DEEP TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE
LATE TUESDAY, DEVELOPING A CO LOW THAT SHOOTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY. 12Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE THE
CENTRAL LOW PRESSURE REACHING ~990MB IN SOUTHERN MN COME WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGIN TO UPTICK ACROSS WISCONSIN
AND INTO THE S-CENTRAL UP EARLY WEDNESDAY, WHERE PRECIP TYPES ARE
LIKELY TO START OFF AS SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THIS PRECIPITATION
ONSET SLIGHTLY, LIKELY HAVING TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LEFT OVER FROM THE DEPARTING HIGH. HOWEVER, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT
TOP-DOWN SATURATION OCCURING QUICKLY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
UNSURPRISING GIVEN THE STRONG GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION. AS THE SFC
LOW CONTINUES INTO CENTRAL MN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE ELEVATED
WARM FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING FURTHER INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO CHANGE ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO MORE OF A WINTRY MIX WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE ANY
AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATION IS A CERTAINLY A NUISANCE, NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR IMPACTFUL FREEZING RAIN IS RELATIVELY LOW,
SUGGESTING A 30-50% CHANCE FOR A GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MARQUETTE/BARAGA SOUTHWEST INTO IRON/DICKINSON THROUGH
WED AFTERNOON. WET SNOWFALL AMOUNTS PRIOR TO THE WINTRY MIX/RAIN
CHANGEOVER WILL BE TRICKY TO NAIL CONSIDERING THE SYSTEM'S TRACK UP
THE WESTERN ARM OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACCOMPANYING WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS TRACK ALLOWS THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT TO MOVE OVERHEAD
QUICKLY, DIMINISHING ONGOING PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY TO A DRIZZLE OR
CUTTING IT OFF ENTIRELY. ENSEMBLES AND NBM GUIDANCE SUGGEST ~60%
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS IN MENOMINEE AND KEWEENAW
COUNTIES. THERE IS STILL WIGGLE ROOM FOR THE LOW TRACK TO CHANGE, SO
CONFIDENCE ISN'T TOO HIGH. THE LREF SUGGESTS UP TO A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF MUCAPE ATOP THE ELEVATED WARM LAYER, MEANING A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SIMILAR TO THIS PREVIOUS
WEEKEND STORM, SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LAYER OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE AND SFC TEMPS AT OR NEAR
FREEZING, SIGNALING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER-SLEET, OR THUNDER-
FREEZING-RAIN, WHICH WAS SEEN ACROSS THE UP THIS WEEKEND.
MOREOVER, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE WINDY. 6-12MB 6 HOURLY PRESSURE
FALLS WILL INCREASE GUSTY SE WINDS. WIDESPREAD 30MPH GUSTS ARE
HIGHLY LIKELY AND ENS PROBS FOR 58+ MPH PUSH 30-50% IN THE KEWEENAW,
WHICH IF THE TREND HOLDS WOULD WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.
IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW, HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN MOVE OVER THE
REGION, WITH 1020S TO 1030S MB HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SPREAD INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND. MEAN 500MB HEIGHT CHARTS
SHOW GOOD FAVORABILITY TOWARDS NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING
DIGGING OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS STRUGGLE TO
COALESCE AROUND ANY CONSISTENT FEATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND,
BUT THE PATTERN DOES SEEM TO FAVOR PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE
INTERRUPTED BY WEAKER SYSTEMS, MORE OF THE STYLE OF ALBERTA
CLIPPERS, THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH SPREAD THAT STRONGER SYSTEMS CANNOT
ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT. THE CPC OUTLOOKS ARE NOW PICKING UP MORE ON
THE RAMIFICATIONS OF PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURES IN THE VICINITY, WITH BOTH THE 8-14 DAY AND 6-10 DAY
OUTLOOKS SHOWING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED FOR THE UP, THOUGH EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL
PRECIP/TEMPS FOR WEEKS 3-4.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL 3 TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BRING PRECIP AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT, WITH IWD THE FIRST TO FALL TO
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY AND THE OTHER TERMINALS FALLING
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS -SN FOR THIS TAF
ISSUANCE, BUT BY DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAMP UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT ALL 3
SITES BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TRACK OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS INCREASE UP TO 20-25 KTS BY TUESDAY
EVENING, BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 20-30 KTS WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES. GALES OF 35-45
KT ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. CHANCES OF STORM FORCE
GUSTS TO 50 KTS ON WEDNESDAY ARE UP TO 30-50%. AS THE LOW TRACKS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR, WINDS FALL TO 20-30 KTS AND BECOME NORTHWEST TO
WEST FOR THURSDAY. WINDS FALL BELOW 20 KTS THURSDAY EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 14-18FT OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE, AROUND 10 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES
LIKELY FALL TO BETWEEN 4-8FT BY THURSDAY MORNING, SETTLING BELOW 4FT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS LIKELY REMAIN 20 KTS OR LESS MUCH OF
THIS WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ162-243>245-251-263>267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...BW
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