713
FXUS63 KMQT 010819
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
419 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL BRING MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES AND GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 35 TO 45 MPH. EXPECT THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PREPARE FOR
SLICK ROADS ACROSS THE U.P. FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REIGNS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WITH A 1026 MB HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NORTHWESTERN MANITOBA AT 05Z PER THE RAP ANALYSIS
EXTENDING SURFACE RIDGING TO NEAR 1020MB OVER THE UP THIS MORNING.
DESPITE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS DUE TO SURFACE FEATURES OVER QUEBEC
AND THE HIGH PLAINS, THE GRADIENT OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS IS
QUITE RELAXED, WITH ONLY A 3 MB GRADIENT FROM MEMPHIS TN TO THUNDER
BAY ON. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS, WITH CALM TO LIGHT-AND-
VARIABLE WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS THE UP, SAVE FOR SOME TERRAIN-
INFLUENCED OR LAKE-INFLUENCED FLOWS LOCALLY ENHANCING FLOW IN SOME
SPOTS. NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE UP, BUT
LOOKING UPSTREAM, HIGH CIRRUS IS MOVING OVER MN AND WI THIS EVENING,
THE FIRST SIGNS OF DISTURBED WEATHER UPSTREAM. THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST AS THE 00Z HREF SHOWS
LESS THAN 15% CHANCES OF PRECIP OVER THE UP BY THAT TIME. HOWEVER,
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE FROM UPSTREAM, THE CALM
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE SOUTHEAST, WITH HREF MEAN GUSTS
TO 25 MPH ALREADY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS
FORECAST WONT REFLECT SUCH STRONG GUSTS JUST YET, BUT THE GUSTS TO
NEAR 20 MPH IN THIS PACKAGE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE INCREASE FROM
THE LIGHT-AND-VARIABLE NATURE OF THE WINDS CURRENTLY. WITH THE
CALM WINDS, RECENT SNOWFALL, AND CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE
ALREADY FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH THE YELLOW DOG FALLS RAWS
ALREADY IN THE NEGATIVES AND MANY OTHER OBS IN THE INTERIOR UP
SHOWING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND FALLING. ONCE THE SUN COMES
OUT, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 30S TODAY, EXCEPT FOR ONTONAGON COUNTY,
WHERE THE NBM SHOWS UP TO 40% CHANCES OF HIGHS BREAKING 45.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE WARM FRONT OF AN INCOMING LOW
MOVING OVER US TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS STRONG ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND MID TO LOWER LEVEL WARM FRONTOGENESIS MOVES OVERHEAD
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL TO MOVE OVER THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
LEVELS INITIALLY BEING AROUND -5 C, EXPECT THE SLRS TO BE IN THE
LOWER TEENS (12-14:1) IN THIS INITIAL BAND. WHILE SOME OF THE MODEL
QPFS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING TO THE
SURFACE, BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE STRONG ISENTROPIC FORCING
AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL OVERCOME THE DRY LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE FAIRLY EARLY ON. THUS, FORECASTED SNOWFALL AND
LIQUID AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY INCREASED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HOWEVER, AS THE FORCING DEGRADES AS IT HEADS
NORTHEASTWARDS, EXPECT THE SNOWFALL TO BEGIN DECREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN TIERS OF THE U.P. LATE TONIGHT, WITH THE EAST
POSSIBLY COMPLETELY MISSING OUT ON THIS FIRST BAND OF SNOWFALL.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL BAND, EXPECT A DRY SLOT TO MOVE INTO THE U.P.
LATE TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING Q-DIVERGENCE AND REINFORCING
ISENTROPIC LIFT BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH WARM FRONTOGENESIS INCREASING THE
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
EXPECT THE INITIALLY SOMEWHAT WET SNOWFALL TO BECOME VERY WET LATER
IN THE MORNING BEFORE WE POSSIBLY SEEING A QUICK TRANSITION OVER TO
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE TURNING OVER TO PURE RAINFALL BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE U.P.. WHILE (THANKFULLY) ICE AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE NOT MUCH MORE THAN A GLAZE/TRACE WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WE COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF WET
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
TRANSITIONING OVER TO RAIN BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE SOUTH CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR WEST SEEING 2 TO 6 INCHES OF WET SNOW AND POSSIBLY A
TRACE OF ICE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM IRON TO MENOMINEE AND DELTA COUNTIES;
THE WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS COULD EXASPERATE THE RECOVERY EFFORTS
FROM THE MOST RECENT ICE STORM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING; IT WON'T HELP THAT GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED. THUS, WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL DOWNED POWER LINES, POWER
OUTAGES, AND ROAD CLOSURES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING; TAKE IT SLOW AND PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL TRAVEL DELAYS AS A
WORST CASE SCENARIO IF DRIVING IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES, WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES AND A POTENTIAL GLAZE OF ICE IN THE
KEWEENAW HAS PUT THE PENINSULA UNDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TOO;
WE MAY ALSO FLIRT WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE IN THE DAY IN
KEWEENAW COUNTY AS WINDS GUST UP TO 45 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE U.P., UP TO A WET 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND
POTENTIALLY A GLAZE OF ICE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING; WE MAY SEE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES ADDED INTO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IN THE FUTURE THOUGH IF THE INITIAL BAND CAN HOLD ON AND IF
THE DRY SLOT SHRINKS. NEVERTHELESS, WHILE IMPACTS ONLY LOOK TO BE
NUISANCE TO MINOR NORTH OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL, DO TAKE IT SLOW IN THE
WET SNOW AND POTENTIAL LIGHT ICE BEFORE WE TRANSITION OVER TO RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON. ONCE THE WARM FRONT OF THE LOW PASSES THROUGH,
EXPECT THE SECOND DRY SLOT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE THE WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE OF THE LOW MOVES BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE
NORTHWEST WIND SNOW BELTS; WITH THE DRIER, COLDER AIR MOVING IN
BEHIND THE LOW, EXPECT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, EXPECT A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGING LOOKS TO PERSIST, ALTHOUGH SOME SHORTWAVES ROTATING
NEAR THE AREA COULD IMPACT THE AREA SHOULD THE GUIDANCE SHIFT THE
TRACKS OF THE HIGHS AND LOWS ACROSS THE CONUS (SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS SEEM PLAUSIBLE LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND). OVERALL
THOUGH, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS IS EXPECTED, OTHER THAN THE
CONTINUATION OF MELTING SNOW AND ICE ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES
WARM FOR THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL 3 TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BRING PRECIP AND LOWER
CEILINGS TO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT, WITH IWD THE FIRST TO FALL TO
MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY AND THE OTHER TERMINALS FALLING
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS -SN FOR THIS TAF
ISSUANCE, BUT BY DAYTIME WEDNESDAY, A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TYPES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL 3 SITES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH THIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAMP UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT ALL 3
SITES BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 419 AM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OF LESS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY UNTIL A STRONG LOW PRESSURE LIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TOWARDS THE LAKE BRINGS EAST TO SOUTHEAST GALES OF 40 KNOTS
TO STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY; GALE AND STORM FORCE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN
RESPONSE TO THIS. HOWEVER, AS THE LOW PASSES THROUGH, EXPECT THE
WINDS TO LIGHTEN AROUND THE LOW BEFORE INCREASING FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE LAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE OVER
THE LAKE THURSDAY (LREF SHOWING A 50% CHANCE). AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN, EXPECT THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT; THE LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A CALMER SURFACE PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 4 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT
TO NOON EDT /11 AM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010>013.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ243-
247>250.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244>246-
265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264-266-
267.
STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...GS
MARINE...TAP
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