980
FXUS63 KMQT 012021
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
421 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREPARE FOR SLICK ROADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES.
- PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW, BUT A WINTRY MIX BEGINS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO MAINLY
ALL RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF WET SNOW
WITH UP TO 4-5 INCHES IN THE KEWEENAW AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.P.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED UP TO 35-45 MPH, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH TERRAIN, EAST, AND KEWEENAW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS HAS MIDLEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED DOWNSTREAM OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH, LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA. UNDER SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING
NICELY FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE UP. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SO
FAR, AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO PEAK IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR TODAY.
EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES, LEADING
TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY - MORE ON THAT BELOW.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST STARTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED,
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP TO THE UP. A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N
HALF OF THE PLAINS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED TONIGHT THROUGH WED,
TRACKING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY WED INTO THU.
THIS SUPPORTS A STRONG SFC LOW FROM W KS TO UPPER MI BY WED NIGHT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO START OFF AS SN ALONG THE WI/MI
STATE LINE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM EDT TONIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SLOWLY EXPANDING SN TO THE NE. POP COVERAGE WEAKENS NOT LONG
AFTER OUTSIDE THE S CENTRAL, DESPITE THE INCREASING SUPPORT FROM WAA
AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE 10-15KFT DROPS OFF LATE TONIGHT. LIFT IS
THEN MAXIMIZED MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 130KT JET LIFTS OVER THE UP COUPLED WITH STRONG WAA.
DRIER AIR IN THE W WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS SECOND ROUND,
BUT BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE E. A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING
FZRA/PL/RA BEGINS TO MIX IN FROM THE S MID DAY, TRANSITIONING OVER
TO PRIMARILY RA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S; SOME SPOT MAY REACH 40 IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, A DRY SLOT OVER THE W FAVORS DRIER PERIODS INTO
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CAMS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT. INCREASING F-GEN ALOFT DOES LOOK TO INCREASE POPS
IN THE W LATE ON WED AS -SHRA PROGRESS E OVER THE UP. GIVEN SOME
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE GOING FCST. WITH WET SNOWFALL OF SLR'S
AROUND 10:1, WIDESPREAD 1-2" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH UP TO 4-5"
OVER THE S CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS IMPACTING THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST WILL BE LIMITED TO A LIGHT GLAZE, HOWEVER A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF ICE CANT BE RULED OUT.
OUTSIDE THE WINTRY PRECIP, GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AS WELL ~35-45 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN THE
KEWEENAW, FAR EAST, AND IN AREAS OF SSE DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR A FEW
HOURS. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD, BUT INCREASE OUT OF THE W TO NW OR THU AROUND
25-35 MPH. AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER W UPPER MI WED NIGHT, DRIER AIR
EXPANDS OVER THE E. MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPS WRAP AROUND
THE SYSTEM INTO THU, AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF UPSLOPE FLOW, YIELD
SOME -SHSN OVER THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS (MAINLY FAR W UP). ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS HOLD LESS THAN 1". HIGH PRESSURE AND DECREASING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY RETURNS DRY WEATHER TO THE UP ON THU.
A TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE ON THU AMPLIFIES ON FRI,
EXTENDING INTO THE N PLAINS. THIS TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED TO PIVOT
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MON, BRINGING
BACK SOME -SHSN TO THE UP ON SAT. THIS TRANSITIONS OVER TO PURE LES
SHSN SUN NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -18C.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL 3 TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY BRING PRECIP AND POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER CEILINGS TO THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A DRY SLOT TO INTERFERE WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE
FOR CEILINGS/PRECIP, HAVE ELECTED TO ONLY INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS TO IWD
AND HOLD OFF ON SUB-VFR VIS AT ALL SITES UNTIL LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE
IMPROVES AFTER 12Z. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS -SN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE,
BUT BY THE AFTERNOON OF WEDNESDAY, A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIP TYPES WILL
OCCUR AT ALL 3 SITES, EVENTUALLY BECOMING ALL -RA. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAMP UP OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE, WITH GUSTS
TO 20-25KTS AFTER 00Z AND POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 30KTS AT CMX BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LLWS IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY BEFORE MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE. THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL
IMPACTED WILL BE IWD, WITH LLWS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 12-14Z.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GALES OF 35-40
KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH END GALES TO 40-45 KTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE WITH STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KTS
OVER THE EAST HALF, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL LINE. WINDS
DROP OFF INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DOWN TO 30-45 KTS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINDS FALL FURTHER TO 20-
30 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE,
QUICKLY WRAPPING AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AT 20-30 KTS. THERE IS A 40-
70% CHANCE FOR GALES TO 35 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE ON
THURSDAY.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD UP TO 12-20FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE. WAVES SETTLE BACK
DOWN TO 4-8FT BY THURSDAY AS WINDS DROP OFF AND TURN OUT OF THE WEST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST, ALLOWING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO SETTLE
BELOW 20 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ001-003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT EDT /11 PM CDT/ TONIGHT
TO 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR MIZ010>013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ243-
247>250.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ244>246-
265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ251.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264-266-
267.
STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ264-266-
267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ221-248-
250.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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