515
FXUS63 KMQT 020408
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
1208 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PREPARE FOR SLICK ROADS ON WEDNESDAY WITH
POTENTIAL POWER OUTAGES.
- PRECIPITATION STARTS OFF AS SNOW, BUT A WINTRY MIX BEGINS LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER TO MAINLY
ALL RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES OF WET SNOW
WITH UP TO 4-5 INCHES IN THE KEWEENAW AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.P.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED UP TO 35-45 MPH, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGH TERRAIN, EAST, AND KEWEENAW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
EARLY AFTERNOON RAP ANALYSIS HAS MIDLEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, SUPPORTING SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED DOWNSTREAM OVER EASTERN ONTARIO. ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE SURFACE HIGH, LIGHT WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
UPPER PENINSULA. UNDER SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE REBOUNDING
NICELY FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE UP. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S SO
FAR, AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO PEAK IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR TODAY.
EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A DEEP SURFACE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE ROCKIES, LEADING
TO A STEEPENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ROUNDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY - MORE ON THAT BELOW.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST STARTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED,
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP TO THE UP. A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N
HALF OF THE PLAINS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED TONIGHT THROUGH WED,
TRACKING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY WED INTO THU.
THIS SUPPORTS A STRONG SFC LOW FROM W KS TO UPPER MI BY WED NIGHT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO START OFF AS SN ALONG THE WI/MI
STATE LINE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM EDT TONIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SLOWLY EXPANDING SN TO THE NE. POP COVERAGE WEAKENS NOT LONG
AFTER OUTSIDE THE S CENTRAL, DESPITE THE INCREASING SUPPORT FROM WAA
AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE 10-15KFT DROPS OFF LATE TONIGHT. LIFT IS
THEN MAXIMIZED MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 130KT JET LIFTS OVER THE UP COUPLED WITH STRONG WAA.
DRIER AIR IN THE W WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS SECOND ROUND,
BUT BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE E. A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING
FZRA/PL/RA BEGINS TO MIX IN FROM THE S MID DAY, TRANSITIONING OVER
TO PRIMARILY RA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S; SOME SPOT MAY REACH 40 IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, A DRY SLOT OVER THE W FAVORS DRIER PERIODS INTO
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CAMS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT. INCREASING F-GEN ALOFT DOES LOOK TO INCREASE POPS
IN THE W LATE ON WED AS -SHRA PROGRESS E OVER THE UP. GIVEN SOME
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE GOING FCST. WITH WET SNOWFALL OF SLR'S
AROUND 10:1, WIDESPREAD 1-2" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH UP TO 4-5"
OVER THE S CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS IMPACTING THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST WILL BE LIMITED TO A LIGHT GLAZE, HOWEVER A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF ICE CANT BE RULED OUT.
OUTSIDE THE WINTRY PRECIP, GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AS WELL ~35-45 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN THE
KEWEENAW, FAR EAST, AND IN AREAS OF SSE DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR A FEW
HOURS. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD, BUT INCREASE OUT OF THE W TO NW OR THU AROUND
25-35 MPH. AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER W UPPER MI WED NIGHT, DRIER AIR
EXPANDS OVER THE E. MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPS WRAP AROUND
THE SYSTEM INTO THU, AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF UPSLOPE FLOW, YIELD
SOME -SHSN OVER THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS (MAINLY FAR W UP). ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS HOLD LESS THAN 1". HIGH PRESSURE AND DECREASING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY RETURNS DRY WEATHER TO THE UP ON THU.
A TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE ON THU AMPLIFIES ON FRI,
EXTENDING INTO THE N PLAINS. THIS TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED TO PIVOT
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MON, BRINGING
BACK SOME -SHSN TO THE UP ON SAT. THIS TRANSITIONS OVER TO PURE LES
SHSN SUN NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -18C.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS A SYSTEM BRINGS STRONG WINDS, LOW CEILINGS,
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL TERMINALS.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 25KTS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PEAK AT 30-
40KTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, HIGHEST AT KCMX. FIRST WAVE OF SNOW
WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY HAVE
TROUBLE OVERCOMING DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. A SECOND WAVE
FOLLOWS BY MORNING, WHICH WILL SHIFT TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
SIGNALS FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN.
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT KCMX/KSAW. CEILINGS/VIS
WILL FALL TO MVFR AND THEN IFR AS PRECIP CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.
LIFR CEILINGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT KCMX/KSAW BY AFTERNOON AND ALL
TERMINALS BY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GALES OF 35-40
KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH END GALES TO 40-45 KTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE WITH STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KTS
OVER THE EAST HALF, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL LINE. WINDS
DROP OFF INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DOWN TO 30-45 KTS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINDS FALL FURTHER TO 20-
30 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE,
QUICKLY WRAPPING AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AT 20-30 KTS. THERE IS A 40-
70% CHANCE FOR GALES TO 35 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE ON
THURSDAY.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD UP TO 12-20FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE. WAVES SETTLE BACK
DOWN TO 4-8FT BY THURSDAY AS WINDS DROP OFF AND TURN OUT OF THE WEST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST, ALLOWING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO SETTLE
BELOW 20 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ010>013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING TO 8
PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-263.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ243-247>250.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244>246-265.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264-266-267.
STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR LMZ221-248-250.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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