750
FXUS63 KMQT 020737
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
337 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UP AND THE KEWEENAW FOR MULTIPLE INCHES OF ACCUMULATING WET SNOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL WINTRY MIX.
- WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UP
FOR AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A HIGH 980S MB LOW PRESSURE STRADDLING THE OK/KS
LINE AT 07Z THIS MORNING, WITH GOES-16 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING
ISENTROPICALLY-FORCED SHOWERS EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THIS SYSTEM. KMNM METARS HAVE SHOWN PRECIPITATION FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS NOW, BUT FURTHER TO THE NORTH, LIGHT RADAR RETURNS DO GIVE THE
INDICATION THAT SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO FORM, BUT ARE BATTLING LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 5-10 DEGREES STILL.
FORECAST POPS FOR THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK AS A RESULT,
ESPECIALLY AS 00Z CAMS SHOW THIS FIRST PUSH OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
"FIZZLING OUT" BY 12Z FOR MOST OF THE UP. THE CLOUD COVER IS WELL
ESTABLISHED NOW THOUGH, WHICH IS A BIT OF A BUMMER AS NPS ISLE
ROYALE WEBCAMS SHOWED A DECENT AMOUNT OF AURORAL ACTIVITY. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL ALSO KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 20S THIS
MORNING, SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT'S LOWS.
THE MAIN PUSH OF PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL ARRIVE
THROUGHOUT THE LATER MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE GEFS
SHOWS THE LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH IN THE MID 980S MB BY
00Z THURSDAY. WHILE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES SHOULD KEEP THE INITIAL
PRECIPITATION TYPES AS SNOW, A WARM NOSE QUICKLY DEVELOPS ON
SOUNDINGS, WHICH CREATES A COMPLEX PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST, WITH
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIXING IN FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A
PUSH TO ALL RAIN FOR MOST BY 00Z AS THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ARRIVES.
THE HREF FRAM 50TH PERCENTILE DOES SHOW A CORE OF VALUES AROUND 0.1"
OF ICE ACCUMULATION FOR THE SPINE OF THE KEWEENAW AND FOR THE
CENTRAL UP, BUT WITH ACTUAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE
FREEZING, LESS CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LASTING IMPACTS FROM FREEZING
RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND A SIMILAR PHENOMENA TO THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM COULD OCCUR WHERE SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE FREEZING RAIN
COULD LEAVE A TEXTURED SURFACE, GIVING MORE TRACTION TO OTHERWISE
ICED-OVER SURFACES. STILL, EXPECT SOME SLICK CONDITIONS ON ELEVATED
AND/OR UNTREATED SURFACES WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW TOTALS HAVE TRENDED
DOWNWARDS, BOTH BECAUSE OF REDUCED SNOW RATIOS AS THE UP WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR AND DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED PRECIP TYPE CONCERNS, BUT
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL REMAIN 40-70% LIKELY TO GET 2+ INCHES OF WET SNOW
TODAY. ELSEWHERE, AROUND 50% CHANCES OF EXCEEDING AN INCH. ONE OTHER
FACTOR OF CONSIDERATION WILL BE THE WINDS, AS LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE ELEVATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE HREF SHOWS 925MB WINDS OF 50 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN THIRD AND OVER THE KEWEENAW, AND
EVEN ASSUMING SOME FRICTIONAL LOSS OF WINDS, PROBABILITIES OF
BREAKING 45 MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE ARE OVER 70% PER THE HREF THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALGER,
NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT, AND LUCE COUNTIES WITH GUSTY WIND VERBIAGE
ADDED TO EXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FCST STARTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH WED,
AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS GUSTY WINDS AND A WINTRY MIX
OF PRECIP TO THE UP. A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N
HALF OF THE PLAINS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED TONIGHT THROUGH WED,
TRACKING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY WED INTO THU.
THIS SUPPORTS A STRONG SFC LOW FROM W KS TO UPPER MI BY WED NIGHT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO START OFF AS SN ALONG THE WI/MI
STATE LINE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM EDT TONIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC
ASCENT SLOWLY EXPANDING SN TO THE NE. POP COVERAGE WEAKENS NOT LONG
AFTER OUTSIDE THE S CENTRAL, DESPITE THE INCREASING SUPPORT FROM WAA
AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE 10-15KFT DROPS OFF LATE TONIGHT. LIFT IS
THEN MAXIMIZED MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE 130KT JET LIFTS OVER THE UP COUPLED WITH STRONG WAA.
DRIER AIR IN THE W WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR THIS SECOND ROUND,
BUT BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED OVER THE E. A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING
FZRA/PL/RA BEGINS TO MIX IN FROM THE S MID DAY, TRANSITIONING OVER
TO PRIMARILY RA BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S; SOME SPOT MAY REACH 40 IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE W. AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, A DRY SLOT OVER THE W FAVORS DRIER PERIODS INTO
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING BUT CAMS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT. INCREASING F-GEN ALOFT DOES LOOK TO INCREASE POPS
IN THE W LATE ON WED AS -SHRA PROGRESS E OVER THE UP. GIVEN SOME
LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
BUT NOT INCLUDED IN THE GOING FCST. WITH WET SNOWFALL OF SLR'S
AROUND 10:1, WIDESPREAD 1-2" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH UP TO 4-5"
OVER THE S CENTRAL AND KEWEENAW BY WED AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SOME SLICK ROAD CONDITIONS IMPACTING THE WED MORNING COMMUTE. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST WILL BE LIMITED TO A LIGHT GLAZE, HOWEVER A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF ICE CANT BE RULED OUT.
OUTSIDE THE WINTRY PRECIP, GUSTY EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY AS WELL ~35-45 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN THE
KEWEENAW, FAR EAST, AND IN AREAS OF SSE DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR A FEW
HOURS. GUSTS DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD, BUT INCREASE OUT OF THE W TO NW OR THU AROUND
25-35 MPH. AS THE LOW TRACKS OVER W UPPER MI WED NIGHT, DRIER AIR
EXPANDS OVER THE E. MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH 850MB TEMPS WRAP AROUND
THE SYSTEM INTO THU, AND WITH THE SUPPORT OF UPSLOPE FLOW, YIELD
SOME -SHSN OVER THE NW WIND SNOW BELTS (MAINLY FAR W UP). ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS HOLD LESS THAN 1". HIGH PRESSURE AND DECREASING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY RETURNS DRY WEATHER TO THE UP ON THU.
A TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE ON THU AMPLIFIES ON FRI,
EXTENDING INTO THE N PLAINS. THIS TROUGHING IS ANTICIPATED TO PIVOT
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH MON, BRINGING
BACK SOME -SHSN TO THE UP ON SAT. THIS TRANSITIONS OVER TO PURE LES
SHSN SUN NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -18C.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM EDT WED APR 2 2025
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE AS A SYSTEM BRINGS STRONG WINDS, LOW CEILINGS,
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO ALL TERMINALS.
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 25KTS DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PEAK AT 30-
40KTS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, HIGHEST AT KCMX. FIRST WAVE OF SNOW
WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY HAVE
TROUBLE OVERCOMING DRY AIR CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION. A SECOND WAVE
FOLLOWS BY MORNING, WHICH WILL SHIFT TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS IT
CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
SIGNALS FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN.
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS FOR THIS TO OCCUR AT KCMX/KSAW. CEILINGS/VIS
WILL FALL TO MVFR AND THEN IFR AS PRECIP CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY.
LIFR CEILINGS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT KCMX/KSAW BY AFTERNOON AND ALL
TERMINALS BY EVENING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 420 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2025
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 20-30 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GALES OF 35-40
KTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. ON WEDNESDAY, HIGH END GALES TO 40-45 KTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE WITH STORM FORCE WINDS TO 50 KTS
OVER THE EAST HALF, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL LINE. WINDS
DROP OFF INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING DOWN TO 30-45 KTS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. WINDS FALL FURTHER TO 20-
30 KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE,
QUICKLY WRAPPING AROUND OUT OF THE WEST AT 20-30 KTS. THERE IS A 40-
70% CHANCE FOR GALES TO 35 KTS OVER THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE ON
THURSDAY.
EXPECT WAVES TO BUILD UP TO 12-20FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL THIRD OF THE LAKE. WAVES SETTLE BACK
DOWN TO 4-8FT BY THURSDAY AS WINDS DROP OFF AND TURN OUT OF THE WEST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST, ALLOWING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO SETTLE
BELOW 20 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY BELOW 20 KTS
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ001-
003.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR MIZ006-007-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ THIS
AFTERNOON FOR MIZ010>013.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ014.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ243-247>250.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ244>246-265.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ251.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ264-266-267.
STORM WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR LSZ264-266-267.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ221-248-250.
SHORT TERM...GS
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...JTP
MARINE...JABLONSKI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page