277
FXUS63 KMQT 301118
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
718 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RECENT RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO RISES ON
AREA RIVERS AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING ON TYPICALLY FLOOD-
PRONE RIVERS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET AND DRY WEATHER FOR OUR WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY ANALYZED DIRECTLY OVER THE UP.
NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF SUPERIOR IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN UP
IS KEEPING IN SOME LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. WHERE SKIES
REMAIN CLOUDY, TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL BACK AS FAR AS
THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30F. ELSEWHERE (MAINLY THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
WESTERN UP) EXPECT LOWS A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER, GENERALLY IN THE
MID AND UPPER 20S.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD. SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING IN
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN UP RANGING WELL INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S. THE EASTERN UP
SHOULD STAY COOLER WITH FLOW OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN; THERE, EXPECT
HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE 40S. AS DAYTIME MIXING KICKS OFF, SOUNDINGS
SUPPORT A GOOD DROP IN DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON, AS LOW AS THE UPPER
20S IN THE WESTERN UP AND THE LOW 20S IN THE EASTERN UP. THIS WOULD
SUPPORT MINIMUM RH AS LOW AS 30%, OR POTENTIALLY LOWER IN THE
EASTERN UP, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS PICK UP TO
AROUND 20MPH THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE UP. HOWEVER, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY RECENT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE, LOW CLOUD
COVER SHOULD LIFT AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHERLY, BUT EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS
TO BEGIN TO WORK IN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THESE HEADS TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
WHILE PHASING, EVENTUALLY BRINGING US OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. MORE ON THAT BELOW.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB TROUGH WITH TWO BRANCHES OVER
THE PLAINS 00Z THU. NORTHERN BRANCH HAS A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HAS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS 00Z THU. BOTH SHORTWAVES AFFECT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
COMBINE AND MAKE A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA 00Z FRI WHICH MOVES
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SAT. APPEARS AREA WILL NOW BE
SPLIT BETWEEN THE TWO SHORTWAVES WITH THE SOUTHERN ONE AFFECTING THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA AND THE NORTHERN ONE AFFECTING THE NORTH
AND WEST. PREVIOUS FORECASTS LOOKED LIKE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WOULD
BE POSSIBLE, BUT WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, DRY AIR WILL CUT INTO
THE AMOUNTS OF QPF A BIT AND THIS IS THE ONE CHANGE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS A BIT.
IN THE EXTENDED, GFS AND ECMWF 500 MB TROUGH ON THE WEST COAST, A
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES 12Z SAT. BY 12Z SUN, A CLOSED LOW IS IN THE DESERT SW
WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. 12Z SUN WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS. THE CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES 12Z MON AND TUE WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z TUE. RIDGING THEN MOVES INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 12Z WED. TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 718 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
LINGERING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND MVFR CEILINGS AT KSAW CLEARS OUT
BY MID-MORNING, WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MEANWHILE, VFR PREVAILS AT IWD AND CMX. WINDS AT KIWD/KSAW
AND POSSIBLY KCMX SHOULD ALSO GUST NEAR 20KTS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 AM EDT WED APR 30 2025
WINDS VEER TO THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS
THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN ONTARIO, BRIEFLY TIGHTENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. GUSTS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25
KTS IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL LAKE AND LESSEN BELOW 20 KTS THURSDAY.
WINDS BACK TO THE N ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT FRIDAY MORNING,
INCREASING GUSTS BACK AROUND 25 KNOTS BEFORE TAPERING DOWN INTO
SATURDAY, WHERE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...LC
MARINE...07
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