043
FXUS63 KMQT 010557
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
157 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK: THURSDAY AND THEN THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SECOND ROUND MAY BRING SOME SNOW AS WELL, BUT ACCUMULATIONS AT
THIS TIME ARE NOT CERTAIN.
- WARMING PATTERN SETS UP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC NW, A
TROUGH IN CA AND THE DESERT SW, TROUGHING IN THE PLAINS AND A RIDGE
IN THE EASTERN U.S. THE TROUGHING IN THE PLAINS CONSISTS OF A SPLIT
FLOW WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HAVING A SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THERE NORTHERN BRANCH HAVING A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TWO BRANCHES COMBINE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY 00Z FRI. THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE PCPN DOES NOT AFFECT THE
WEST UNTIL LATE TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AFFECTS THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS IS COVERED WELL IN THE GOING FORECAST.
OVERALL, DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ON A SEPARATE NOTE, I AM RELUCTANTLY SIGNING OFF TODAY AFTER ALMOST
32 YEARS IN THE NWS. ITS BEEN A PLEASURE AS THIS WILL BE MY FINAL
FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
PRECIP RETURNS TO THE FCST ON THU AS TWO WAVES MEET AT THE GREAT
LAKES. A S WAVE LIFTS NE FROM THE S PLAINS TODAY TO THE MID MS
VALLEY THU BY MORNING AND OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT,
SENDING A SFC LOW ALONG WITH IT. THE N WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE N
ROCKIES IS AMPLIFIED BY A SHORTWAVE DIVING SE OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIE TONIGHT INTO THU. THE N WAVE THEN PROGRESSES E TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THU NIGHT, MOVING OVERHEAD FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A ~90KT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORTS LIFT FOR
BOTH WAVES, HOWEVER ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WAA WITH THE SFC LOW
SUPPLY THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIP TO THE UP ON THU. THE BETTER SUPPORT
IS EXPECTED SE OF THE CWA AND SOME CAMS KEEP MOST MEASURABLE -RA OUT
OF THE CWA COMPLETELY, BUT UP TO 0.30" IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE S-
CENTRAL AND E HALF OF UPPER MI, HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG LAKE MI. THE
SECOND ROUND PRESSES IN FROM THE W WITH THE N WAVE'S COLD FRONT.
THIS ROUND BRINGS A LOT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE
UP, ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY NOTED OVER THE W WHERE THE FRONT IS SLOWER TO PROGRESS,
YIELDING QPF RANGES FROM 0.25-0.75". A COLDER AIRMASS FILTERS IN
FROM THE NW ON FRI, BRINGING BACK SOME SN POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE
DAYTIME P-TYPE CHANGEOVER TO SN, TEMPS REACHING NEAR 40, AND HIGHER
SUN ANGLE, IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH SN ACCUMULATION WILL RESULT FROM
THIS. THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ~2" WITH ONLY
TRACE AMOUNTS IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE...IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE HIGHS ON THU ARE EXPECTED IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOW 60S FAR
W. TEMPS FALL THU NIGHT INTO THE 30S, ONLY TO WARM INTO THE 40S TO
LOW 50S WARMEST S-CENTRAL ON FRI.
DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A OMEGA BLOCK
SETS UP OVER THE CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
IT IS UNCERTAIN WHEN THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK, BUT A
DRIER PATTERN IS FAVORED TO PERSIST WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY. THIS ALSO
SETS UP A WARMER THAN NORMAL TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS WARMING INTO THE 40S BY MON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT IWD AND SAW AND
INTO THIS EVENING AT CMX. AT THAT POINT, THOUGH, RAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES. AND, MVFR WILL
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR,
ESPECIALLY AT SAW LATE IN TAF PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED APR 30 2025
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, MAINLY 20 KTS OR LESS
SAVE FOR THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS
RESIDE. WINDS THEN BACK NORTHEAST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A
LOW PRESSURE TRACK TO THE SOUTH. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE LAKE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF UP TO 20-30 KTS. 20-25 KT WINDS
SPREAD ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY BACK
NORTH. WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK NORTHWEST AS THEY DIMINISH BELOW 20
KTS FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THERE, HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE FORECAST KEEPS WINDS AT OR BELOW 20
KTS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...JABLONSKI
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...JABLONSKI
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