275
FXUS63 KMQT 011037
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
637 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK TODAY AND ANOTHER TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SECOND ROUND MAY
BRING SOME SNOW AS WELL, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.
- WARMING PATTERN SETS UP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 156 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
UPPER AIR PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 500 MB RIDGE IN THE PACIFIC NW, A
TROUGH IN CA AND THE DESERT SW, TROUGHING IN THE PLAINS AND A RIDGE
IN THE EASTERN U.S. THE TROUGHING IN THE PLAINS CONSISTS OF A SPLIT
FLOW WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH HAVING A SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THERE NORTHERN BRANCH HAVING A SHORTWAVE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE TWO BRANCHES COMBINE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BY 00Z FRI. THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE PCPN DOES NOT AFFECT THE
WEST UNTIL LATE TODAY WHILE THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AFFECTS THE EAST
HALF OF THE CWA. THIS IS COVERED WELL IN THE GOING FORECAST.
OVERALL, DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
ON A SEPARATE NOTE, I AM RELUCTANTLY SIGNING OFF TODAY AFTER ALMOST
32 YEARS IN THE NWS. ITS BEEN A PLEASURE AS THIS WILL BE MY FINAL
FORECAST DISCUSSION ISSUED.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
AFTER A FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION MAKES AN EXIT THIS EVENING,
ANOTHER WILL BE QUICK ON ITS HEELS LATER TONIGHT AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN FEATURE THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION
INITIALLY STARTING OFF AS RAIN MAY CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN UP FOR
FRIDAY. AS FAR AS PRECIP TOTALS, GUIDANCE IS FAVORING A WIDESPREAD
TENTH TO QUARTER INCH OF QPF BY THE TIME RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW COMES TO
AN END FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN UP, WHERE THE FRONT IS SLOWER TO PROGRESS, YIELDING QPF
RANGES FROM 0.25-0.75". MEANWHILE, GIVEN THE DAYTIME P-TYPE
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW, TEMPS REACHING INTO THE UPPER 30S, AND HIGHER
SUN ANGLE, IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL RESULT
FROM THIS. THE 75TH PERCENTILE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ~2" WITH ONLY
TRACE AMOUNTS IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE. IN ANY CASE, ACCUMULATIONS
WILL NOT STICK AROUND FOR LONG, WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. LOOK FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL UP AND INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A OMEGA BLOCK
SETS UP OVER THE CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
IT IS UNCERTAIN WHEN THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK, BUT A
DRIER PATTERN IS FAVORED TO PERSIST WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY. THIS ALSO
SETS UP A WARMER THAN NORMAL TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS WARMING INTO THE 40S BY MON.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THIS AFTERNOON AT SAW AND INTO THIS
EVENING AT CMX AND IWD. AT THAT POINT, THOUGH, RAIN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES. AND, MVFR WILL
BECOME THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY WITH PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR,
ESPECIALLY AT SAW. CMX COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN
LATE TONIGHT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 20KTS OR LESS BEGIN TO BACK TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS
TONIGHT OVER THE WEST HALF UP TO 20-30 KTS. 20-25 KT WINDS SPREAD
ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE FRIDAY MORNING AS THEY BACK NORTH.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK NORTHWEST AS THEY DIMINISH BELOW 20 KTS FROM
WEST TO EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FROM THERE, HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATING MUCH OF THE FORECAST KEEPS WINDS AT OR BELOW 20 KTS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...LC
AVIATION...07
MARINE...LC
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