980
FXUS63 KMQT 011914
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
314 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK
WEEK: ONE ONGOING INTO THIS EVENING, AND THEN THE SECOND LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SECOND ROUND MAY BRING SOME SNOW
TO AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN A TRACE ON GRASSY SURFACES.
- COULD SEE SOME PATCHES OF FOG DEVELOP OVER THE U.P. TONIGHT.
- WARMING PATTERN SETS UP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
AS A LOW PRESSURE GOES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A WEAKER SHORTWAVE LOW NEAR THE NORTHLAND OF
MINNESOTA WILL PHASE WITH THIS STRONGER LOW TONIGHT. THUS, RAIN IS
SLOWLY OVERCOMING THE DRIER AIR AT THE SFC AND MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE U.P. THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING FROM THE FIRST AND STRONGER LOW. WHILE THIS WILL HELP TO
KEEP THINGS COOLER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON, MUCH OF
THE NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST HAS ALREADY GOTTEN INTO THE 50S EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, WITH THE WETTER CONDITIONS ALREADY BEING
SEEN OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST, TEMPERATURES HAVE STAYED FAIRLY
STABLE, ONLY GETTING INTO THE 40S. AS THE STRONGER LOW PULLS AWAY
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC TONIGHT, THE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT
PULLS AWAY TOO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST TONIGHT. WITH NBM GUIDANCE HINTING AT
LOWER VISIBILITIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE COULD SEE SOME
PATCHES OF FG DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA; THAT BEING SAID, CONFIDENCE
ON THIS IS NOT THAT HIGH AS OF THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. AS THE
STRONGER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY, THE WEAKER SHORTWAVE PHASING
WITH IT IS PROJECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.P. AND NORTH CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT. WITH COOLER AIR MIXING
IN FROM THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT, WE MAY SEE A TRANSITION OVER TO
SNOWFALL OVER THE KEWEENAW LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING;
HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THIS TRANSITION WILL DEPEND ON HOW QUICKLY
THE COOLER AIR FROM CANADA ARRIVES. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING
IN BEHIND THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TONIGHT, EXPECT LOWS TO DROP DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
AFTER A RATHER UNPLEASANT CHILLY FRIDAY, PERSISTENT DRY SPRING
WEATHER FINALLY ARRIVES IN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND, CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE PHASING SHORTWAVES BECOME PLACED ATOP THE
GREAT LAKES AREA, REFLECTING A WEAK SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL UP KICK OFF ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS, WHICH COULD MIX WITH
SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE AND AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL, AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AT ALL. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID-40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO NEAR 50
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FAR EAST. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, PRECIP TAPERS TO
A DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF MUCH DRIER AIR
BEFORE SHUTTING OFF ENTIRELY.
DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A OMEGA BLOCK
SETS UP OVER THE CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
IT IS UNCERTAIN WHEN THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK, BUT A
DRIER PATTERN IS FAVORED TO PERSIST WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY. THIS ALSO
SETS UP A WARMER THAN NORMAL TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS WARMING INTO THE 40S BY MON. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF A TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE PNW,
BREAKING DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK MID-WEEK AND REINTRODUCING THE CLOSED
UPPER-LOW SPINNING IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY BACK INTO THE MEAN FLOW.
IF THE LOW SHIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH, COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE SOME
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN UP, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
SCENARIO (15% CHANCE POPS). WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN
EXPECTED, LIMITED TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE BACK ON THE
WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, NONE ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT AND FORECAST WIDESPREAD RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHARPLY GIVE WAY TO IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS
A LOW LIFTING THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN BRINGS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
AS COLDER AIR COMES IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WE COULD SEE A
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS FRIDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY
AT CMX WHERE THE CHANCE OF A CHANGEOVER IS THE HIGHEST. THANKFULLY,
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO BE JUST ABOVE FREEZING, NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS A REMNANT
LOW CONTINUES BR AND LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA; WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF SOME OF THE TERMINALS WENT DOWN TO FG TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE REMNANT LOW SOCKS US IN WITH MOISTURE.
WHILE SOME LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE IS POSSIBLE AT SAW TONIGHT (AROUND A
30 TO 40% CHANCE), GIVEN THAT IT'S BELOW A 50% CHANCE AND FAIRLY
MARGINAL (GUSTIER WINDS COULD MAKE IT TO THE SFC TONIGHT AS THE
WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY), DECIDED TO NOT PUT IT IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
E TO NE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-25
KTS, STRONGEST IN THE FAR WESTERN ARM, BEFORE FULLING BACKING TO THE
N AND NE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE
WINDS UP TO 25-30KTS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW 20 KNOTS IN THE EVENING AND SHIFTING TO THE NW. FROM THERE,
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE GOING
FORECAST, SAVE FOR SOME SW GUSTS TO 20 KTS AROUND ISLE ROYALE
SATURDAY PM.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...BW
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