111
FXUS63 KMQT 020638
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
238 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN, POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW, WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.
- WARMING PATTERN SETS UP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGHING CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM TODAY. AT THE SURFACE,
A LOW NEAR GEORGIA'S BAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING
CYCLONIC, UPSLOPE FLOW, WHICH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SO FAR TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST, A SURFACE TROUGH IN
MN/WESTERN WI IS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AHEAD UP AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD. THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAVE PREVENTED MUCH COOLING
OVERNIGHT; SO FAR, SURFACE OBS HAVE PUT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
TODAY, THE SURFACE LOW DOWNSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC WHILE THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND FURTHER
SEGMENTS OUT A FEW SHORTWAVES. THE NORTHERN MOST OF THESE, THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER MINNESOTA, WILL SLOWLY PRESS EAST
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN WI MIGRATES SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE REGION.
THE EFFECT OF THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THANKS TO WEAKENING LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTGOING FEATURES. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN THANKS TO WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT. STILL EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER THOUGH THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH, PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL, BUT RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS WILL TREND LIGHTER THROUGH THE DAY AND SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE NONEXISTENT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOUTH-CENTRAL AND AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TODAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
AFTER A RATHER UNPLEASANT CHILLY FRIDAY, PERSISTENT DRY SPRING
WEATHER FINALLY ARRIVES IN UPPER MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND, CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
BY FRIDAY MORNING THE PHASING SHORTWAVES BECOME PLACED ATOP THE
GREAT LAKES AREA, REFLECTING A WEAK SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL UP KICK OFF ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS, WHICH COULD MIX WITH
SNOW BEFORE SUNRISE AND AGAIN AFTER SUNSET. ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WEST AND
CENTRAL, AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE AT ALL. OTHERWISE TEMPS
WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE MID-40S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO NEAR 50
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND FAR EAST. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY, PRECIP TAPERS TO
A DRIZZLE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE ENCROACHMENT OF MUCH DRIER AIR
BEFORE SHUTTING OFF ENTIRELY.
DRY WEATHER IS FAVORED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS A OMEGA BLOCK
SETS UP OVER THE CONUS AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
IT IS UNCERTAIN WHEN THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN NEXT WEEK, BUT A
DRIER PATTERN IS FAVORED TO PERSIST WITH ADDITIONAL HIGH PRESSURE
PASSING OVER THE REGION INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY. THIS ALSO
SETS UP A WARMER THAN NORMAL TREND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S AND LOWS WARMING INTO THE 40S BY MON. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND ORIENTATION OF A TROUGH MOVING ASHORE THE PNW,
BREAKING DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK MID-WEEK AND REINTRODUCING THE CLOSED
UPPER-LOW SPINNING IN THE OH RIVER VALLEY BACK INTO THE MEAN FLOW.
IF THE LOW SHIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH, COULD POTENTIALLY MOVE SOME
SHOWERS INTO THE EASTERN UP, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS
SCENARIO (15% CHANCE POPS). WITH THE WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN
EXPECTED, LIMITED TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE BACK ON THE
WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, NONE ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY WITH RECENT AND FORECAST WIDESPREAD RAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN AT LIFR LEVELS AT SAW EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THESE ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE HOLDING STEADY AT IWD AND CMX, AND DUE TO THEIR SLOW
DETERIORATION HAVE DECIDED TO HANDLE ANY MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A TEMPO THROUGH FRI 10Z AT THOSE SITES.
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN IFR/LIFR AT CMX AND SAW AFTER FRI 10Z. AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA, SOME OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER THIS MORNING. BUT, ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINIMAL. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH ONLY POSSIBLE MVFR AT BEST BY THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 PM EDT THU MAY 1 2025
E TO NE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 15-25
KTS, STRONGEST IN THE FAR WESTERN ARM, BEFORE FULLING BACKING TO THE
N AND NE OVERNIGHT BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL INCREASE
WINDS UP TO 25-30KTS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING
BELOW 20 KNOTS IN THE EVENING AND SHIFTING TO THE NW. FROM THERE,
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE GOING
FORECAST, SAVE FOR SOME SW GUSTS TO 20 KTS AROUND ISLE ROYALE
SATURDAY PM.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...BW
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