081
FXUS63 KMQT 020800
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
400 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN, POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW, WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.
- WARMING PATTERN SETS UP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 238 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
BROAD MIDLEVEL TROUGHING CURRENTLY ANALYZED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST WILL TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM TODAY. AT THE SURFACE,
A LOW NEAR GEORGIA'S BAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IS SUPPORTING
CYCLONIC, UPSLOPE FLOW, WHICH IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE
SUPERIOR SO FAR TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST, A SURFACE TROUGH IN
MN/WESTERN WI IS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AHEAD UP AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD. THE ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND MOIST LOWER LEVELS HAVE PREVENTED MUCH COOLING
OVERNIGHT; SO FAR, SURFACE OBS HAVE PUT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN.
TODAY, THE SURFACE LOW DOWNSTREAM IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC WHILE THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH ALOFT SHIFTS EAST AND FURTHER
SEGMENTS OUT A FEW SHORTWAVES. THE NORTHERN MOST OF THESE, THE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OVER MINNESOTA, WILL SLOWLY PRESS EAST
THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY WHILE SURFACE TROUGHING OVER
WESTERN WI MIGRATES SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE REGION.
THE EFFECT OF THIS EVOLUTION WILL BE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER UPPER MICHIGAN THANKS TO WEAKENING LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTGOING FEATURES. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SNOW MIXING IN THANKS TO WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT. STILL EXPECT PRECIP TO LINGER THOUGH THROUGH THE
DAY THOUGH, PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL, BUT RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS WILL TREND LIGHTER THROUGH THE DAY AND SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE NONEXISTENT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOTED IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, PREVENTING
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. MUCH OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SOUTH-CENTRAL AND AREAS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN
HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TODAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
BY 00Z SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE OF AROUND 1017 MB (00Z GEFS MEAN)
WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN UP/WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AREA,
PUTTING AN END TO ANY LINGERING SHOWERS FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT.
STILL, ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER THAT THE 12Z HREF SHOWS 50-80%
CHANCES OF AT LEAST BKN (5/8) OR MORE CLOUD COVERAGE OVERNIGHT,
WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE BOTTOM OF THE DIURNAL CURVE SO TEMPERATURES
WONT FALL TOO FAR BELOW FREEZING.
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES
A CUTOFF LOW STALLING AROUND THE PADUCAH, KY VICINITY. FURTHER
UPSTREAM, RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS WHILE LANDFALLING TROUGHING CATCHES UP TO A
WEAK CUTOFF LOW OVER ARIZONA, MERGING INTO A DEEPER CUTOFF LOW THAT
STALLS AROUND THE CALIFORNIA CHANNEL ISLANDS. THE RESULTING PATTERN
RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN, AND WITH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
BEING UPSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL RIDGING, PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN GOING FORWARD TO BE DRIER AND WARMER
THAN NORMAL. THIS BEGINS SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE 1020S PER THE GEFS, AND THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE WILL CAUSE
CLEAR SKIES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOCAL WIND ENHANCEMENTS AROUND
ISLE ROYALE, WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT SATURDAY, RESULTING IN THE
CAMS RESOLVING A LAKE BREEZE. THIS WILL HELP KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE LAKESHORES ONLY TOPPING OUT AROUND 50 DEGREES WHILE THE
INTERIOR (ESPECIALLY INTERIOR WEST) CLIMBS INTO THE MID AND UPPER
50S, AND THE NBM CALLS FOR OVER 50% CHANCES OF THE INTERIOR WEST
MAKING IT INTO THE 60S.
DESPITE THE APPEARANCE OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BEING AN OMEGA
BLOCK, A TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA IS EXPECTED TO HELP KICK OUT THE
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS, SUCH THAT THE RIDGE AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 06Z MONDAY. ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGHING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT
OVER THE REGION, WITH NBM GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE REMAINS THE HIGH
PRESSURE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR RHS TO FALL
SIGNIFICANTLY AS SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO 4-5 KFT INTO A LAYER OF
NEAR-0C DEW POINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ON A WARMING TREND
(NBM HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S INTERIOR WEST!), THE COMBINATION OF
SLIGHTLY INCREASED WINDS, LOWER DEW POINTS, AND WARMING TEMPERATURES
MEANS THAT SUNDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
SOME MITIGATING FACTORS: FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH, THE NBM SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE SHORELINE FROM
THE INTERIOR (MEANING NEAR-SHORE LOCATIONS MAY NOT DROP THEIR RHS AS
MUCH), AND FAIRLY WEAK WINDS UP TO AROUND 850-800 MB MAY LIMIT THE
GUSTS MORE THAN EXPECTED. FOR NOW, WILL BE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD
"LIMITED" FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES OF "ELEVATED" FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN THE INTERIOR WEST, BUT FIRE
PARTNERS SHOULD MONITOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD ESPECIALLY AS HI-RES
MODELS BEGIN TO PROVIDE CLARITY ON THE WIND SITUATION.
DESPITE THE LOW NUMBER OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER THE CONUS, SPREAD
IN THE MODELS BEGINS TO SHOW AROUND THE MONDAY TIME FRAME AS THE
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS DISAGREE ON THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE MAJOR FEATURES, PARTICULARLY THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW. A FEW (10-20%) SHOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER MIDWEST DRIFTING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UP MONDAY (LREF 90TH
PERCENTILE QPF: 0.15") BEFORE BEING SWEPT AWAY BY A TROUGH ALOFT
SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT BY WEDNESDAY. NBM POPS FOR ANY
INDIVIDUAL 6-HOUR PERIOD BEYOND MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE SUB-25%
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE UP, AS THE STRENGTH OF ANY SURFACE
FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
BATTLING DRY AIR. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL SHOULD BE
LOW-IMPACT, PROVIDING SOME RELIEF TO THE LOCAL STREAMS AND
RIVERS THAT ARE ELEVATED FROM MELTED SNOWPACK. DESPITE THE
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS, THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD:
GENERALLY DRIER, GENERALLY WARMER (NBM HIGHS FREQUENTLY 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS (EURO ENSEMBLE MEAN
GUSTS ONLY RARELY EXCEEDING 15 MPH).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
CONDITIONS REMAIN AT LIFR LEVELS AT SAW EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THESE ARE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A LOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE HOLDING STEADY AT IWD AND CMX, AND DUE TO THEIR SLOW
DETERIORATION HAVE DECIDED TO HANDLE ANY MVFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A TEMPO THROUGH FRI 10Z AT THOSE SITES.
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN IFR/LIFR AT CMX AND SAW AFTER FRI 10Z. AS
COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA, SOME OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATER THIS MORNING. BUT, ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINIMAL. LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH ONLY POSSIBLE MVFR AT BEST BY THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTED SURFACE LOW, LINGERING NORTH WINDS GUST TO
25 KT THIS MORNING. APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WINDS BELOW
20 KT THIS AFTERNOON, AND WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE PRESSURE LOWS
REMAINING FAR FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, WINDS REMAIN AT OR BELOW
20 KT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT WAVES OF 4-6 FT FOR THE
CENTRAL REGION OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
FALLING BELOW 3 FT BY TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...JTP
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...GS
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