703
FXUS63 KMQT 030514
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
114 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN, POTENTIALLY MIXED WITH SNOW, WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY.
- WARMING PATTERN SETS UP THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND 70S, AND LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. RHS DOWN TO
30% OR LESS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR WEST THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
RAP ANALYSIS AND GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL TROUGHING EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM JAMES BAY DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH MULTIPLE
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. AT THE SURFACE, A ~1000MB LOW PRESSURE IS
PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC, WHILE A WEAK INVERTED SFC
TROUGH PEELS BACK INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BROAD SYNOPTIC LIFT,
UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW, AND CAA HAS KICKED OFF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH LIGHT SNOW BEING REPORTED EARLIER VIA THE HERMAN, MI COOP
OBSERVER. ADDITIONALLY, A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION FROM THE STEWART
J. CORT REPORTED A RAIN/SNOW MIX WHILE PASSING BETWEEN THE KEWEENAW
AND ISLE ROYALE. TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO CRACK 40 ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES WHILE TEMPS HOVER NEAR 50 IN
MENOMINEE COUNTY.
THROUGH TONIGHT, CLOUDY SKIES AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL HANG ON A
BIT LONGER, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST-CENTRAL UP WHERE UPSLOPING MAY
PROVIDE A SLIGHT BOOST TO OVERALL LIGHT QPF (<0.05"). CANT RULE OUT
SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXED IN AS TEMPERATURES SLOWLY COOL TONIGHT.
MOREOVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE KEWEENAW AND CENTRAL/EAST UP WHERE PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE, SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE NOSE INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL INTRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MUCH WARMER AND QUIETER
WEATHER OUTLINED BELOW.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER DOMINATES THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE ROLLING INTO THE U.P. STARTING SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
IN, EXPECT THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER TO CLEAR AWAY, ALLOWING SUNNY
SKIES TO DOMINATE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
OCCURRING WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE MUCH
MORE PLEASANT TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY SINCE THE HIGH WILL SUPPRESS
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID, WITH LAKE
TEMPERATURES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN BEING AROUND THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S RESPECTIVELY, EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE LAKESHORES BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING COOLER
AIR TO THESE AREAS. WITH THE COOL MARINE LAYER CEASING TEMPERATURE
INCREASES ALONG THE LAKESHORES, EXPECT THESE AREAS TO GENERALLY TOP
OUT IN THE 50S. MEANWHILE, THE INTERIOR WEST COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH UP TO AROUND 60, WITH THE NEARLY CALM WINDS
MAKING IT NEARLY A PERFECT DAY TO ENJOY A WALK OR HIKE. THE ONE
CONCERN WE COULD SEE SATURDAY IS RHS BOTTOMING TO AROUND 30% IN THE
INTERIOR WEST BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT THE HREF
SHOWS ONLY UP TO A 10% CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING, NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTED AT THIS TIME.
GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS,
ALTHOUGH A LIGHT LAND BREEZE OVER THE FAR WEST MAY KEEP THINGS CLOSER
TO 40. SHOULD THE INTERIOR COOL ENOUGH, GIVEN THE RECENT
PRECIPITATION AND WET CONDITIONS, WE COULD SEE PATCHY FOG FORM OVER
THE AREA, PARTICULARLY THE SOUTH CENTRAL.
MOVING INTO SUNDAY, EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR DAY IN COMPARISON TO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, EXPECT EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO THE AREA AS THE HIGH
BEGINS TO LEAVE THE AREA TO THE EAST; EXPECT HIGHS NEAR THE
LAKESHORES TO INCREASE INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S AS ENE TO NE'RLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BRINGING THE
LAKE BREEZE FURTHER INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST. HOWEVER, IN
THE WEST, EXPECT THE HIGHS TO SOAR INTO THE 70S, EVEN AS ENE TO
NE'RLY LIGHT FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WITH CONDITIONS BEING A LITTLE DRIER OVER THE INTERIOR WEST ON
SUNDAY, WE MAY SEE SOME WIDESPREAD LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
OVER THE INTERIOR WEST BY THE AFTERNOON GIVEN THAT RHS LOOK TO
APPROACH 30% FOR A MINIMUM. TAKING THIS, THE INCREASING WINDS, AND
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO ACCOUNT, WE COULD FLIRT WITH A MORE
WIDESPREAD LIMITED TO ISOLATED-IN-SPOTS ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER EVENT
IN THE INTERIOR WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONE SAVING GRACE IS THE
FAIRLY RECENT PRECIPITATION KEEPING THINGS FAIRLY SOGGY ACROSS THE
AREA. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SEEM TO KEEP RHS A FEW
PERCENT HIGHER THAN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THAT BEING
SAID, WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RH FORECAST. EXPECT A
PRETTY SIMILAR SUNDAY NIGHT IN COMPARISON TO SATURDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY GOING TO BE A LITTLE BIT
WARMER AS CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
LATE.
A LOW PRESSURE LIFTING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING SCATTERED TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHILE GUIDANCE SHOWS
REMNANT HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (10 TO 25%
CHANCE ACCORDING TO THE NBM). WITH THE CLOUD COVER MOVING OVERHEAD,
WE MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE MUTED ON MONDAY IN COMPARISON TO
SUNDAY, BUT WE SHOULD STILL SEE UP TO THE 50S ALONG THE LAKESHORES
TO AT LEAST THE 60S IN THE INTERIOR AREAS. IN ADDITION, LIMITED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS COULD REAPPEAR ON MONDAY, BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE, THIS ISN'T AS LIKELY TO
OCCUR. THE ZENITH OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION LOOKS TO REACH US
TUESDAY AS 850MB AROUND 10C TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPERATURES OF AROUND
60 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE INTERIOR
WEST, ESPECIALLY AS THE CLOUD COVER RETREATS FROM THE U.P. FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARDS ONTARIO.
WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT (MORE THAN LIKELY DRY) WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE U.P. FROM THE NORTH AROUND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY MAY,
WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY ONLY GETTING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE NEXT WEEK, EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO END THE EXTENDED PERIOD. LOOKING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND TO THE WEEK AFTERWARDS, THE CPC SHOWS US HAVING
GREATER CHANCES FOR BOTH WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS. THIS MAY BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF SPRING AS THIS
COULD CREATE WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE U.P.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
CIGS HAVE RETURNED TO VFR LEVELS AT IWD AND CMX AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE STARTS TO SCATTER OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, FOG FORMATION
WILL NOW BE A THREAT THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES
LIKELY AT CMX AND SAW. FOR NOW, WILL TREND TOWARD MVFR VISIBILITIES
AT IWD, BUT THESE MAY HAVE TO BE LOWERED AS WELL WITH FUTURE TAF
UPDATES. AT SAW, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN MORE PERSISTENT
OUTSIDE OF ANY FOG, SO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH NO IMPACT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 2 2025
OUTSIDE OF SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY ISLE ROYALE
ON SATURDAY, EXPECT THE LIGHT WINDS OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ROLLS THROUGH THE
REGION. EVEN AS A LOW LIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, EXPECT REMNANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES TO KEEP THE WINDS AT 20 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WON'T BE UNTIL A COLD
FRONT PUSHES DOWN FROM CANADA AROUND WEDNESDAY THAT WE COULD SEE
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS BACK ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS DOMINATE THE REST OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE REGION.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...JTP/TDUD
MARINE...TAP
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