441
FXUS63 KMQT 031707
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
107 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.
- WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RHS COULD FALL TO
THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ON CLEAR SKY DAYS, THOUGH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND THE MOIST GROUND LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS CLEARING OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE U.P. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (AS SEEN ON THE
MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY). AS THIS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON,
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FLOW OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO THE LAKE BREEZE
DOMINATING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT CAMS AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NOW HAVE THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAVING A
MUCH HARDER TIME GETTING INLAND THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE PLEASANT AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.P. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS TREND TOWARD MORE MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SFC EVER-SO-
SLIGHTLY, WE COULD STILL SEE RHS BOTTOM OUT TO 30% OR LESS IN THE
FAR WEST; THAT BEING SAID, CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING NOW ARE ONLY UP
TO 10% OVER THERE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE HREF.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S OVER
THE EAST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL. IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE, WITH A WEAK LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXPECT THE LOWS TO GET CLOSER TO 40. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SO MUCH TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
AND EAST, WE COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES COULD
POTENTIALLY REACH THE DEWPOINT IN SPOTS.
LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
TONIGHT, THE CONUS 500MB PATTERN MUCH RESEMBLES AN OMEGA BLOCK, WITH
A DIGGING TROUGH CENTERED ON THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, RIDGING OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS, AND A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE BLOCK IS NOT AS STUBBORN AS TYPICAL OMEGA BLOCKS, AS THE
FLOW OVER THE WEST COAST SPLITS, WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMING A
FOUR CORNERS CUTOFF LOW WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH KICKS THE
PLAINS RIDGING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
ALLOWING THE WAVE PATTERN TO PROGRESS. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH PUSHES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY MIDWEEK, AND WHILE THE
SURFACE FEATURES AS A RESULT ARE NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
PRECIPITATION PURPOSES, IT WILL BE THE WINDIEST PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST. HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL REINTRODUCE
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE REGION FOR THE LATEWEEK PERIOD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
BEGINNING TONIGHT, A WEAK CLIPPER LOW OF AROUND 1008-1010MB WILL
DISSIPATE OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE
FACE OF LINGERING 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UP. WHILE THIS LOW
POSES NO PRECIPITATION THREAT, THIS WILL BRIEFLY RAMP UP
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR, PARTICULARLY TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF ISLE ROYALE WHERE WIND FUNNELING CAN
OCCUR. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST HALF UP
WILL CREATE SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW THAT WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 FROM IRONWOOD TO ABOUT ONTONAGON AND ALSO
FROM BARAGA/L'ANSE TO MARQUETTE DESPITE CLEAR SKIES THAT WOULD
OTHERWISE SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. OTHERWISE,
LOWS IN THE MID 30S ARE EXPECTED.
SUNDAY, WITH THE LOW PRESSURE DISSIPATED, A REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH
CAN SWING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO UNRESTRICTED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA.
CONCERN IN THE FORECAST YESTERDAY WAS WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THAT HIGH AND THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
UPSTREAM TROUGHING. HOWEVER, SINCE THEN, MODEL TRENDS HAVE KEPT THAT
LOW FURTHER AWAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES, SO THE GRADIENT HAS SLACKENED
AND THUS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER. WHILE THE MAGNITUDE OF
WINDS HAS FALLEN, CAMS DO SHOW THAT A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED, WHICH
COULD CAUSE SOME WIND DIRECTION PREDICTABILITY ISSUES. THE RH
FORECAST HAS TRENDED UPWARDS, AS EVEN CONSIDERING THE NBM10TH
PERCENTILE TDS ONLY BRINGS RHS TO THE MID-30S PERCENT RANGE. STILL,
SOME ATTENTION SHOULD BE PAID TO THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST, AS IF
RHS FALL SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, IT COULD INSPIRE A MORE AGGRESSIVE RH
FORECAST FOR THE TOMORROW PERIOD. FOR NOW, ONLY "LIMITED" FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY FOR THE INTERIOR WEST
AND INTERIOR FAR EAST AWAY FROM THE LAKE BREEZE'S COOLING EFFECTS.
MONDAY STILL KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCING THE REGION FOR THE MOST
PART, BUT SOME WOBBLE IN THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
CONUS CUTOFF LOW DOES BRING ABOUT 15% CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UP. EVEN IF NO PRECIPITATION FALLS, THE
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ALOFT WILL INTRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL
KEEP RHS FROM FALLING AS MUCH. NBM WINDS OF AROUND 5 MPH WOULD ALSO
SUGGEST ANOTHER LAKE BREEZE DAY, ESPECIALLY AS HIGHS SOAR TO NEAR 70
FOR THE INTERIOR UP.
UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO GROW IN THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD FROM ABOUT
TUESDAY AS THE ENSEMBLES STRUGGLE TO AGREE ON EXACTLY HOW THE LARGE
CUTOFF LOWS WILL INTERACT. FOR NOW, EXPECTING ROUGHLY 15-30% CHANCES
THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGHING WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE LATE-TUESDAY/EARLY-
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK TO BE THE WINDIEST DAY OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS STOUT 1030S MB HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BEHIND
THE SURFACE TROUGH, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. EURO ENSEMBLE
MEAN GUSTS WEDNESDAY ARE AROUND 25 MPH WITH AROUND 20% CHANCES OF
GALES ON LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ROBUST NORTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO MAKE IT
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE MID-40S, THOUGH THE
INTERIOR WEST COULD STILL APPROACH 60. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
THE LAST OF THE MVFR CIGS CLEAR OUT AT SAW IN A COUPLE OF HOURS,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THAT BEING SAID, WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG POP UP AT SAW
AND EVEN POTENTIALLY CMX LATE TONIGHT, THOUGH THAT LOOKS TO ERODE
AWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE LAKE AND LAND BREEZES BEING THE MAIN DRIVER
IN THE WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
UNDER A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 20 KT OR LESS
THIS MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON, AN APPROACHING WEAK CLIPPER LOW OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL BRING 20-25 KT SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE LAKE, PARTICULARLY AROUND ISLE ROYALE WHERE
FUNNELING OF WINDS CAN OCCUR. AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AND THE
LOW DISSIPATES, EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS UNTIL TUESDAY
NIGHT, WHERE A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE LAKE WILL BRING NORTHERLY
GUSTS TO 25 KT WITH 20% CHANCES OF GALES FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING THE RETURN OF MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TO THE LAKE.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...GS
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