304
FXUS63 KMQT 040000
AFDMQT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
800 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EAST
LATE TONIGHT.
- WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RHS FALL TO THE 30
PERCENT OR LOWER RANGE ON CLEAR SKY DAYS, THOUGH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND THE MOIST GROUND WILL LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
- WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BE INCREASED AS THE GENERALLY MOIST
GROUND ACROSS OUR AREA DRIES OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA IS CLEARING OUT THE LOW-LEVEL
STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE U.P. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON (AS SEEN ON THE
MOST RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY). AS THIS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON,
EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC FLOW OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO THE LAKE BREEZE
DOMINATING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT CAMS AND
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE NOW HAVE THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE HAVING A
MUCH HARDER TIME GETTING INLAND THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR MORE PLEASANT AND WARMER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL U.P. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO GET INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. WHILE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES ITS TREND TOWARD MORE MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE SFC EVER-SO-
SLIGHTLY, WE COULD STILL SEE RHS BOTTOM OUT TO 30% OR LESS IN THE
FAR WEST; THAT BEING SAID, CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING NOW ARE ONLY UP
TO 10% OVER THERE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE HREF.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN DROP DOWN INTO THE MID TO LOWER 30S OVER
THE EAST AND INTERIOR CENTRAL. IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR SHORELINE, WITH A WEAK LAND BREEZE DEVELOPING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXPECT THE LOWS TO GET CLOSER TO 40. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT SO MUCH TONIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL
AND EAST, WE COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES COULD
POTENTIALLY REACH THE DEWPOINT IN SPOTS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER MARKS THE
EXTENDED PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEK. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE
EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY
NEXT WEEK, REMNANT RIDGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LOOKS TO KEEP US
GENERALLY PRECIPITATION-FREE. AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
AROUND WEDNESDAY, A REX BLOCK LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST TO FINISH OUT THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS THE ZENITH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN TODAY
AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO PUMP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS A
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TOWARDS LOWER MICHIGAN,
LIGHT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, WITH THE LAKE BREEZE ENHANCING THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE AIR OVERHEAD BEING DRIER AND TEMPERATURES BECOMING WARMER,
WE COULD SEE RHS BOTTOM OUT INTO THE UPPER 20% RANGE OR POTENTIALLY
EVEN LOWER IN THE INTERIOR WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SINCE
THIS AREA WILL BE PROTECTED FROM THE AFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE
BRINGING THE MARINE LAYER ONSHORE. HOWEVER, WITH THE WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT AND THE GROUND STILL BEING FAIRLY SOGGY AS OF THE TIME OF THIS
WRITING, EXPECT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE FAR WEST TO BE
LIMITED SUNDAY AFTERNOON, EVEN THOUGH WE COULD SEE HIGHS INTO THE
70S OVER THERE (60S ELSEWHERE).
WITH THE GUIDANCE SHIFTING THE AFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW A
LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS REACHING
THE AREA (NAMELY THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST) ARE NOW AROUND 15% OR
LESS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS EXPECTED NOW
(AND THUS DECREASED CLOUD COVER), WE MAY ALSO SEE A LIMITED FIRE
WEATHER DAY ONCE AGAIN ON MONDAY AS RHS BOTTOM OUT TO AROUND 30% IN
THE INTERIOR WEST. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS STILL REMAINING LIGHT, NO
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS THE
RIDGING WEAKENS OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY, EXPECT MORE MOIST CONDITIONS AT
THE SFC AS THE LOW NOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN
ONTARIO.
BEHIND THIS LOW, A COLD FRONT DROPPING DOWN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO
LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY. WITH ADDITIONAL
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT RUNNING INTO THE REMNANT RIDGING OVER
US, EXPECT THIS COLD FRONT TO BE DRY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS AROUND A 15%
CHANCE THAT WE COULD SEE A STRAY RAIN SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE
NORTHERN HALF. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR ONLY GETTING INTO THE 40S
WHILE THE MORE INTERIOR/SOUTHERN AREAS ARE STILL PROJECTED TO GET
INTO THE 50S.
MOVING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, A REX BLOCK LOOKS TO SCOOT
ON OVERHEAD AS LOWS DEVELOP NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF ALASKA. WITH VERY DRY AIR FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVING INTO
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, WE COULD SEE MORE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
DEVELOP THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY EVEN FRIDAY TOO; THE NBM ALREADY
SHOWS RHS DROPPING DOWN BELOW 30% FOR THURSDAY (THE NBM HAS
HISTORICALLY BEEN TOO WET WITH RHS)! WITH TEMPERATURES BUILDING INTO
THE 60S AND 70S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WE MAY SEE SOME GREATER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS THE MOIST GROUND WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING ACROSS
THE MOST OF THE AREA RIGHT NOW MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER BY LATE
NEXT WEEK/THIS NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOG THREAT
AND MENTION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AT CMX AND SAW.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 303 PM EDT SAT MAY 3 2025
OUTSIDE OF SOME SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS NEAR ISLE ROYALE
THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY OF 20 KNOTS OR LESS TO
DOMINATE THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. AT LEAST REMNANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS OVER
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT WON'T BE UNTIL A DRY (ONLY 15%
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS) COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WHEN WE SEE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LAKE TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THOUGH, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT
AT 20 KNOTS OR LESS AGAIN AND TO REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS A REX BLOCK (A BLOCK OF HIGH PRESSURE) MOVES OVERHEAD.
MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TAP
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...TAP
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